Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"? I'm working on my fingerpaint snow map now. I'll post it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's mostly noise, though the NS s/w is a little further west/slower on this run. Diabatic PV production from all of that convection is continuing to cause havoc. This just isn't going to be modeled as well as we'd all like because of it. Better to take a blend and hedge slightly NW towards the coastal front for now. I still think that's going to be an important player. That nasty advected dry boundary layer wedge on the NW side is going to be a player as well. Could be a brutal cutoff on the west side of wherever that band decides to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: My takeaway from this whole deal is that just like we see nice storms go POOF in seemingly the nicest of setups, they also can trend back from less than ideal setups into something. It really is the fascination I think many of us have with Meteorology, and the challenges associated (of course IMBY snow totals trump everything). I think it safe to say that so far the 2017-18 shows us all to well to not discount the unexpected. Not good for the hairline I know. never ever never give up on a storm when its along the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm working on my fingerpaint snow map now. I'll post it later. If you can make it as confusing as one of DT's maps I can t wait to see it. Make sure it is labeled "first call" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I thought DT said this storm couldnt happen..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: but....but......didn't Mr Chill and others declare a couple days back that this would be all-or-nothing affair? Fringe was not an option! So if it's not going to be nothing, then we have to get hammered. And yeah, the latest RGEM and GFS are really gonna STING if verified, we on the western side have been getting the short end of the stick on every event so far this season. with respect to the many talents that are on here, there was enough writing on the wall to see why it was written off by some A Teamers. While I'm not at that level, I've always rooted for the underdog, and have seen "surprises" enough to know that while odds are sometimes slim, sometimes they are able to be overcome, like we see with this storm. Trough axis/500's and pattern recognition largely argued against what is happening. No matter the result, that is/was undeniable, and my weenie eyes saw what they did, but knew that at 4-5 days out, time was on our side. carry on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 30 36 and 42 hour marks on the 18Z run seem to indicate an issue with where the Low will really be. Seems like an interesting model variance. The next run may cause a further issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: I thought DT said this storm couldnt happen..... It hasn’t happened yet. There’s enough uncertainty with the western edge of precip that its anyone’s guess right now whether places like DC and Baltimore see nothing, flurries, or the elusive 1”. Certainly makes this storm fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in? ops and mezzos starting tonight should start to carry the weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"? Offense, but you’re terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, csnavywx said: It's mostly noise, though the NS s/w is a little further west/slower on this run. Diabatic PV production from all of that convection is continuing to cause havoc. This just isn't going to be modeled as well as we'd all like because of it. Better to take a blend and hedge slightly NW towards the coastal front for now. I still think that's going to be an important player. That nasty advected dry boundary layer wedge on the NW side is going to be a player as well. Could be a brutal cutoff on the west side of wherever that band decides to set up. That's my biggest takeaway today I think. Well, that and the interaction of the northern stream s/w expanding the western shield of the precip or not. Both are going to be hard to model and both have high risk. I'm fully expecting to wake up to frozen brown on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: It hasn’t happened yet. There’s enough uncertainty with the western edge of precip that its anyone’s guess right now whether places like DC and Baltimore see nothing, flurries, or the elusive 1”. Certainly makes this storm fun to track. I agree. Even if DC doesn't get much, this storm will probably be historic for some. Pretty sure I saw a statistic that said that SE South Carolina counties haven't have a winter storm warning in nearly 1700 days or something like that, so this is pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in? As long as they show better chances of getting snow to the cities they are still very valuable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: with respect to the many talents that are on here, there was enough writing on the wall to see why it was written off by some A Teamers. While I'm not at that level, I've always rooted for the underdog, and have seen "surprises" enough to know that while odds are sometimes slim, sometimes they are able to be overcome, like we see with this storm. Trough axis/500's and pattern recognition largely argued against what is happening. No matter the result, that is/was undeniably, and my weenie eyes saw what they did, but knew that at 4-5 days out, time was on our side. carry on... Definitely, no slight to Mr Chill or the other experts here, I really enjoy the analysis and find the MA group second to none as far as the collective brainpower of all the A-listers and red-taggers. The element of unpredictability is what makes this fun! The idea is if we can hold them to their earlier assessment, that means we have no choice now but to get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in? If they come in wetter like the EPS did I think it will add another level of intrigue. Whether we should care or not is tough to say. My two cents is the ensembles will be useful through 0z because of the complexity associated with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Gives me 3.00 inches, I'd sell my kid for 3", I forgot I don't have a kid. I'll give you one of mine to sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can you hear it? Chomp munch glomp glomp....that's the sound of eating words I sincerely hope I have to apologize to everyone for dismissing our miracle blizzard of 2018. Doubt it but I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, T. August said: Offense, but you’re terrible. Be professional on this forum. You're gonna lose respect fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can see what the gfs is doing. Hard time resolving convection. 3 low centers and it chose the weenie one to be primary. I'll tell you what bud, were that to be the case, then much more notable surprises could be had for many here. I'm still largely fringed, but I may see flakes and not cirrus. I hope it happens, but my gut says, we see a more consolidated look at 0Z and it ticks east. Just my hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Be professional on this forum. You're gonna lose respect fast. Dude I can’t even respond to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I keep harping on the coastal front off GA/SC/FL because that's where the best mass convergence to initiate convection is likely to initially be -- so if we're going to kick-start a low, it's probably going to be tied with that. There will certainly be convection further southeast, tied to the old 850 front, but imo, best spot for initiation is just off NE FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, T. August said: Dude I can’t even respond to this I know. We were talking ma secs earlier and he wants us to be professional? That ended when I got rid of storm mode and ruined the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Be professional on this forum. You're gonna lose respect fast. Nah, you can just donate some of your extra....oh wait, I was thinking of someone else. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"? You're a quality addition to the board. Not sure how we muddled through without you for so long. To think I had to survive all those years without constant updates on the probability of Delaware school closings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Be professional on this forum. You're gonna lose respect fast. You've been a member of the forum for 3 Euro runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'll tell you what bud, were that to be the case, then much more notable surprises could be had for many here. I'm still largely fringed, but I may see flakes and not cirrus. I hope it happens, but my gut says, we see a more consolidated look at 0Z and it ticks east. Just my hunch. Hey, I'll gladly eat my words and I have no problem saying I blew it. I'm good like that. If there was ever a chance of a trough going neutral over FL panhandle, no blocking, no high to the north, and storm being born off the Florida coast giving us snow then this is definitely the best chance it will happen in my lifetime. Next time it shows up I'm 100% out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 And you guys continue to act horrible to me. I was giving an opinion. And don't learn too much grammar or you'll take the fun out of what you just wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, feloniousq said: You've been a member of the forum for 3 Euro runs... Thats like 649ish HRRRR runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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