WVclimo Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Tallahassee, FL is under a WSW for up to an inch of snow. They have recorded measureable snow 7 times since 1895, most recently in 1989, but they have never had a snowfall in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Tallahassee, FL is under a WSW for up to an inch of snow. They have recorded measureable snow 7 times since 1895, most recently in 1989, but they have never had a snowfall in January. apparently it broke their page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 When was the last time the Bay of Delaware had Freezing Spray Advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Subtropics said: It doesn't snow here anymore. Back in the 2000s when I was in elementary school I remember we got no school all the time for 4'' snows... those days are done. When was the last time DCA recorded 3-5''? It's boom or (usually) bust. Not trying to be snarky-- were you in the area in the winters of 13/14, 14/15, 15/16? DCA had 5 such storms in those three winters, or 7 if you round up >2.5" to 3". And if you expand the upper range a bit to 7", it adds two more to the tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Not trying to be snarky-- were you in the area in the winters of 13/14, 14/15, 15/16? DCA had 5 such storms in those three winters, or 7 if you round up >2.5" to 3". And if you expand the upper range a bit to 7", it adds two more to the tally. Yeah, we had our really snowy series of years. We're just making up for it next year. Maybe this lack of a -NAO will make up in the next Winter and we'll get a nor'easter on every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Not trying to be snarky-- were you in the area in the winters of 13/14, 14/15, 15/16? DCA had 5 such storms in those three winters, or 7 if you round up >2.5" to 3". And if you expand the upper range a bit to 7", it adds two more to the tally. Maybe my memory is failing me. Just seems like it's all or nothing lately... but sounds like I'm wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Maybe my memory is failing me. Just seems like it's all or nothing lately... but sounds like I'm wrong here. It's probably cause the last big storm we really had was the Presidents day storm in 2016. March 13-14 was basically a non-event for DC, but there was a LOT of ice, so I guess that counts. 14/15 was a great stretch, but that seems so long ago. We're overdue for a Moderate El Nino, hopefully with a -NAO/-AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Maybe my memory is failing me. Just seems like it's all or nothing lately... but sounds like I'm wrong here. I think it seems that way because so far, this year nothing. Last year, nothing. Year prior, we had the blizzard, and that was it. So its been basically 3 years outside of the Blizzard. It is pretty ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 how much do we want the energy to dig? i feel like part of the problem is that the trough is too far south and east, or are you referring to the potential kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Maybe my memory is failing me. Just seems like it's all or nothing lately... but sounds like I'm wrong here. Pretty much has been lately. If this winter is a dud, can you imagine if the blizzard of 16 hadn't happened? Three straight dreadful winters. Of course, we had two really good ones before that, and a few years before that was the once in a billion years winter so....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM i think is doing a excellent job on the precip totals for mid-atlantic, although i'm forecasting a wider precip field and heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I like 3-5 inch events but that's just not what I'm interested in TRACKING, unless it's in a generally snowy winter. We don't do 6-10 that well around here which is why I'm still enamored of 13-14 and even 14-15. In the last several years, the most exhilarating tracking was January '16, even though it was obvious from a week out, followed by 13-14 for sheer number of events to track. <4 inch events just aren't my thing anymore, and brutal cold and dry is definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This is banter so feel free to delete but I can't help it. Absolutely brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 the coast will probably continue to like the nam after this run. doesn't seem like much of a difference so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: NAM i think is doing a excellent job on the precip totals for mid-atlantic, although i'm forecasting a wider precip field and heavier snow. You really joining the RGEM's boat? I'll remember this post. You can forecast all you want, but if you have a bias of wanting more snow, it's not that reliable. I would know too. I'm in the same boat. I'm a high school student who wants snow. That is a major red flag imo. NAM looks East too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It's probably cause the last big storm we really had was the Presidents day storm in 2016. March 13-14 was basically a non-event for DC, but there was a LOT of ice, so I guess that counts. 14/15 was a great stretch, but that seems so long ago. We're overdue for a Moderate El Nino, hopefully with a -NAO/-AO Was it presidents day? I feel like it was January, on a Saturday. Thats another thing... I always like that giddy feeling that school gets closed or work get sent home. Nothing better than a buzz around the office before a snow event. You don't have that on the weekend snows. (just a personal preference). Either way, that was two years ago, its been a while... My youngest kid is a year and a half and hasn't been out to play in snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can we go back to Storm Mode. In all threads? No. I'm bored to tears right now at work and this is the only thing I can keep up on my PC that's both entertaining and related enough to what I do that I won't get dirty looks for slouching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Thought I'd post a really pretty map forecast map showing to jet streaks, one over Florida and one south and east of us. The left front of a cyclonically curing jet streak is favorable for upper level divergence and lifting. Now look at the northern of the two wind maxes. It's anticyclonically curving and the upper level divergence with a anticyclinically jet is located along the right rear quadrant of the jet streak. Essentially we have two jet streaks in an ideal location to help maximize upper level divergence and lifting. Throw in a warm ocean and you've got an ideal environment for a rapidly deepening low. Unfortunately, the northern of the two jet streaks is farther south than you usually see for us getting a big storm. Latent heat from all the convection offshore will try to push it north but its location may help explain why the models are having trouble getting the low to come north as quick as we'd like. It also may help explain why the precipitation has a hard time getting to us. We're on the wrong side of that jet streak. Now that I've posted the image, the NAM probably has come in wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM is real close https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018010218&fh=39&xpos=0&ypos=14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, evaporativecooler said: No. I'm bored to tears right now at work and this is the only thing I can keep up on my PC that's both entertaining and related enough to what I do that I won't get dirty looks for slouching. Yeah, this banter threat is actually entertaining. If we aren't gonna get snow, at least we can have some fun, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The NAM has trended towards the GFS and Euro. Has no snow for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ughhhh, just when the precip is ready to back west, it kicks east on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: ughhhh, just when the precip is ready to back east, it kicks east on us Read my post on the jet streak, I think they, especially the northern one, are part of the reason why the precip has a hard time getting to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joc111 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 32 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Can we go back to Storm Mode. In all threads? For real. The five largest cities in Virginia are going to be significantly-to-severely impacted and those of us who live in those areas are trying to follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 00z could shift west. I've seen it happen many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thought I'd post a really pretty map forecast map showing to jet streaks, one over Florida and one south and east of us. The left front of a cyclonically curing jet streak is favorable for upper level divergence and lifting. Now look at the northern of the two wind maxes. It's anticyclonically curving and the upper level divergence with a anticyclinically jet is located along the right rear quadrant of the jet streak. Essentially we have two jet streaks in an ideal location to help maximize upper level divergence and lifting. Throw in a warm ocean and you've got an ideal environment for a rapidly deepening low. Unfortunately, the northern of the two jet streaks is farther south than you usually see for us getting a big storm. Latent heat from all the convection offshore will try to push it north but its location may help explain why the models are having trouble getting the low to come north as quick as we'd like. It also may help explain why the precipitation has a hard time getting to us. We're on the wrong side of that jet streak. Now that I've posted the image, the NAM probably has come in wet. Thanks Wes, great post. We normally want that northern jet streak over SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looping NAM @ 500 btwn 39-42h looks like the storm hits the DC anti-snow forcefield and bounces off to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I threw that out as RR bait. He’s slacking. Give me a break. I’m out of the country with a touch of the flu and i haven’t slept in two days. I am embarrassed i missed it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: You really joining the RGEM's boat? I'll remember this post. You can forecast all you want, but if you have a bias of wanting more snow, it's not that reliable. I would know too. I'm in the same boat. I'm a high school student who wants snow. That is a major red flag imo. NAM looks East too Not joining the RGEM's boat. Are you gonna join the downcasting community? I wouldn't.. next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, peribonca said: Looping NAM @ 500 btwn 39-42h looks like the storm hits the DC anti-snow forcefield and bounces off to the east 3K "may" be kinder to us.....gunna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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