H2O Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Due to popular demand, storm mode is gone. You can weenie it up and post whatever. don't care. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z NAVGEM shifted the precip a little east but the low looks to be in about the same location and the 500 mb map looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 With the caveat that I'm utterly unqualified to discuss synoptic met as a climo guy, just flipping between the Canadian and GFS on tropical tidbits, it looks like a lot of the precip field variation is caused by differences in handling the spacing between vorticity from the shortwave and that from the surface low. The Canadian draws them closer and the consolidation looks like it happens closer to our area, causing convection and a wider precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 DT actually has a pretty good pod cast on the potential storm for anyone interested. https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Interesting where the HRDPS has the low by hour 48. Quite a bit further north then the 18Z GFS at the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 For people who care, 21z SREFs went east (QPF-wise). Mean QPF dropped to 0.33” at DCA but in reality its being skewed by four members. Take those out and the mean is 0.1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Picking up something that was brought up in a previous thread: Tropical Tidbits now shows the high-res RGEM (HRDPS), which apparently went operational on December 14th. In case you're wondering what that is, it's a version of the RGEM with 2.5 km resolution, as opposed to 10 km for the normal RGEM. A brief summary is provided in the official note announcing its release, but the below sections are probably most relevant. (The RDPS is the RGEM). THE HRDPS ALSO SHOWED AN OVERALL POSITIVE GAIN OVER THE RDPS WITH RESPECT TO UPPER AIR AND SURFACE OBECTIVE SCORES. THIS OPERATIONAL DECLARATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE WIDE SPREAD USE OF THIS SYSTEM BY REGIONAL FORECASTERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AS INDICATED BY A RECENT SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE ANALYSIS AND PROGNOSTIC SECTION (A AND P) OF THE CMC. PRODUCT AVAILABILITY THE HRDPS-4.4.0 OUTPUT WILL NOW BE AVAILABLE MUCH SOONER THAN BEFORE. WHEREAS THE AVAILABILITY OF OUTPUT FROM THE FOUR DAILY RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRDPS VARIED BY RUN, THE RAW OUTPUT WILL NOW BE AVAILABLE FROM THE OPERATIONAL HRDPS BY T+4:20 FOR ALL RUNS, WHICH IS ANYWHERE FROM 10 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS SOONER THAN BEFORE, DEPENDING ON THE RUN. A test version of the HRDPS has been available for a while, but we haven't used it much because it wasn't widely available and came out much later than the RGEM. It looks like it's coming out more quickly now that it's operational. I haven't noticed a major improvement in its performance over the RGEM for winter storms in our area, but it seems that it does tend to run a little drier, especially when the RGEM is too wet. That's consistent with its verificiation scores: we should expect it to be (on average) drier than the RGEM with less of a cold bias. In case you're wondering why only half the country is covered, it's more narrowly focused on Canada than the RGEM. This is the region it covers. It will be fun to see how well it does with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Lets see how things tick at 00z. Hopefully if they do go in the wrong direction its more than a tick and we can forget about this threat once and for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I don't know how many times in the past Andros Island has been mentioned in a snowstorm thread, but the NAM places the low just north of there at 18z. Melbourne Radar currently showing convection east of Fort Pierce FL, and other returns that look like flocks of birds scurrying around in the ever-shrinking warm sector. Meanwhile mid-20s (F) dewpoints over the central Gulf of Mexico in a broad northeast flow that has pushed the arctic front past Veracruz and part way across the Yucatan. This thing is going to go ballistic when those arctic winds make full contact with the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM is really delaying the phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trough looks more negative around hr 45 for the 12k NAM Edit: 12k NAM throws precip fairly far West, just East of DC. Not sure what to make of the 12k NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wow. Norfolk really gets clobbered on this NAM run. Might be time for a road trip. It looks like it gets precip to just east of 95 on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 lol nobody posting......i guess that says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Delayed phase allows lead sw to get out ahead just enough to tug trof east. Didnt see a closed 500mb low either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM looks worse to me, at least looking at 500 MB. Looks east and open. That may be all she wrote. I guess I'll check back tomorrow and see what happened overnight before tossing my towel on this one, but hopefully if we miss out, so does everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 At least we get strong winds and bitterly cold wind chills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: NAM looks worse to me, at least looking at 500 MB. Looks east and open. That may be all she wrote. I guess I'll check back tomorrow and see what happened overnight before tossing my towel on this one, but hopefully if we miss out, so does everyone else. Nope, Norfolk gets clobbered pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: NAM looks worse to me, at least looking at 500 MB. Looks east and open. That may be all she wrote. I guess I'll check back tomorrow and see what happened overnight before tossing my towel on this one, but hopefully if we miss out, so does everyone else. everytime we hit a crossroads and we need a positive trend...the opposite happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Nope, Norfolk gets clobbered pretty good. I meant the folks to our north. Norfolk can have their foot or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 LOL nam 3k has a 966 right off Hatteras but snowshield hits a brick wall over Bob Chills house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Quasievil said: Interesting where the HRDPS has the low by hour 48. Quite a bit further north then the 18Z GFS at the same timeframe. I think it's just happens to be the lowest pressure within the scope of the model, so it's just a placeholder until the low comes into view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Nope, Norfolk gets clobbered pretty good. And Boston. Yeah I just saw Boston does get crushed at the end of the run. Ugh. Not surprised about the NAM though, not that it's terrible, but when I saw the SREF's cut back drastically, I had a feeling the NAM would take a step back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: LOL nam 3k has a 966 right off Hatteras but snowshield hits a brick wall over Bob Chills house Nams remind me of the euro with the shield to the west of the low. Not identical of course but they both have the same bulge to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 we really needed another positive trend at 00z and it all went down the toiletYeah....and now watch the GFS come way West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3k NAM throws salt in the wounds ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3k NAM throws salt in the wounds ouch Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Glad at least the S & E part of our subforum get hit on the NAM. Snow at the beach is pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes it does That looks like some overcast, windy, and cold weather. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 the sad thing is there is nothing trackable on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah I just saw Boston does get crushed at the end of the run. Ugh. Not surprised about the NAM though, not that it's terrible, but when I saw the SREF's cut back drastically, I had a feeling the NAM would take a step back as well. Not really worth mentioning but the SREF's didn't really cut back that drastically. .5 contour still goes through the cities. Probably lost some of the 20" and 30" runs this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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