WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Also i don't have a bias. I'm making a forecast based on a blend of models, and it looks pretty close to what the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Thanks Wes, great post. We normally want that northern jet streak over SNE? Long time lurker, very rare poster b/c I know nothing. Question- PHL and NYC are north of the Jet streak as well- why are they still I the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WeathermanB said: Not joining the RGEM's boat. Are you gonna join the downcasting community? I wouldn't.. next... Here's your "consistent NAM" Certainly not consistent for anywhere West of the ol' Jackpot zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It will be enough to close down school for a day. Maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: It will be enough to close down school for a day. Maybe two. So, how much do you think it'll snow at DCA, Mr. Weatherman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: It will be enough to close down school for a day. Maybe two. I didn't do my homework in March 2001....top worst decisions I have ever made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, 93Blizzard said: I didn't do my homework in March 2001....top worst decisions I have ever made. Ditto... Stayed up all night for NOTHING..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3K does get us under returns, but probably not for long, but a victory of sorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What do you think about this map? Made by someone else, looks overexaggerated to me. weather weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 3K does get us under returns, but probably not for long, but a victory of sorts About the same as the 12z run. I guess it is kind of a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 3K does get us under returns, but probably not for long, but a victory of sorts Yeah gets returns just west of DC but only for an hour, two at tops. A good hit for the eastern shore/beaches but a huge hit for LI/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: What do you think about this map? Made by someone else, looks overexaggerated to me. weather weenie. Yeah that guys a weenie, trust me I would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: What do you think about this map? Made by someone else, looks overexaggerated to me. weather weenie. Move it about 150 miles to the East, and it makes sense. Maybe even 200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Move it about 150 miles to the East, and it makes sense. Maybe even 200 Still a chance of the map being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Bold, but ultimately correct decision on that map to leave DC out entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 3K is giving us the finger in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 From a meteorological standpoint this is going to be an epic event even if it doesn’t give us a flake. If it lives to the full potential it’ll probably make Kocin’s next book. I’m at least excited for that part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: Still a chance of the map being right. We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC. Just now, feloniousq said: Bold, but ultimately correct decision on that map to leave DC out entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: From a meteorological standpoint this is going to be an epic event even if it doesn’t give us a flake. If it lives to the full potential it’ll probably make Kocin’s next book. I’m at least excited for that part Probably will become a NESIS event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC. I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered. I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think its best if we avoid the bulls eye until 12z tomorrow. We don't want there to be any time left to shift back. Maybe happy hour GFS will start a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 What do you think about this map? Made by someone else, looks overexaggerated to me. weather weenie.Still a chance that an asteroid wipes us out in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Mdecoy said: I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered. I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow. Like someone said, without Blizzards that we get every 7 years, we'd probably average 8-10" of snow. 2013/14 through 2015/16 were complete flukes, with the exception of maybe 2014/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 QPF forecast looks to be a guess of 4-6 inches of snow for central and south delaware? Could be whiteout conditions thursday morning before it probably tapers off around 1 pm. Has us in the 0.25 shading, i'm guessing a high ratio of 20:1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: QPF forecast looks to be a guess of 4-6 inches of snow for central and south delaware? Could be whiteout conditions thursday morning before it probably tapers off around 1 pm. Has us in the 0.25 shading, i'm guessing a high ratio of 20:1 or so. Awesome, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Still a chance that an asteroid wipes us out in the next 48 hours. Guaranteed to tick west and still miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: Guaranteed to tick west and still miss us. Rain event anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Awesome, I guess. that is pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 According to their NAM forecast, this. Weenies i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WeathermanB said: According to their NAM forecast, this. Weenies i guess. I never said anything about Boston lol. It's about DC and the sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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