WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ooo and soundings show lots of strong upward motion around that same time. DGZ isn’t huge, but it’s right in the max omega zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:11 PM, osfan24 said: This is exactly where I am. I keep waiting for the models to eliminate the east kick and suddenly the snow shifts way west but it just hasn't happened yet. Maybe it's coming but if we were playing musical chairs, the music is about to stop. Expand If you're looking for an elimination of the east kick and a shifting of the storm way west, then someone needs to come into your house and kick all the chairs over, because that's not happening. What you should be looking for is a tighter hugging of the coast and an expansion of the precip on the west side. It's still asking a lot, but at least it's within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 947 east of DE....geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:19 PM, WxUSAF said: Ooo and soundings show lots of strong upward motion around that same time. DGZ isn’t huge, but it’s right in the max omega zone. Expand Legit wrap around too. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:19 PM, mitchnick said: 3k home run here it seems Expand If the precip happens as the 3km is showing, then I'll probably kick a puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:22 PM, mattie g said: If the precip happens as the 3km is showing, then I'll probably kick a puppy. Expand That is a brutal, brutal cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Razor edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:19 PM, mattie g said: If you're looking for an elimination of the east kick and a shifting of the storm way west, then someone needs to come into your house and kick all the chairs over, because that's not happening. What you should be looking for is a tighter hugging of the coast and an expansion of the precip on the west side. It's still asking a lot, but at least it's within the realm of possibility. Expand in fairness a tug here and a tug there and it can make things go boom. :). 3k looks great and also shows better snows heading up into NE Pa which may be a sign of that northern tick in the qpf fields due to the strength of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I have mine pointed to the west- northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I found the 3k perfectly acceptable but the piece of NS energy that wraps in for the trailing band is pretty suspect imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:19 PM, mitchnick said: 3k home run here it seems Expand Damn for you and me it absolutely is. I’d do naked cartwheels when it’s below zero Saturday morning if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3k really pumps up the precip to the west once the storm bombs out. Unfortunately it is not in time for me. But DC sees some more snow from that wrap around band. And of course so does Westminster. Eastern winter this year. Horrifying for those of us to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:23 PM, pasnownut said: in fairness a tug here and a tug there and it can make things go boom. :). 3k looks great and also shows better snows heading up into NE Pa which may be a sign of that northern tick in the qpf fields due to the strength of the storm. Expand Can't get stronger than 947 east of DE. You know it will have an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:23 PM, MN Transplant said: That is a brutal, brutal cutoff. Expand You could look out your east windows and see the snow falling in your neighbor's backyard, and look out the west windows and see broken high cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I had to look at a map to be sure I was in the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:26 PM, mitchnick said: Can't get stronger than 947 east of DE. You know it will have an eye. Expand at least it wont be a brown one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:26 PM, mattie g said: You could look out your east windows and see the snow falling in your neighbor's backyard, and look out the west windows and see broken high cirrus. Expand If DCA gets several inches and I get flurries, I'm going to find that puppy you kicked and throw it in the Potomac. (figuratively, puppies are awesome) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:19 PM, WxUSAF said: Ooo and soundings show lots of strong upward motion around that same time. DGZ isn’t huge, but it’s right in the max omega zone. I was seeing that on Bufkit this morning for the 6z 3K run too. Started around 7-9z and carried into the morning. This might surprise along 95 me thinks. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Even a 10 mile shift to the west on the 3k would be money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5" in La Plata and zilch in Culpeper. Yeesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:03 PM, stormtracker said: That jump east tho...ugh. It's gonna be gut wrenching...we all just need to buck up. An inch is within the realm tho. Expand Yea there is going to be a time when everything is coming north right towards us on radar but then if guidance is right it hits a brick wall and turns ENE as it feels the influence of the northern stream. Our only hope is this bullies north until it's east of the Delmarva instead of turning at the outer banks. As it comes at us knowing it won't make it I'm gonna feel like a crash dummy watching the wall coming thinking "this is gonna hurt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 shoot me. go ahead...i dare ya. w/ all due respect, we are close enough for this to have SOME validity. Should make some of you smile. small but nice tick west that brings some that were out....in. 3k is best of the nest so....hug at will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Most epic cutoff ever. That won’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3K NAM gives Baltimore 7 inches (Kuchera) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:25 PM, Bob Chill said: I found the 3k perfectly acceptable but the piece of NS energy that wraps in for the trailing band is pretty suspect imho. Expand 06z GFS tried to hint at it on the back end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:32 PM, Interstate said: The 3K NAM gives Baltimore 7 inches (Kuchera) Expand Hug away. And if we keep getting a few more pushes north and west........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:31 PM, pasnownut said: shoot me. go ahead...i dare ya. w/ all due respect, we are close enough for this to have SOME validity. Should make some of you smile. small but nice tick west that brings some that were out....in. 3k is best of the nest so....hug at will. Expand Due North yikes...can a brother get a 15 mile shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:32 PM, PhineasC said: Most epic cutoff ever. That won’t verify. Expand yeah when i posted the map, i thought the same. sorta why i posted. weather snow maps arent created w/ straight edge/rulers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 2:32 PM, PhineasC said: Most epic cutoff ever. That won’t verify. Expand trust me I've experienced insane cutoffs like this and they do exist and can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Living on the edge is brutal and 95 probably marks the true edge and not what the 3k is showing. 12z need to break at least a little in favor for the west of 95 crew...I hate this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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