JAN 4th Coastal

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Interesting enough the Euro ens mean has gotten wetter. 

With the GEFS, I don’t usually trust the precip maps because they tend to smear out sharp gradients at their low resolution. EPS runs at the resolution of the GFS op, so I would think that’s less of an issue.

Either way, getting precip back to us is hard. I think there’s two ways it happens. First, a strong consolidated low like the euro shows moves another 50-100mi west. That seems like a tall order, but that’s what happened between 0z and 12z so maybe not impossible. Second, the coastal front is more intense, like what the Canadian suite and NAMs have, which throws precip back onshore more. Have no idea which is more plausible or how likely this could happen. 

[Subtropics]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With the GEFS, I don’t usually trust the precip maps because they tend to smear out sharp gradients at their low resolution. EPS runs at the resolution of the GFS op, so I would think that’s less of an issue.

Either way, getting precip back to us is hard. I think there’s two ways it happens. First, a strong consolidated low like the euro shows moves another 50-100mi west. That seems like a tall order, but that’s what happened between 0z and 12z so maybe not impossible. Second, the coastal front is more intense, like what the Canadian suite and NAMs have, which throws precip back onshore more. Have no idea which is more plausible or how likely this could happen. 

Both of these things will happen. If I'm NWS WSWatches go up for the DC - Balt Corridor tonight. 

[BristowWx]

32 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

NWS for our area says 30% chance of snow wed. night. Thursday partly sunny with brisk winds from the nw.

sounds good.  954 low on the Euro to our east.  you gotta laugh at that one.  We'd be under blizzard watches.  That lime green color that is rarely seen on NWS.   

[usedtobe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

With the GEFS, I don’t usually trust the precip maps because they tend to smear out sharp gradients at their low resolution. EPS runs at the resolution of the GFS op, so I would think that’s less of an issue.

Either way, getting precip back to us is hard. I think there’s two ways it happens. First, a strong consolidated low like the euro shows moves another 50-100mi west. That seems like a tall order, but that’s what happened between 0z and 12z so maybe not impossible. Second, the coastal front is more intense, like what the Canadian suite and NAMs have, which throws precip back onshore more. Have no idea which is more plausible or how likely this could happen. 

I don't think either is particular plausible.  I think hte 500h pattern suggests any frontogenesis and banding will be well east of us which might actaully hurt our chances.  As you say, that big a shift in the low this late in the game is a tall order.  I noted that the SREF mean decreased from .25 to .10 over DC.  Given the fact that it always has a few really amped members, to me that's a big step backwards suggesting DC's chance of getting 0.10" liquid is pretty low.  Still if someone wants to hang their head on hope. they can go with the trend from the Euro EPS. 

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

why are you apologizing? waterboy removed storm mode. two banter threads are much better than one. 

said no mod.....

EVER

this has been a bit different but not horrible IMO.  Little fun while talking bout stuff we all seem to enjoy (even though most are fringed....or less, has been ok for me.

Nut

[H2O]

1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

I don't think either is particular plausible.  I think hte 500h pattern suggests any frontogenesis and banding will be well east of us which might actaully hurt our chances.  As you say, that big a shift in the low this late in the game is a tall order.  I noted that the SREF mean decreased from .25 to .10 over DC.  Given the fact that it always has a few really amped members, to me that's a big step backwards suggesting DC's chance of getting 0.10" liquid is pretty low.  Still if someone wants to hang their head on hope. they can go with the trend from the Euro EPS. 

we have gone from needing the mostest westest model to the mostest wettest.  We will get NAM'd.

[Bob Chill]

EPS has about a dozen solutions that push the .1 line to or west of 95. Less than half show a total shutout along the corridor. 

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Both of these things will happen. If I'm NWS WSWatches go up for the DC - Balt Corridor tonight. 

ALL ABOARD 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With the GEFS, I don’t usually trust the precip maps because they tend to smear out sharp gradients at their low resolution. EPS runs at the resolution of the GFS op, so I would think that’s less of an issue.

Either way, getting precip back to us is hard. I think there’s two ways it happens. First, a strong consolidated low like the euro shows moves another 50-100mi west. That seems like a tall order, but that’s what happened between 0z and 12z so maybe not impossible. Second, the coastal front is more intense, like what the Canadian suite and NAMs have, which throws precip back onshore more. Have no idea which is more plausible or how likely this could happen. 

Looking through the members on the EPS, it looks like there is more spread than one would expect, considering we are about 40 hours from onset. Normally by this point the ens members are pretty much lockstep with the op. Focusing on eastern areas, there are a handful with virtually nothing, and another handful with what would easily be warning criteria snow. The rest are somewhere in between, with generally lighter amounts.

[usedtobe]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has about a dozen solutions that push the .1 line to or west of 95. Less than half show a total shutout along the corridor. 

That's an improvement from 00Z last night when only 13 of them got precip to DC. 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Both of these things will happen. If I'm NWS WSWatches go up for the DC - Balt Corridor tonight. 

Interesting and quite bullish.  Wes seems to think neither is plausible.  Making it a tough call for me on what to think about this event and who might have a handle on it.  Need to give both ideas careful consideration. 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS has about a dozen solutions that push the .1 line to or west of 95. Less than half show a total shutout along the corridor. 

so by my math that makes for 100% of 3/4ths of all the members showing 10" or thereabouts.  WOOT

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

If I knew nothing about this event and you just showed me the 42 hour Euro surface map, a 950 something low sitting a couple hundred miles off Hatteras, I'd imagine we were gonna snow.  

[Cobalt]

Just now, H2O said:

so by my math that makes for 100% of 3/4ths of all the members showing 10" or thereabouts.  WOOT

Use 40:1 ratios, and we have a 75% chance of 40" of snow

ALL ABOARD

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

That's an improvement from 00Z last night when only 13 of them got precip to DC. 

Yea, I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising with the low closer. I know why folks like HM are stating that it isn't all about low location but also what happens with the northern piece but having the low closer likely increases the odds of getting precip IF the northern stream cooperates instead of inhibits how far west precip can push. I'm still huggin the RGEM until it goes away in a couple hours. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

If I knew nothing about this event and you just showed me the 42 hour Euro surface map, a 950 something low sitting a couple hundred miles off Hatteras, I'd imagine we were gonna snow.  

Really wishing the low was forming off of Georgia right now. As we speak it's probably on a vacation in the Bahamas drinking out of a coconut

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising with the low closer. I know why folks like HM are stating that it isn't all about low location but also what happens with the northern piece but having the low closer likely increases the odds of getting precip IF the northern stream cooperates instead of inhibits how far west precip can push. I'm still huggin the RGEM until it goes away in a couple hours. 

I say hug it too. Why not? It beats looking at the GFS from 12Z and seeing just how close we really are. It's brutal.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Use 40:1 ratios, and we have a 75% chance of 40" of snow

ALL ABOARD

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Use 40:1 ratios, and we have a 75% chance of 40" of snow

ALL ABOARD

dude. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

dude. 

 

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I just realized it's hard to detect sarcasm on the internet, like just now

[StantonParkHoya]

Can we go back to Storm Mode. In all threads?

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising with the low closer. I know why folks like HM are stating that it isn't all about low location but also what happens with the northern piece but having the low closer likely increases the odds of getting precip IF the northern stream cooperates instead of inhibits how far west precip can push. I'm still huggin the RGEM until it goes away in a couple hours. 

yea the problem with the euro shift west is that its still really east of where it needs to be for us(hugging Obx). We are in the one of worst snow droughts that i can remember....hoping something breaks soon for us

[mappy]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Can we go back to Storm Mode. In all threads?

sorry. was told it was unnecessary. 

 

 

... my soreness is showing. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

500mb certainly looks improved in the euro.  Closes off at 500 and has more energy diving deeper on the backside. 

Yaaasssss...

[Subtropics]

Just now, Ji said:

yea the problem with the euro shift west is that its still really east of where it needs to be for us(hugging Obx). We are in the one of worst snow droughts that i can remember....hoping something breaks soon for us

It doesn't snow here anymore. Back in the 2000s when I was in elementary school I remember we got no school all the time for 4'' snows... those days are done. When was the last time DCA recorded 3-5''? 

 

It's boom or (usually) bust. 

 

[Bob Chill]

Scanning through the members....the vast majority that push precip west to or west of 95 are the furthest west solutions. A couple of giant broad shields in there but it's pretty easy to see what to root for. Sub 970 as it passes and as far west as possible. 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Scanning through the members....the vast majority that push precip west to or west of 95 are the furthest west solutions. A couple of giant broad shields in there but it's pretty easy to see what to root for. Sub 970 as it passes and as far west as possible. 

Simple, we need to move the land farther East. Doesn't seem too hard

Also, NWS found a middle ground it seems

 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Yaaasssss...

I threw that out as RR bait. He’s slacking.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

NAM's digging more. Models trend NW likely. I think 00z will jump a bit. 

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Scanning through the members....the vast majority that push precip west to or west of 95 are the furthest west solutions. A couple of giant broad shields in there but it's pretty easy to see what to root for. Sub 970 as it passes and as far west as possible. 

Yaaasssss...