mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Only 48 hours and we can close this damn threat down. thank god, an end is in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Mdecoy said: The whole "Its snowing in city XYZ and it wasn't modeled by the snowiest of models means we are in luck" Never works. I am sure there will numerous radar hallucinations and verga excitements; then letdowns, as well. "Why isn't it reaching the ground!?!?!?!" Watch your language!!! Children visit this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mappy said: thank god, an end is in sight. For real. Can't wait to track the next fake 240 hr snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Like I said, GFS is a better model than is often given credit for being. Everyone seems to remember the Euro victories but never its loses. The GFS is about to be schooled from central and eastern parts of my area up into New England. It may have accidentally backed it’s way into the correct idea with its east bias for your neck of the woods but it’s going to fail miserably at the very least from central Long Island up into Connecticut and New England which is a large sector of the eastern seaboard impacted by this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, hazwoper said: Watch your language!!! Children visit this board. you're talking to him? what about the guy talking about ma secs that's nsfw much less not safe for children Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think it will over perform...just not here. it could be an 899 low and I don't think it would matter. learned quite a bit from this experience. We haven't learned anything until the storm is over. I'll be satisfied with gray slate Skies a Brisk Northeast wind and a few flurries here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'd posit that many here haven't learned a damn thing before this storm, during this storm and after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: We haven't learned anything until the storm is over. I'll be satisfied with gray slate Skies a Brisk Northeast wind and a few flurries here and there. sorry I meant so far I learned a lot. I read HM when he talked about the west side of the storm so I had realistic expectations combined with weenie optimism. but point taken, it's not over yet. I think we can manage Brisk Northeast wind for sure. not sure about the slate gray skies or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here is a bold prediction...This isn’t happening! It can tick and bump west every run for a whole year into 2019 and it still won’t be our storm. There is nothing in place to cut off a 500 low and produce the type of energy needed to generate accumulating snows in our area. Perhaps A bit more favorable into southern MD and especially Eastern shore. RGEM, CMC, JMA, NAV, SREF are all unreliable guidance. Everyone here knows that. Further east and dry solutions win on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Need to decide today Millville or Oakland. Does lower DE have a shot at more than a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: sorry I meant so far I learned a lot. I read HM when he talked about the west side of the storm so I had realistic expectations combined with weenie optimism. but point taken, it's not over yet. I think we can manage Brisk Northeast wind for sure. not sure about the slate gray skies or flurries. NWS for our area says 30% chance of snow wed. night. Thursday partly sunny with brisk winds from the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Need to decide today Millville or Oakland. Does lower DE have a shot at more than a foot? I think more than an inch is a better question. Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm going to storm mode the panic room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I know most have moved on but I personally can't wait to nowcast this monster. We probably won't see a winter storm of this strength south of our lat for another 25 years..who knows . And what a big jump west by the Euro. Rarely see big shifts in track this close in with the Euro . That tells me there's sorting out still to come. 50+ mb drop in 24 hours. That's pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think more than an inch is a better question. Oakland. Yikes, seriously? I thought the beaches were locked in already but even that is in flux? Screw that I'll go ski in -20 windchills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Or the rain that's locked in for next Monday.. Sorry, reaper instinct Sad that Sunday morning we could be near 0, but rain 24 hours later. Only us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 50+ mb drop in 24 hours. That's pretty good. that IS crazy. So close to something memorable for many of us. Congrats easterners.... I'll be looking at cirrus and waving. Such a "waste" of a bomb. Cant imagine if we would have had a little better trough orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, PhineasC said: Yikes, seriously? I thought the beaches were locked in already but even that is in flux? Screw that I'll go ski in -20 windchills. 12z Euro/GFS...maybe 1-3" Or you can always go with the GEM/RGEM/NAMs combo, but even there a foot is asking a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Of course...this is the direct inverse of The Panic Room. Hope, love, and wishful thinking were the foundation of these threads. Honestly, we needed something like this. Failing never felt so good for interior weenies (and we are ALL weenies), and the coast could produce in this pattern of cold and dry. It was fun. The radar hallucinations will be fun, and if a miracle does happen... Sorry junior staff. why are you apologizing? waterboy removed storm mode. two banter threads are much better than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z Euro/GFS...maybe 1-3" Or you can always go with the GEM/RGEM/NAMs combo, but even there a foot is asking a lot. LOL GFS and Euro together is as much of a lock as I can expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: why are you apologizing? waterboy removed storm mode. two banter threads are much better than one. LOL you are sore over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yikes, seriously? I thought the beaches were locked in already but even that is in flux? Screw that I'll go ski in -20 windchills. Definitely Oakland. Cold AF but pure winter there right now. Should get some good upslope as the winds crank out of the NW. Lake was frozen over too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I leave for 1 hour, and now there's 2 camps, the trustworthy ops (imo), and then the Canadian and the short range models, which are probably the worst camp to be in This is gonna be fun. Y'all can panic all you want, but that won't push this storm West. Bad track to begin with, not forming off of the coast of Georgia. I'm just here for the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: So the low takes a better track and we get less precip. lol. Oh the fun we have. I'm busy today and having been able to follow every post so forgive me if this was said but kudos to HM for pointing out that the low track is not the major factor for snowfall. Barring a drastic shift (possible) in slp track any snow we do or don't get will have to do with the interaction between the offshore low and the northern stream system and trough. The models are all over on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Interesting enough the Euro ens mean has gotten wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL you are sore over this. so sore. can't move, so sore. its KILLING ME HOW SORE I AM OVER THIS THREAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, HM thinks our side of the low will be snowier than what the globals show. 3”+ back to Philly he thinks. Extrapolate that westward at your own risk. I extrapolate it to 12” IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Models do not handle Arctic air masses well. They tend to Overemphasize the suppressive aspect of them. No bombs this Nina season anyway but a solid 2-4" for D.C. and points east is worth hanging around for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FWIW, HM thinks our side of the low will be snowier than what the globals show. 3”+ back to Philly he thinks. Extrapolate that westward at your own risk. I extrapolate it to 12” IMBY. I think 3 inches for Philly under the best of circumstances, translates into party cloudy for DC/ Baltimore, if I understand the gradient correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Interesting enough the Euro ens mean has gotten wetter. you tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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