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Upstate/Eastern New York


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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

What I have a hard time is the direction of those bands for LES, most models would bring in a northerly or nnw component but that watch screams wnw...i don't see that direction.

Looks like WNW for a while anyway, at least based on qpf placements on NAM etc.?  If winds are as bad as forecast, with snow falling, snow measuring could become a guesstimate...

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But then again, I haven't even seen it yet as I've been driving home from downstate. But from what Max's describing it sounds like it's a lot further West then most other models and with it being so close in, within almost 24 hours of go time, it can be catching on to some simple nuances that the globals can be missing. So I guess we'll see. I for one hope it's right cuz I've been saying it for a week and a half now, 🤣!

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5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

But then again, I haven't even seen it yet as I've been driving home from downstate. But from what Max's describing it sounds like it's a lot further West then most other models and with it being so close in, within almost 24 hours of go time, it can be catching on to some simple nuances that the globals can be missing. So I guess we'll see. I for one hope it's right cuz I've been saying it for a week and a half now, !

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To be clear, 3km isn't really pulling the slp closer in, still around the BM...its just pushed the heavy snow axis further west than anytbing we've seen modeled to this point...kind of like super banding that starves areas to its east.  

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15 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Understood

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There is also indication that we might see a wee bit of synoptic snow out of this yet, back into CNY...probably from the incoming ULL energy as it's absorbed into the coastal system in process of creating a deformation zone. Hr 23-28 on 12z 3-km show this feature...

I'll split a gut if 18Z comes in with even more west idea.

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It came in whatever the NE forum needs it to be.
I'm starting to think, would I rather live somewhere where we nickle and dime our way to average, or somewhere where we get a few snowcane's a year and get above normal snow every yr. I got to think about this one long and hard, unless I move 20 miles to the north, then I'm good, LOL

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27 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I'm starting to think, would I rather live somewhere where we nickle and dime our way to average, or somewhere where we get a few snowcane's a year and get above normal snow every yr. I got to think about this one long and hard, unless I move 20 miles to the north, then I'm good, LOL

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Take the nickel and dime. When those guys have a swing and a miss it can be game over for their season.  We keep hitting singles and doubles. Of course, Parish to Mexico is so nearby. Tempting...

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When I look at the Enhanced Water Vapor, I notice the GL SLP is moving to the ESE as opposed to the SE, and that doesn't bode well for us. If however, this thing happened to be diving right down through the upper midwest, it would in turn cause this to go negative much quicker than it is now.

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANI.gif.ffd31bce6a08789a043adb0e033d0eeb.gif

I think we may just have to settle for the crumbs while places to our East get a Snowcane!

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18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

When I look at the Enhanced Water Vapor, I notice the GL SLP is moving to the ESE as opposed to the SE, and that doesn't bode well for us. If however, this thing happened to be diving right down through the upper midwest, it would in turn cause this to go negative much quicker than it is now.

I think we may just have to settle for the crumbs while places to our East get a Snowcane!

Yeah the interaction between the incoming trough and downstream Block has been just a bit off to keep this a coast hugger. Frankly, NWP has been reasonably consistent with these features for days.  I never really thought we were in play synoptically, our fun is afterwards. Though it is disappointing to see the slp modeled passing near the BM. I was hoping more for a 40/65 target. ;)

18Z NAM and 3k look better for most of NE, Albany may still get in on Advisory snow though, close call there.

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Has anyone ever seen a storm system, during its bombogenesis stage, get weaker? Well that's what the NAM is suggesting happens as it goes from a 956 up to a 961 then back down, way down, to a whopping 949, just to the SE of the BM? Man o man, If there was a HPS in the GL's, instead of a LPS and a slightly neg NAO, Fuggetaboutit!

nam_pr3_slp_t850_ne_8.thumb.png.d250603578d02171c8e9580474b295a4.png

nam_pr3_slp_t850_ne_9.thumb.png.211459cd4ad1c9fe2b448aafaa6ecd29.png

5a4d4be1c75c9_nam_pr3_slp_t850_ne_10(1).thumb.png.99061c745332c90094bace1d528b3482.png

I seriously don't think the models have a handle on this thing yet because quite a few levels are not jiving with the current synopsis out of the SPC but I don't know what to make of it as it's probably just noise. I really don't know what models can tell us this close in, but I doubt if this thing decides to jog to the West, I doubt any models catch it, tbh.

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4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Looks like its even having a hard time finding the center of the SLP as it has 2 or 3 centers.

 

Seen that depicted on various NWP last several runs, esp GFS last nite. Adds to the pucker factor for those looking to jackpot.

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18 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Has anyone ever seen a storm system, during its bombogenesis stage, get weaker? Well that's what the NAM is suggesting happens as it goes from a 956 up to a 961 then back down, way down, to a whopping 949, just to the SE of the BM? Man o man, If there was a HPS in the GL's, instead of a LPS and a slightly neg NAO, Fuggetaboutit!

If you look at the pressures outside the low pressure center on that middle panel you'll see the central pressure is actually 951. It's hard to read with all those isobars. 

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