frd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The euro just made the GFS look brilliant for not wavering day after day after day. GFS could end up being a big winner on this one. I wonder if DT will admit that....nah... GFS is the new king , all hail the GFS ( disclaimer - previous statement subject to change at any time ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ? its def west, guys. precip is ZERO tho. It's only west if precip went west too....so it's not westSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 500mb certainly looks improved in the euro. Closes off at 500 and has more energy diving deeper on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The euro just made the GFS look brilliant for not wavering day after day after day. GFS could end up being a big winner on this one. I wonder if DT will admit that....nah... Like I said, GFS is a better model than is often given credit for being. Everyone seems to remember the Euro victories but never its loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Don't sweat it Mappy. Huge shift west while running up to OBX and then it takes a hard turn right. I do wonder though if I can convince my wife of a road trip up to Cape Cod. Looks like the odds are good they get hammered. I'm not sweating anything, it went west Just now, Ji said: It's only west if precip went west too....so it's not west Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk okay, weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 All hail the GFS!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Like I said, GFS is a better model than is often given credit for being. Everyone seems to remember the Euro victories but never its loses. Don't disagree at all. GFS can struggle with coastals sometimes so when it was alone it was hard to bite. Now the gfs/ukie/euro look similar. If the current gfs/euro verifies then it's major props to the GFS and I won't forget it. It's always hard to bite when one of the major globals doesn't agree. Happens often. Eventually, they all end up looking the same and that's when you can feel confident. I don't like what I see but I'm becoming confident that the major details are resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Anybody got a total precip map for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro quite a lot west with the surface low. I'm going with the meso models for the precip. shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: Anybody got a total precip map for the Euro? Check weather.us. It's not pretty for anyone in our area, even the far eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 JMA anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 who had "disregard the Euro because no way it can be dry with a west shift!!" bingo card? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got a total precip map for the Euro? Cape Cod looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't disagree at all. GFS can struggle with coastals sometimes so when it was alone it was hard to bite. Now the gfs/ukie/euro look similar. If the current gfs/euro verifies then it's major props to the GFS and I won't forget it. It's always hard to bite when one of the major globals doesn't agree. Happens often. Eventually, they all end up looking the same and that's when you can feel confident. I don't like what I see but I'm becoming confident that the major details are resolved. So that's it Bob. you think the forecast is set in stone? No changes in store for the Baltimore or DC area. We trust the GFS and the Euro 36 to 48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 More western track, but tighter gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, cae said: More western track, but tighter gradient. not event worth a trip to Cambridge.....sorry mama Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got a total precip map for the Euro? ZERO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The 500's are an improvement. The trailing NS shortwave is digging deeper and we are getting a better response from the trough picking up the low. The more dig we see from that trailing energy the farther north that low probably goes north before it makes that turn to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: More western track, but tighter gradient. I’d just encourage everyone to read HM’s twitter feed for a good explanation on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 This has to be a first where run after run people shout "its west, its west" Only to find out all these so called "west" movements amount to the same result: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, frd said: So that's it Bob. you think the forecast is set in stone? No changes in store for the Baltimore or DC area. We trust the GFS and the Euro 36 to 48 hours out? No, I don't think it's set in stone. Proximity to the low can't rule out last minute changes. However, the 3 major globals agree for the first time. I would say the likelyhood of what they show today has gone up considerably though. Don't get me wrong, I want the RGEM (or CMC) to be right too but right now it sure doesn't look like they will be. When the gfs/euro/ukie agree at 48 hour leads it's usually a good sign that things are mostly resolved. I don't think anyone will deny that over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’d just encourage everyone to read HM’s twitter feed for a good explanation on this. for those who don't know it https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’d just encourage everyone to read HM’s twitter feed for a good explanation on this. https://twitter.com/hm?lang=en ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 @H2O storm mode back on? From one of the mets in the SE forum: "So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @H2O storm mode back on? From one of the mets in the SE forum: "So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting." I don't see anything on the radar to support this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Everyone should remember the rule of thumb for snow to get into the DC area: see if it is snowing in Odessa. White in TX=MA SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like a flizzard cloud just NE of Midland. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/odessa-tx/79761/weather-radar/331122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @H2O storm mode back on? From one of the mets in the SE forum: "So heres sign #1 that this is going to overperform.. Odessa & Midland, TX are seeing snow right now, and its been snowing for the last 2-3 hours. Per Midland NWS twitter some areas have a dusting. No models showed this, not even the 12z NAM 3km or the most recent HRRR run. They showed a blip of snow possible in Central TX, but nothing in far West TX. Thought that was interesting." I think it will over perform...just not here. it could be an 899 low and I don't think it would matter. learned quite a bit from this experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The whole "Its snowing in city XYZ and it wasn't modeled by the snowiest of models means we are in luck" Never works. I am sure there will numerous radar hallucinations and verga excitements; then letdowns, as well. "Why isn't it reaching the ground!?!?!?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Only 48 hours and we can close this damn threat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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