Kmlwx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Snow totals on Rgem are on the light side. Looks like it'd give MBY an inch or so. I'd take that in a heartbeat considering I'm expecting 3 snow flakes (if that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 did the low jump way west on the gfs at hour 30? Pretty sure that's the double barrel feature. Not sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Technically you can say the GFS shifted west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS not gonna get it done for most folks but in my opinion the best run of it so far......maybe im being a weenie but GFS is known for having a hard time with these type storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Technically you can say the GFS shifted west. lol stubborn....and it could easily be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Shifted probably 50 miles west of 6z and deeper. Still no cigar though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I tried to see why but the rgem h5 graphics suck and only ones I can find are 36 and 48 hours. But it's obvious the rgem is having a different interaction between the northern stream and the storm. Try pivotalweather. Here's the RGEM H5 loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: stubborn....and it could easily be right Got precip west of the bay. Looks like a lower qpf version of the euro. I'm telling you, the gfs is going to look like the smartest model when this is all said and done even though it was too far east for like 50 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z cements the eastern shore and south jersey...probably see some watches fly later today down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, cae said: Try pivotalweather. Here's RGEM H5 loop. Great loop. It's easy to see why the RGEM pushes precip so far west. Good moisture transport with the vigorous shortwave. All we can do is pray it's right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gfs finally trending higher here on the shore last 4 runs it's definitely wanting to phase more. Based off the trend map 18z or 00z should have the .5+ by 13. Soundings look great. There appears to be good snow growth and should be decent ratos. Solid 8-12 likely here in the delmarva shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Got precip west of the bay. Looks like a lower qpf version of the euro. I'm telling you, the gfs is going to look like the smartest model when this is all said and done even though it was too far east for like 50 runs. since there are no fish weenies, it won't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I just looked up the GFS in the handbook and it clearly reads that the gfs is caving to the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS hates everyone on the east coast compared to all other models https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010212&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darksideblugrss Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z cements the eastern shore and south jersey...probably see some watches fly later today down there. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 312 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 MDZ021>025-VAZ077-078-085-021615- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.180103T2300Z-180104T2300Z/ Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex- Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, Princess Anne, Snow Hill, and Ocean City 312 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible. * WHERE...Lower Maryland eastern shore and portions of the northern neck of eastern Virginia. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. $$ For more information...see http://www.weather.gov/akq/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I just looked up the GFS in the handbook and it clearly reads that the gfs is caving to the RGEM. Mine has a footnote that in such circumstances, we must wait for the GEM to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 So flipping stubborn but making tiny shifts west nonetheless. We only need 75 miles more. 24 more hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z cements the eastern shore and south jersey...probably see some watches fly later today down there. Watches already in place where they need to be based on guidance. SE Jersey counties might be added. Mid/upper eastern shore might see advisories. 0z Euro was drier even for places right along the coast. GFS still has mby getting flurries lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Mine has a footnote that in such circumstances, we must wait for the GEM to confirm. GEM pushes the outer death band into Moco. Lock that S up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Look at the simulated IR satellite on this GFs run at 42 and 48hrs compared to previous runs. If you showed me that and nothing else I’d be borderline pants tenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Missing a sub 980 low in the dead of winter with this kind of antecedent cold sucks. This is the kind of cold that should give everyone some love. There's no other way to put it...we are not a snow town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Missing a sub 980 low in the dead of winter with this kind of antecedent cold sucks. This is the kind of cold that should give everyone some love. There's no other way to put it...we are not a snow town. Tell that to the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lol cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Tell that to the GEM anyone who rlies on any iteration of the Canadian is a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: anyone who rlies on any iteration of the Canadian is a fool. Euro is coming west. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Missing a sub 980 low in the dead of winter with this kind of antecedent cold sucks. This is the kind of cold that should give everyone some love. There's no other way to put it...we are not a snow town. for a dead guy you sure do complain a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro is coming west. Book it. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If nothing else, the RGEM loop sure is nice to look at. We all know the RGEM is wrong, but in our sick, twisted minds, it gives us hope and keeps us strung along. Same with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We all know the RGEM is wrong, but in our sick, twisted minds, it gives us hope and keeps us strung along. Same with the NAM Why do you say that like it’s a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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