SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It’s a NW flow The continued surge of bitterly cold arctic air within a northwest flow will maintain the potential for lake snows southeast of the lakes Thursday night through Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: What I have a hard time is the direction of those bands for LES, most models would bring in a northerly or nnw component but that watch screams wnw...i don't see that direction. Looks like WNW for a while anyway, at least based on qpf placements on NAM etc.? If winds are as bad as forecast, with snow falling, snow measuring could become a guesstimate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is it me or is that precip shield in south north Carolina farther west than anything modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 But then again, I haven't even seen it yet as I've been driving home from downstate. But from what Max's describing it sounds like it's a lot further West then most other models and with it being so close in, within almost 24 hours of go time, it can be catching on to some simple nuances that the globals can be missing. So I guess we'll see. I for one hope it's right cuz I've been saying it for a week and a half now, 🤣!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: But then again, I haven't even seen it yet as I've been driving home from downstate. But from what Max's describing it sounds like it's a lot further West then most other models and with it being so close in, within almost 24 hours of go time, it can be catching on to some simple nuances that the globals can be missing. So I guess we'll see. I for one hope it's right cuz I've been saying it for a week and a half now, ! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk To be clear, 3km isn't really pulling the slp closer in, still around the BM...its just pushed the heavy snow axis further west than anytbing we've seen modeled to this point...kind of like super banding that starves areas to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is editing a problem on anyone else's tapatalk app, cause after I edit, for some reason doesn't save it, IDK!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To be clear, 3km isn't really pulling the slp closer in, still around the BM...its just pushed the heavy snow axis further west than anytbing we've seen modeled to this point...kind of like super banding that starves areas to its east. UnderstoodSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Understood Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk There is also indication that we might see a wee bit of synoptic snow out of this yet, back into CNY...probably from the incoming ULL energy as it's absorbed into the coastal system in process of creating a deformation zone. Hr 23-28 on 12z 3-km show this feature... I'll split a gut if 18Z comes in with even more west idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is it my eyes playing tricks on me or did the 12z Euro, just come in further West?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Is it my eyes playing tricks on me or did the 12z Euro, just come in further West? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It came in whatever the NE forum needs it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It came in whatever the NE forum needs it to be.I'm starting to think, would I rather live somewhere where we nickle and dime our way to average, or somewhere where we get a few snowcane's a year and get above normal snow every yr. I got to think about this one long and hard, unless I move 20 miles to the north, then I'm good, LOL Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks really good for Wolfie and you guys in CNY. I think enough moisture gets thrown back for some pretty good LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just an absolute beast of a storm on the latest NAM. Looks like less synoptic moisture for CNY as it’s tighter, more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Check out that band raking the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'm starting to think, would I rather live somewhere where we nickle and dime our way to average, or somewhere where we get a few snowcane's a year and get above normal snow every yr. I got to think about this one long and hard, unless I move 20 miles to the north, then I'm good, LOL Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Take the nickel and dime. When those guys have a swing and a miss it can be game over for their season. We keep hitting singles and doubles. Of course, Parish to Mexico is so nearby. Tempting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When I look at the Enhanced Water Vapor, I notice the GL SLP is moving to the ESE as opposed to the SE, and that doesn't bode well for us. If however, this thing happened to be diving right down through the upper midwest, it would in turn cause this to go negative much quicker than it is now. I think we may just have to settle for the crumbs while places to our East get a Snowcane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: When I look at the Enhanced Water Vapor, I notice the GL SLP is moving to the ESE as opposed to the SE, and that doesn't bode well for us. If however, this thing happened to be diving right down through the upper midwest, it would in turn cause this to go negative much quicker than it is now. I think we may just have to settle for the crumbs while places to our East get a Snowcane! Yeah the interaction between the incoming trough and downstream Block has been just a bit off to keep this a coast hugger. Frankly, NWP has been reasonably consistent with these features for days. I never really thought we were in play synoptically, our fun is afterwards. Though it is disappointing to see the slp modeled passing near the BM. I was hoping more for a 40/65 target. 18Z NAM and 3k look better for most of NE, Albany may still get in on Advisory snow though, close call there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think I’m coming down with the flu. Won’t be able to chase the next few days which is shameful. At least I’ll have something to watch as I lay here dying. Gahhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think I’m coming down with the flu. Won’t be able to chase the next few days which is shameful. At least I’ll have something to watch as I lay here dying. Gahhhhh Just went through that before Christmas...not fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Well I'm just glad it's coming close enough for us to have some fun afterwards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Has anyone ever seen a storm system, during its bombogenesis stage, get weaker? Well that's what the NAM is suggesting happens as it goes from a 956 up to a 961 then back down, way down, to a whopping 949, just to the SE of the BM? Man o man, If there was a HPS in the GL's, instead of a LPS and a slightly neg NAO, Fuggetaboutit! I seriously don't think the models have a handle on this thing yet because quite a few levels are not jiving with the current synopsis out of the SPC but I don't know what to make of it as it's probably just noise. I really don't know what models can tell us this close in, but I doubt if this thing decides to jog to the West, I doubt any models catch it, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, vortmax said: That map plus winds seems like winter storm watches for the entire south shore. Im not sold on it, but if they are forecasting that the warnings should at least match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, vortmax said: I call bull****! It went from 5-8" to 12-18", what happened to 8"-12", lol? Do they even justify this in their afternoon discussion? Perhaps their buying into what the 3K is selling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Man what I would give right now to see this SLP over SE GA as opposed to the SE of SC in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Man what I would give right now to see this SLP over SE GA as opposed to the SE of SC in the Atlantic. What a waste. Pressure falls are well east of earlier hopes. Its all on Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like its even having a hard time finding the center of the SLP as it has 2 or 3 centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like its even having a hard time finding the center of the SLP as it has 2 or 3 centers. Seen that depicted on various NWP last several runs, esp GFS last nite. Adds to the pucker factor for those looking to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Has anyone ever seen a storm system, during its bombogenesis stage, get weaker? Well that's what the NAM is suggesting happens as it goes from a 956 up to a 961 then back down, way down, to a whopping 949, just to the SE of the BM? Man o man, If there was a HPS in the GL's, instead of a LPS and a slightly neg NAO, Fuggetaboutit! If you look at the pressures outside the low pressure center on that middle panel you'll see the central pressure is actually 951. It's hard to read with all those isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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