87storms Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 looking at the nam, i don't know that too many conclusions can be drawn. only concern is we're getting closer, not farther, from the event. onto the gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3knam at 500 looks like an overall better trough alignment to me . Lakes low is slightly further west this run allowing hieght rises to the east ne. Both nams shifted the polar low in Quebec west. WIll parobably only be a factor for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This storm is very trackable still imo. I don't think this story is finished yet. This storm is like an nuclear explosion on the 3k...those are hard to predict until they happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nams remind me of the euro with the shield to the west of the low. Not identical of course but they both have the same bulge to the west. It's doing the same thing, messy reorganization of the precip as the northern stream system temporarily interferes and kicks it east. Only it's doing it right at our latitude screwing our eastern zones instead of NYC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Bottom of the trough at 42 on the 0z 3km nam looks horrible compared to the same time on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, wkd said: Bottom of the trough at 42 on the 0z 3km nam looks horrible compared to the same time on the 18z. I actually thought the 18z 3k was slightly worse then 12z. 12z just didn't go out far enough but it might have nukes us had it. It's been a slight degradation both runs since. At 60 12z was slightly better then 54 on 18z. But I didn't want to ruin the party saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Rgem came West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Rgem came West Looks similar to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes it does Richmond better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks similar to me?0z 42 vs 18z 48. Loop looks like 3k nam from the nuke run earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard. It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard. It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida How did you hear this. Weather Bug shows 55 deg there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard. It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida Not according to the National Weather Service 55 and rain. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cocoa+Beach&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.3355&textField2=-80.6269&e=0#.Wkr92DdryUk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It was on Fb. May have been fake but did look at radar and saw returns nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well Looks like 10 mm through DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS hanging back the southern shortwave more. Typical GFS. Seeing as it's 66hrs out, I'm going to say it's still not hanging it back enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS just will not budge on this one...steady as a rock. A tick east if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS hanging back the southern shortwave more. Typical GFS. Seeing as it's 66hrs out, I'm going to say it's still not hanging it back enough. Gets zero precip into VA excluding far southeastern VA and flurries for the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well Looks like 12mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS is the model of consistency and looks to be on its way to a victory. Will continue to track but not what we needed to see tonight so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like 12mm That's remarkable. Gfs moves a little east and is on a mission. Lol. Cmc on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's remarkable. Gfs moves a little east and is on a mission. Lol. Cmc on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If this thing is coming west the GFS isn't going to catch on until 18z or 0z tomorrow. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone whod been through this drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That map looks similar to 12z. .3-4 contour running through the cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: If this thing is coming west the GFS isn't going to catch on until 18z or 0z tomorrow. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone whod been through this drill. I just compared the gfs at 60 to the euro at 72. Low strength and placement is very similar. Gfs is only a little east with low. I think the only thing the gfs is missing is the western bulge. Something going on there across guidance with the gfs being odd man out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sigh... 00z CMC went way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Cmc is east compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Sigh... 00z CMC went way east Solidifies the trend east for the night. Models are almost unanimous with an easterly shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Negnao said: Solidifies the trend east for the night. Models are almost unanimous with an easterly shift. And so far pretty similar in low placement as well. No double barrel lows or tucked in lows. Just way out in the Atlantic lows. If anything we are probably seeing a correction to more of a GFS solution like Bob Chill said would happen tonight... Still 24-48 hrs until game-time and we don't know exactly how the interaction at h5 will go tomorrow night and Wednesday. But I think it's safe to say that the westerly trends today have stopped dead in their tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.