Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You guys hear me talk about "no man's land" and that's what happens between 2 unphased pieces of upper level energy. There's always an area of subsidence and dry air between them. This inhibits lift and precipitation. Csnavywx described it perfectly. If that shifts west just a little more it's going to work much better here. It's not impossible. The trend has been to back up that dead spot as the storm bullies its way north. It's a boxing match. Both nams tried to set up a band or 2 west of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What Hoffman said. No matter how the models tweak the system, moisture hits a wall near 95 and can’t seem to get beyond it. We’ve seen that before. It’s maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is 19” for Norfolk tho Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is It's the 3km NAM. The only thing that will verify is the Brookhaven to Tolland to ORH to concord deathband, because it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Last 2 3k NAM runs: A little inconsistent . Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 As per the NAM, the storm will start shifting east now unless other 0z models make a significant jump west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Make sure to use the Ferrier SLR product from TropicalTidbits. It's superior over a straight 10:1 SLR as it takes into account riming and mixing. It's also capped at 10:1, which prevents the the totals from being artificially inflated by high-biased SLR ratios on the backside of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is I like this map better. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010300&fh=44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 With all the caveats that this is one run of one model that doesn’t have a great track record - Thursday morning’s commute would be a mess here. New snow, even if just an inch, with 40mph gusts would be enough to really screw up the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: With all the caveats that this is one run of one model that doesn’t have a great track record - Thursday morning’s commute would be a mess here. New snow, even if just an inch, with 40mph gusts would be enough to really screw up the roads. Low temps too. Snow falls in the low 20s (if it falls). We all know what happened during the Jan 20th inch of snow during the afternoon commute. Probably fell at a bit colder temperatures though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Last 2 3k NAM runs: A little inconsistent . Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. I live 19 miles west of 95..so it’s past 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: I live 19 miles west of 95..so it’s past 95 Sorry, meant to say the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Last 2 3k NAM runs: A little inconsistent . Good trend though. Too bad it's pretty tough to even get precip past I-95 given this setup. Always divide the NAM precip by half, you'll be less disappointed when the flakes stop falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow. If the GFS takes a decent (not a tick) jump west—-it’s game on. Quite an important run coming up assuming the upper disturbance serves as a pull as opposed to a kicker. I know, I just made a Hail Mary sound like a screen pass but I’m trying to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The nams may have made a big jump and that's obviously suspect but the reasons they did started inside of 24 hours. Rgem and gefs are next in line to mess with our minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. How much worse can our luck be? Trust me, that was rhetorical because a rational answer to that question would sadly take hours to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Sorry, meant to say the heavier precip. I get snow so happy as a pig in sh**...digital for now but I do like the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I've always believed my area was out with this storm but have been intrigued by this beast. I'm gonna be honest some of these runs are pissing me off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 IF the NAM is believable, it wouldn't take much of a northwest trend over the next 4 runs or so to push Winter Storm Warning level snows into our area. I mean, look at the huge jump it just made from 18z to 0z. Easton went up 8 inches. Places just west of the bay in So MD went from a dusting to a warning level storm. There are reasons for serious hope. I'm not sure if that's a good thing at this point or not but....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM with three versions to choose from is a weenies dream. I’m still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said: Always divide the NAM precip by half, you'll be less disappointed when the flakes stop falling Problem would be solved by 3 changes.....location, location, location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We should probably distinguish between the 12k NAM and 3k NAM in this discussion. From what I've seen, the 3k NAM is a big improvement over the 12k. If one of the two NAMs is going to give me snow, that's the one I'd want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Wow. If the GFS takes a decent (not a tick) jump west—-it’s game on. Quite an important run coming up assuming the upper disturbance serves as a pull as opposed to a kicker. I know, I just made a Hail Mary sound like a screen pass but I’m trying to keep hope alive. It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is one of those storms where you just say screw the models and realize it’s meant to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct. Do we have any analogs for storms with kickers like this? Do we know if the model overdoes the speed of the kicker? This could be the difference between 1" and 4" for DC. 4" seems like the biggest stretch either way atm. Only storm I can think of is Jan 2000, but that's still different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Oh hai der 00z RGEM at 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Problem would be solved by 3 changes.....location, location, location! As a former Realtor i couldnt agree more Happy 20k Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: This is one of those storms where you just say screw the models and realize it’s meant to be. That's not in the weenie handbook....hey everybody, we have a grown up in here. Let's gettem'!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yoda, please translate the pencil and crayon scribbles into inches. k thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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