THEREALTOR1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016. Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period. Since that I don’t think it’s as good Copy that. I knew there was an upgrade, that wasn't very popular, and just couldn't remember when it took place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016. Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period. Since that I don’t think it’s as good The thing is, we compare the "old euro" with the new one versus the old gfs, and it was better. I just think the upgrades to the gfs make the euro far less impressive. Gfs is just not as prone to wacky high snow totals 3+ days out that the euro has been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm pulling for the .1 to HGR You and me both brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 No way I’m buying this but the 21z RAP gets 0.25” to DC through the end of its run (6a Thursday). And 0.1 out to western Loudoun and Frederick, MD counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 38 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Me too, lol. It's early, but the 'easterners' have really taken a nice lead over the I-81 crew in snowfall so far. I went back and compared MRB seasonal snowfall to BWI to see how common it is for the metro areas to exceed here for a season. 21 times in 92 years BWI has had more, so more common than I would have guessed. Might be one of those years. That is interesting. That number would probably be significantly lower at DCA considering they cant measure snow there and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: You and me both brother. Yup BRING IT WEST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is what I was talking about earlier from the BOS AFD: Quote Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. Will it matter for us? Don't know, but this is still an intriguing tidbit to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 it would be legendary if dc somehow gets 2-4" from this. that would really create a lot of debate. certainly doesn't look like it, though. gotta trust the models, seasoned mets, and active hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like a pretty good bet lower DE will see 5-6". His criteria to head there was a foot. So since that does not look likely, it is still Oakland. Yup, locked in to go to Oakland this time. Funny though over the last two winters now how I have had the opportunity to chase good snow in Millville, DE. They are on a run for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS did have a subtle but fundamental change @ 18z compared to all previous runs the last few days. This is the last 4 run trend gif. You can see what 18z did. It pulled the 540 contour under and also backed the 534 contour. That opened the door for the westward shift with the precip shield. The shield meets less resistance. It's not a door open but a door crack kind of thing and something I will definitely pay attention to @ 0z. Also, you can see the trough axis keeps incrementally bumping west as well. These tiny little changes could end up making a big difference in our yards. Any by big difference I mean snow instead of no snow. I jumped to quick to the conclusion earlier with the dominant surface low being the furthest west and how that could easily change in future runs. But in reality the upper levels made a nice jump in our favor for allowing the western precip to push further west. We can only hope this is a sign and not a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. No op is good with synoptic events beyond 96 hours and are very prone to large swings. Inside of 72 it's typically hard to beat the euro in general but I have seen exactly what you are talking about with slow adjustments. Personally, I think the GFS is much better than people give it credit for. It's a very good model. Prone to busts like any op but some people rag the hell out of it and all that tells me is their bias gets in the way of their ability to properly use the tools provided. We'll see how this storm goes down but it sure seems to me that the GFS has lead the way with consistency. It's been a rock in general while other globals have moved around quite a bit. I would agree that GFS needs a bit more credit on any given day. That said, it was very poor at the surface compared to the Euro throughout December with the active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: it would be legendary if dc somehow gets 2-4" from this. that would really create a lot of debate. certainly doesn't look like it, though. gotta trust the models, seasoned mets, and active hobbyists. Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. yea was just looking at the post. this storm almost seems like a quasi jan 25/boxing day mix. i guess the question at this point is how much of that will be jan 25 versus a whiff. they do carry similar vibes...to me at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Anyone check out https://twitter.com/crankywxguy last few tweets? His maps showing the various moving pieces of the puzzle seem to indicate a more western track is indeed possible. Def interesting to look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere currently as opposed to all the hand wringing over the wobbles occurring during every model run (not criticizing, I do it too haha...). Thoughts on his ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, MetalCapsFan said: Anyone check out https://twitter.com/crankywxguy last few tweets? His maps showing the various moving pieces of the puzzle seem to indicate a more western track is indeed possible. Def interesting to look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere currently as opposed to all the hand wringing over the wobbles occurring during every model run (not criticizing, I do it too haha...). Thoughts on his ideas? No cloud is left untweeted about by this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS did have a subtle but fundamental change @ 18z compared to all previous runs the last few days. This is the last 4 run trend gif. You can see what 18z did. It pulled the 540 contour under and also backed the 534 contour. That opened the door for the westward shift with the precip shield. The shield meets less resistance. It's not a door open but a door crack kind of thing and something I will definitely pay attention to @ 0z. Also, you can see the trough axis keeps incrementally bumping west as well. These tiny little changes could end up making a big difference in our yards. Any by big difference I mean snow instead of no snow. I jumped to quick to the conclusion earlier with the dominant surface low being the furthest west and how that could easily change in future runs. But in reality the upper levels made a nice jump in our favor for allowing the western precip to push further west. We can only hope this is a sign and not a blip. Bob its posts like this with the visuals to further enhance the explanation that make the Mid-Atlantic top notch for knowledgeable people to learn from. Even if things don’t break in DC’s favor, I feel like I’ve learned about analyzing the upper levels with complex setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 SREFS, FWiW, continuing to cut back to almost nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: SREFS, FWiW, continuing to cut back to almost nothing at this point. I’m good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: SREFS, FWiW, continuing to cut back to almost nothing at this point. What is this map then? I grabbed it from the SE forum, claiming it's the SREFS. Edit: NVM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Before the 00z suite starts, please bear with me as I try to understand what's going on here. Based on HM's tweets and posts on this board, my understanding is that to get precip west of the bay we need some sort of onshore flow to establish at the upper levels. Looking through maps, it looks like the clearest illustration of this might be at 700 mb. Below are the 12z and 18z GFS runs at near the height of the storm at 700 mb. The first thing I notice is the great white area over MD and VA. My understanding is that the drop in winds speeds in that area is due to the interaction between the system to our SE and the one to the NW. The one to the NW interferes with the ability of the coastal system to set up an onshore flow. The relevant change that occured at 18z appears to be that the 700 mb winds over the Delmarva peninsula went from more southerly (blowing to the north) to more easterly. That allows for more moisture to be transported across the bay. The reasons for this, if I understand correctly, are a combination of improved circulation around the coastal low, which is closer to the coast at 18z, as well as the system to our NW backing off a little. This idea is supported by looking at a similar map for the 12z GGEM, which showed a relatively strong easterly wind at 700 mb, and more precipitation inland. Am I looking at the right things? I'm trying to learn here, so I'd appreciate any insights you all can give me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: SREFS, FWiW, continuing to cut back to almost nothing at this point. 21z SREFs mean is 1" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: 21z SREFs mean is 1" at DCA Of snow? Or precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 21z SREFs mean is 1" at DCA Then what is the precip map I found on the SE forum? I am confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Of snow? Or precip snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: What is this map then? I grabbed it from the SE forum, claiming it's the SREFS. It says maximum precip at the bottom. So best case scenario out of all the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Then what is the precip map I found on the SE forum? I am confused. Maximum QPF - best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, yoda said: snow Confused I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, olafminesaw said: It says maximum precip at the bottom. So best case scenario out of all the members. Oh, I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricanegiants said: Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out? If it shows a better outcome. We are in full weenie mode. Truth is I still think GFS verifies better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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