Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: And you guys continue to act horrible to me. I was giving an opinion. And don't learn too much grammar or you'll take the fun out of what you just wrote. Your opinion is "More snow = realistic, less snow = false". If this is your first time living in the Mid Atlantic, you're in for a bad time if you want the model with the most snow to be right. Also, were you the guy who made this map for DT for the Boxing Day "Storm"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Hey, I'll gladly eat my words and I have no problem saying I blew it. I'm good like that. If there was ever a chance of a trough going neutral over FL panhandle, no blocking, no high to the north, and storm being born off the Florida coast giving us snow then this is definitely the best chance it will happen in my lifetime. Next time it shows up I'm 100% out though. You've been rock solid Bob. And the storm hasn't happened yet so nothing blown. If it snows no one will remember what you said. If it doesn't snow you're a legend..at least here. In life you are just Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 But anyways, GFS showing a heavy band of snow for the eastern NC. But that might be convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Your opinion is "More snow = realistic, less snow = false". If this is your first time living in the Mid Atlantic, you're in for a bad time if you want the model with the most snow to be right. Ok i no longer want the model with the most snow to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 How the Gfs got us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Jesus Christ what has happened to this place? 5 post or ban that dude and let’s get on with logical, fact-based discussion. Dont let the kids run around the restaurant, they’re ruining other folks’ meals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, yoda said: We take -- too bad this is not likely but we can pray for it Wait doesn’t the 18z gfs have a Southeast bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just realized.. I'm only 15, and i probably shouldn't belong on the forums, i take things too negatively. Time for me to stop. I'm gonna be logical this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: But anyways, GFS showing a heavy band of snow for the eastern NC. But that might be convective feedback issues. Those are almost always out over the gulfstream or on the warm side of the storm in the >10c 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: And you guys continue to act horrible to me. I was giving an opinion. And don't learn too much grammar or you'll take the fun out of what you just wrote. you might fit in better in the nyc forum tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Wait doesn’t the 18z gfs have a Southeast bias? The image is the 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Your opinion is "More snow = realistic, less snow = false". If this is your first time living in the Mid Atlantic, you're in for a bad time if you want the model with the most snow to be right. Also, were you the guy who made this map for DT for the Boxing Day "Storm"? Looks a bit familiar to this upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You've been rock solid Bob. And the storm hasn't happened yet so nothing blown. If it snows no one will remember what you said. If it doesn't snow you're a legend..at least here. In life you are just Bob. Nah, I'll get up in front of the class. One thing I don't do well with is buying into uber longshots. That part actually kinda sucks becuase it takes some of the fun out of the chase that I used to jump in with both feet 10 years ago. The good thing is that what I think and what weather does aren't connected. I'm just a weenie who's spent way too much time looking at weather models and reading weather stuff over way too many years. On topic though....gfs played the shell game and picked the winner at the perfect time. It's plausible but is it the most likely outcome? Precip needs to literally bully its way here. Delmarva is close enough no matter how you slice it. We need to win an atmospheric brawl to along the corridor. Euro has a dozen solutions so 1 in 4 chance. Gfs had a 1 in 3 chance and picked the right shell. I know which way I would wager but I'd gladly lose money becuase playing the odds is always better in the long run with getting stuff right. And if I lose I win so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That's my biggest takeaway today I think. Well, that and the interaction of the northern stream s/w expanding the western shield of the precip or not. Both are going to be hard to model and both have high risk. I'm fully expecting to wake up to frozen brown on Thursday. That's probably the right mindset atm. Aim low on the forecast and hedge a bit on the high end of the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GGEM just skunked us all, NJ, NYC, and most of west 1/2 of MASS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 18z GGEM just skunked us all, NJ, NYC, and most of west 1/2 of MASS. Pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Pic? http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 18z GGEM just skunked us all, NJ, NYC, and most of west 1/2 of MASS. It is pretty crazy how much things are bouncing around back and forth. I get it for us on the western edge but it seems like there’s a lot of uncertainty in areas more favorable for measurable snow being less than 72 hours out. I guess it shows how dynamic the overall setup is. Or how bad some of these models are..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Definitely, no slight to Mr Chill or the other experts here, I really enjoy the analysis and find the MA group second to none as far as the collective brainpower of all the A-listers and red-taggers. The element of unpredictability is what makes this fun! The idea is if we can hold them to their earlier assessment, that means we have no choice now but to get pummeled. You're on your own their bud. I hold them accountable for nothing, as i stated why I understood their viewpoint. Made sense at the time - but time we still had. The best are'nt 100% right, especially in this game. In defense of some, we learn far more right than wrong here. I'd not spike any footballs until your done shoveling. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: It is pretty crazy how much things are bouncing around back and forth. I get it for us on the western edge but it seems like there’s a lot of uncertainty in areas more favorable for measurable snow being less than 72 hours out. I guess it shows how dynamic the overall setup is. Or how bad some of these models are..lol Maybe a mix of both It is crazy how some setups are completely simple and can be sniffed out very accurately almost 5 days in advance (i.e Blizzard of 2016), but setups like these bounce around a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It is pretty crazy how much things are bouncing around back and forth. I get it for us on the western edge but it seems like there’s a lot of uncertainty in areas more favorable for measurable snow being less than 72 hours out. I guess it shows how dynamic the overall setup is. Or how bad some of these models are..lol I agree. This is an unusually difficult storm for NWP to get right. Rapid development followed by rapid forward speed is wreaking havoc on the math/physics. One of the big reasons I'm sticking with general rules with what usually or rarely works here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: You're on your own their bud. I hold them accountable for nothing, as i stated why I understood their viewpoint. Made sense at the time - but time we still had. The best are'nt 100% right, especially in this game. In defense of some, we learn far more right than wrong here. I'd not spike any footballs until your done shoveling. Good luck Spike footballs? No way -- we're still partly cloudy out here, even with the most weenie runs. Our only hope for a couple of inches is if Bob and others around DC get hammered. So yeah, I'm hoping those earlier calls were RIGHT -- just that of the two options, it's going to be the one that appeared much less likely at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like the GGEM is playing musical chairs with the Low Pressure. This part of the equation seems to be the biggest factor. If the main low pressure ends up being 300 miles off the coast then there isn't going to be much snow anywhere west of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I agree. This is an unusually difficult storm for NWP to get right. Rapid development followed by rapid forward speed is wreaking havoc on the math/physics. One of the big reasons I'm sticking with general rules with what usually or rarely works here. We'll be doing this routine right through Thursday's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 We should probably start a separate thread just for the HRRR tomorrow afternoon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z GGEM just skunked us all, NJ, NYC, and most of west 1/2 of MASS. Well lets hope at this closer timeframe the new HRDPS it more accurate. The 18z moved the low west and stronger but the precipitation shield west slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is my favorite storm everSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here's DT's first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Another thing worth pointing out is the strength and size of storms don't correlate. The coast can easily get nothing with a 950mb storm within just 150 miles of shore and conversely a weak 995mb storm can have a massive shield. A lot of other factors go into how far precip can spread away from a low pressure center. Most people know this but I've seen some posts about how it seems unlikely that a really strong storm can hold precip tight to the center. It happens all the time all around the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We'll be doing this routine right through Thursday's 0z run. have to say that the goalposts have not narrowed much in the last few runs. Pretty crazy. Gem goes east, GFS goes west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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