usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Every once in awhile I hear Jan 2000 bantered around so I thought I'd post the 500h analyses for the period where RDU and then DCA got heavy snow. Unfortunately, the site I used did not have the map for the 12 hours prior to the RDU hit but there was already an upper low sitting over South Carolina. That closed low lifted north in response to the very storm and sharp 500h diving southward. Look at how much more southerly the winds are out ahead of the trough then we have now. There is too much strong westerly flow at 500 early in the game to allow such a sharp northward movement. We don't close off a low until the system is off the coast. We need a 500h like 2000 to really get hammered. We don't have one and I don't see how we get one. Could DCA get an inch, sure but I'd be stunned if the city got much more. Of course, I've been wrong before. Anyway, enjoy the 500h maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, das said: I've heard multiple numerical weather prediction specialists opine that Jan 2000 will never happen again due to the advancements in their craft. Every time I hear it, i just shake my head. I am NOT suggesting that necessarily this storm is the one, merely making an observation. It probably won’t. Most busts these days occur due to missed mesoscale features and usually occur over relatively small areas. So you may have a bust for say 15% of a region in a major storm while 85% of the area the forecast was relatively good. We saw that a few weeks ago where NE PA and parts of southern NY and NW NJ were surprised due to the jet dynamics producing way more snow than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The HRDPS has 2-3" for DC while still snowing a bit on the back edge. Will be a good test of the model, to see if it's not just another dumb cousin of the Canadian model family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 yes. my new favorite model the HRDERPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It probably won’t. Most busts these days occur due to missed mesoscale features and usually occur over relatively small areas. So you may have a bust for say 15% of a region in a major storm while 85% of the area the forecast was relatively good. We saw that a few weeks ago where NE PA and parts of southern NY and NW NJ were surprised due to the jet dynamics producing way more snow than expected This explains why, at least in North Carolina, the forecast and modeling was so off even within 24 hours of the 2000 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: yes. my new favorite model the HRDERPS The Canadians like their snow and cold, yunno? Apparently the Canadian likes the cold a bit too much The HRDPS probably suffers from some of the same biases as the Canadian too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: yes. my new favorite model the HRDERPS I believe that is the GEM-LAM which ran covering DC up into New England on the meteocentre site. It was generally very good but more so inside 24-30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 its HRDERPS until it proves itself worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 So as Wes very nicely showed us, this storm is NOTHING like Jan 200 so lets keep comparing this one to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Sharper trough at 24 hours, should be west , will it be enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 And I still prefer HODORPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Sharper trough at 24 hours, should be west , will it be enough though. Yes. Because enough people have asked it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: its HRDERPS until it proves itself worthy Applying license plate reading rules, this refers to snow "HaRDER PleaSe" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: yes. my new favorite model the HRDERPS Where is Blue Thunder? Or is it Deep Thunder... there are too many models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, H2O said: And I still prefer HODORPS stay in your lane. pick another model to rename. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, H2O said: So as Wes very nicely showed us, this storm is NOTHING like Jan 200 so lets keep comparing this one to it. I realize the setup is different. I was more referring to the possibility of a model jump inside of 24 hours. Mostly being a weenie. The models are far better than in 2000 but this is a complex setup and it could easily jog 50+ miles east or west of current guidance in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro swings and misses, in the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Euro coming west. 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Euro swings and misses, in the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro is definitely west and stronger but still probably not enough to be a significant impact here. But it's a bump west, and we still have a couple more runs to see more bumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Euro swings and misses, in the GFS camp Stronger and more than a little jump west with the low south of us...but the dynamics aren't there to get the western push of the shield. It's like a good and bad run at the same time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 euro is a monster, not sure what the precip shield looks like or if it went west or not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro coming west. Went east last night. Back to square 1Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: you sure it's not a lake cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ? its def west, guys. precip is ZERO tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The euro just made the GFS look brilliant for not wavering day after day after day. GFS could end up being a big winner on this one. I wonder if DT will admit that....nah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Applying license plate reading rules, this refers to snow "HaRDER PleaSe" I thought it was an insult to the personnel department. "Hey you HR Derps!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The euro just made the GFS look brilliant for not wavering day after day after day. GFS could end up being a big winner on this one. I wonder if DT will admit that....nah... GFS and EURO are now in good agreement with pretty much everything as far as we're concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mappy said: ? its def west, guys. precip is ZERO tho. Don't sweat it Mappy. Huge shift west while running up to OBX and then it takes a hard turn right. I do wonder though if I can convince my wife of a road trip up to Cape Cod. Looks like the odds are good they get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Deeper, tighter low is not what we want- even though the track is better.. less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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