AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Dry slot is unlikely and model error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Between hours 36 & 37, Nam jumps the slp about 200+ miles east....wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The trends still remain good IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Between hours 36 & 37, Nam jumps the slp about 200+ miles east....wtf Convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Turns east after 34 hours. But trends were good early. Use weenie rule, discard what it does later. The track was about as good as we can hope to 33 hours then it turned east. Had it continued North another 50 miles before the turn we would have done ok. Also it's still showing a very compact qpf depiction on the west side. Bob did an excellent job earlier explaining why that might happen. Typically the nam track would get D.C. into at least a moderate event. It's a bit east for a big one but shouldn't be on the fringe given that track if it had a more typical ccb. Unfortunately the interaction with the northern stream low might screw us over in much the same way miller bs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Between hours 36 & 37, Nam jumps the slp about 200+ miles east....wtf It looked great I was on the edge of my couch then we both fell off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Between hours 36 & 37, Nam jumps the slp about 200+ miles east....wtf thats a large storm to get kicked that far east so quickly. Nam3k looking good so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Gets a little stupid with the deepening rate starting around tau 30 though. Still suffering a bit with diabatic/latent-heat driven feedback issues if I had to guess. Important changes in the upper levels through that time, however. Definitely pulls the powerhouse elevated WAA in closer to the coast, to the point of mixing in sleet at ORF/LFI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, mosi76 said: I mean it is the NAM Actually it’s not too far away from NAM wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Big shift west in 3k Nam at 27h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Convection... The whole problem with the surface low is that it reminds me of a tropical feature, which is aiding in the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the problem i think is not how west it goes..its how far north it gets before it turns due east. If we can get it to go North about 50-100 more miles. This run gave me an hour of snow lol Exactly...you ninjad me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at this composite radar loop vs qpf totals, does that mean it's running into dry air near the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: thats a large storm to get kicked that far east so quickly. Nam3k looking good so far lol it's just the lack of a phase. you can see the benefits of the phase as it gets to new england. still pretty interesting considering we still have 24 hrs left of trends in either direction. i can picture this being like a hurricane where the western extent isn't nearly as impactful without a phase of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k looks decent so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Gets a little stupid with the deepening rate starting around tau 30 though. Still suffering a bit with diabatic/latent-heat driven feedback issues if I had to guess. Important changes in the upper levels through that time, however. Definitely pulls the powerhouse elevated WAA in closer to the coast, to the point of mixing in sleet at ORF/LFI. One of the best things from the run was it goes to rain in VA beach and cape cod. Those are musts. We're not getting snow if Va beach stays all snow. That would be very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow 966 50 miles off of obx and flurries heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow It’s funny because you’re not even exaggerating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snowYou out past 33? Seems to be filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 this is maddening..973 practically touching the NC coast and we have clouds.....other winters, you a 998 in the same position and we are getting heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Convection... That and the NS s/w starts kicking it out to sea. The dprog/dt from the last run shows just how important slowing down that northern wave is. Another bump or two west and we're talking more serious snows into the eastern metro. As it is, if you're near the bay, this run is pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 963 pretty close. It should be a straight blizzard here. It’s not but Jesus what do we have to do. How much further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Given the virga fest that shows on the WxBell maps I assume dry air is our killer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I really like what both nams did through 24 hours in the upperlevels. If we're going to get anything on the edge, that was a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'll be very surprised if it takes the Nam 3k track and it doesn't snow west of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I really like what both nams did through 24 hours in the upperlevels. If we're going to get anything on the edge, that was a good start. Time....running out If the rest of the models start off with similar changes to the Nam, we could see a better result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow The surface track isn't our biggest problem anymore. It's the way the system interacts with the northern stream low. They aren't phasing in time for us instead the circulation around the lakes low is messing with the moisture transport into our area. Put a high there and we would be looking at a nice event here. It's the same reason we get that super compact ccb with developing miller b storms that screw us over when the primary is west of us. Only this time it's a miller a but having a northern steam system to our northwest mutes it in the same way. Have to hope models are wrong about that. Some runs were having the trough interact in a way that was a capture more then a kicker and pulled moisture north up the trough. That was another way. It's a delicate interaction but most runs now have it an unfavorable one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. Guess where that 2” ball is Wes would like this run a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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