JAN 4th Coastal

[Cobalt]

This just in: NWS moves accumulating snow line a full 5 miles

Back to you Suzy with sports

 

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree. This is an unusually difficult storm for NWP to get right. Rapid development followed by rapid forward speed is wreaking havoc on the math/physics. One of the big reasons I'm sticking with general rules with what usually or rarely works here. 

This is where the probability forecasts will be helpful for NWS to forecast snow totals.  In addition to the rapid deepening and speed, the timing/dig/etc of the NS playing a role in determining the western extent of precip as well as how far N the coastal can get before heading ENE is just another complication to this whole setup.  Fascinating to follow honestly.  

[MountainGeek]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We should probably start a separate thread just for the HRRR tomorrow afternoon.  Lol

 

Reply to this and celebrate your 20K post milestone! 

[grhqofb5]

23 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

And you guys continue to act horrible to me. I was giving an opinion.

And don't learn too much grammar or you'll take the fun out of what you just wrote.

I too believe you are a substantial addition to this board, and more specifically to this thread.  But it's like the old proverb: "Be careful who you step on while climbing the ladder of success; you’re liable to meet them on the way down."  Also the following rings true:  "It don’t take a genius to spot a goat in a flock of sheep." And finally, this one:  "A prophet is never accepted in his own country. "

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This just in: NWS moves accumulating snow line a full 5 miles

Back to you Suzy with sports

 

Seems to me putting the zero on there just adds insult to injury

[stormy]

26 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Jesus Christ what has happened to this place? 5 post or ban that dude and let’s get on with logical, fact-based discussion.

Dont let the kids run around the restaurant, they’re ruining other folks’ meals.

These kids are having fun! I remember my actions 40 years ago. I only wish that I could turn back the clock.

The 18z GFS is trending toward D.C. and I hope you folks get dumped on!! Me, out to the west, its the same old story. Maybe next week, I get a mix on Monday or at least rain. Any moisture is much better than the Sahara. Go D.C.!!!!!!,  1-3 inches is manna....

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, I'll get up in front of the class. One thing I don't do well with is buying into uber longshots. That part actually kinda sucks becuase it takes some of the fun out of the chase that I used to jump in with both feet 10 years ago. The good thing is that what I think and what weather does aren't connected. I'm just a weenie who's spent way too much time looking at weather models and reading weather stuff over way too many years. 

On topic though....gfs played the shell game and picked the winner at the perfect time. It's plausible but is it the most likely outcome? Precip needs to literally bully its way here. Delmarva is close enough no matter how you slice it. We need to win an atmospheric brawl to along the corridor. Euro has a dozen solutions so 1 in 4 chance. Gfs had a 1 in 3 chance and picked the right shell. I know which way I would wager but I'd gladly lose money becuase playing the odds is always better in the long run with getting stuff right. And if I lose I win so there's that. 

I hate the way too many see each storm as some win lose shoot for the stars competition. The point should be to make the best forecast at the time given the evidence available at the time. If something is a long shot you should predict it's a miss. It's about the best forecast not trying to be the first to nail the next big one. Then when evidence changes the forecast should change. Not stay the same out of some stubborn desire not to give up on your call.   Most of the clowns on social media have bastardized good forecasting which is equal parts sound meteorology, evidence, and probability math. Instead they are chasing the next big hit and saying "I told you so first". 

What we're doing in here is good fun. There is nothing wrong with it. I'm playing along. We're not being serious. But way too many are and it's sad. 

[Jandurin]

While we're giving random opinions I'll say the irritation that others are getting snow when you aren't posts and the very concept itself is odd to me.

It's not like you did anything to earn the snow or that someone else stole it.

So weird to see the "at least Boston isn't getting the snow" posts. Maybe it's some intra forum warfare I'm unaware of

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's like 85% complete. The precip shield needs to spread out a bit more. Low moves a bit closer the coast and more phased with incoming trough. easy aesthetic symmetric. 0z to come west again. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is where the probability forecasts will be helpful for NWS to forecast snow totals.  In addition to the rapid deepening and speed, the timing/dig/etc of the NS playing a role in determining the western extent of precip as well as how far N the coastal can get before heading ENE is just another complication to this whole setup.  Fascinating to follow honestly.  

Agreed.  I know that when many experts are still trying to better predict, this has to be the ultimate kick in the short hairs, but to us enthusiasts, it surely is fascinating, and i think in part, because we know less, it almost helps as its easier to weenie/wish cast, than to see something defy algorithms and physics as stated above.  

[Thanatos_I_Am]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

While we're giving random opinions I'll say the irritation that others are getting snow when you aren't posts and the very concept itself is odd to me.

It's not like you did anything to earn the snow or that someone else stole it.

So weird to see the "at least Boston isn't getting the snow" posts. Maybe it's some intra forum warfare I'm unaware of

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

For me, I’m just naturally competitive. I hate losing if others are winning. Pretty simple.

[mattie g]

This storm sucks.

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

For me, I’m just naturally competitive. I hate losing if others are winning. Pretty simple.

you must be young, cause once upon a time, I was a fierce competitor.

Now Im old enough to just know what battles to pick....the ones i can win.  this sport isnt one of em.  I just enjoy playing along.

[MountainGeek]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

While we're giving random opinions I'll say the irritation that others are getting snow when you aren't posts and the very concept itself is odd to me.

It's not like you did anything to earn the snow or that someone else stole it.

So weird to see the "at least Boston isn't getting the snow" posts. Maybe it's some intra forum warfare I'm unaware of

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

Basic psychology at work -- the same reason a high percentage of people would rather EVERYONE lose the lottery than they win $10K while their neighbor wins $100K. Logically it makes no sense, because the neighbor's status has nothing to do with your bottom line -- you are simply choosing to be $10K poorer out of spite. 

So that's why I always root for the max snow we can get in our area -- I'm not going to give up 2" and have nothing just so Boston can share in my misery.

The question in my mind right now is, with the continued uncertainty on this one, can we get enough of a dusting to make the winds and deep freeze afterwards a lot more fun?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just looked at the GFS.  What a big shift!  Gimme one more of those please.  Maybe we can back our way into a high end advisory event. 

[Bob Chill]

Gefs moved west but I wouldnt have expected not to. Gefs moves lock step in the medium range most of the time and short range is a bunch of op clones. 

[Cobalt]

Don't know if it matters at this point (someone asked about it a while ago so I'm posting), but the GEFS shifted West. 0.1" contour is very close to DC

Edit: Ninja'd!

 

 

[H2O]

The really interesting part of this storm for me will be the convection over the ocean and how that will affect moisture transport. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

 

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs moved west but I wouldnt have expected not to. Gefs moves lock step in the medium range most of the time and short range is a bunch of op clones. 

I never understand why this game is so predictable for so long. definitely high odds further west precip. This is based on observing 17 years of winter storms. 

[Bob Chill]

There's actually more spread in the members than I thought. A few whiffs along the corridor but most push at least a trace in. Half get .1 to i95. A couple outliers push .3 to dca. One gets .1 all the way to HGR. Lower resolution and shorter leads don't give much weight to the members but the outliers are notable for the short lead time. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's actually more spread in the members than I thought. A few whiffs along the corridor but most push at least a trace in. Half get .1 to i95. A couple outliers push .3 to dca. One gets .1 all the way to HGR. Lower resolution and shorter leads don't give much weight to the members but the outliers are notable for the short lead time. 

part of me wonders if not having a strong H up in the NE, that it would argue for a little less tightening of the Western gradient, and if we continue to see it tuck in a little more, that the western side, could expand some (like back to i 81 corridor).

i also realize that the speed of the system would also argue against that, but something to watch IMO.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

part of me wonders if not having a strong H up in the NE, that it would argue for a little less tightening of the Western gradient, and if we continue to see it tuck in a little more, that the western side, could expand some (like back to i 81 corridor).

 

Well, not having a high to the North has been the kiss of death for many events, especially when it moves out just as the storm arrives (such as presidents day 2016 storm). Not sure how much of an impact it'll make here.

[Hurricanegiants]

As we approach the models tonight, at this point does the NAM (I know I can’t believe I’m asking this) actually begin to be the one to focus on since we are 24 hours out or are we still all-innon the globals still?

[SnowGolfBro]

I think we are close to winter weather advisory territory.  If we do get .1-.2 qpf and it comes during the Thursday morning rush hour it could create some havoc.  Especially if there is little warning.  I suppose 0z will be a deciding factor for any advisories to be issued.

[Cobalt]

Gotta remember this. Sometimes is the kiss of death in our storms where we're on the edge.

 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I think we are close to winter weather advisory territory.  If we do get .1-.2 qpf and it comes during the Thursday morning rush hour it could create some havoc.  Especially if there is little warning.  I suppose 0z will be a deciding factor for any advisories to be issued.

With such a low confident storm and lack of moisture on the west they would hold off until at least the 12z run.  It is not like we are talking about 6 inches 

[nj2va]

Here’s the 18z GFS sounding when precip is overhead DC.  DP is 17 and temp is 22.  The column is saturated through 950.  Question for the experts here — with the DP at 17 but the column saturated down to 950, would this indicate snow reaching the ground?  I would think yes but wanted to throw it out here for discussion.  

[osfan24]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Well, not having a high to the North has been the kiss of death for many events, especially when it moves out just as the storm arrives (such as presidents day 2016 storm). Not sure how much of an impact it'll make here.

Yeah I thought not having a high to the north often kept the precip field more compact and a high to the north usually helped to expand the precip field? Maybe I'm wrong. Either way, this is a wild storm. It's going to really bomb and be super intense but kinda funny how, despite all that, it's not really going to be a prolific snowstorm at all. Eastern NC gets a great storm and maybe Boston and parts of northern NE. But even those snow totals won't be outrageous. Having some kind of block to the north really would have helped change the game and make this truly epic for many.

[SlamSlam]

How come everyone always says the "next" run of models will be the deciding factor, for the last 3 days? Sorry, new here.

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[Cobalt]

Just now, SlamSlam said:

How come everyone always says the "next" run of models will be the deciding factor, for the last 3 days? Sorry, new here.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
 

We've thought there would be consensus, but the setup is very complicated here. Many players on the field, and to even get 3", every player has to be on the right part of the field at the right time. Also, model consensus hasn't improved much over the past few days.