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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

3km nam gives monroe county 10 to 20 inches

We are right on the edge of a decent event here so its not impossible, but you do realize how many times the models have said said that the last 3 weeks and I'm yet to have an event over 7 inches this entire season.  Cut those in half, and then do it again.  3-5 if the stars align.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Not trying to be an ***hole, but if the meso-low didnt get pulled ashore on the 12/30 event it would have been a 1-3 inch storm areawide...and damn were you hyping the **** out of that one.  There needs to be some accountability otherwise you might as well just say we will get buried every weekend from now until April.  A busted clock is right twice a day......but that doesnt mean its accurate.  

We need to be realistic.  If deep synoptic moisture can work back just another 100 miles I am on board and excited.  If it can't, this just isnt going to pan out.  

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champy

champy

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Not trying to be an ***hole, but if the meso-low didnt get pulled ashore on the 12/30 event it would have been a 1-3 inch storm areawide...and damn were you hyping the **** out of that one.  There needs to be some accountability otherwise you might as well just say we will get buried every weekend from now until April.  A busted clock is right twice a day......but that doesnt mean its accurate.  

We need to be realistic.  If deep synoptic moisture can work back just another 100 miles I am on board and excited.  If it can't, this just isnt going to pan out.  

Indeed, and then part of this constant hyping leads to constant crying in here (it's worse that the NYC forum now) and everyone saying "I got jipped out of my snow! It's not fair". It's ****ing weather. Deal with it and enjoy the weather we get. 

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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted

Tim, the only place that might possibly occur (based on 3k) is in the most northeastern portion. By Ontario/ Webster. SW corner literally has nada. 

GFS has pushed moisture back quite a bit and I’d expect winds to be more NW. But we haven’t seen any indication of that- so for now, slash’s 3k in half. 1-4” even. SW-NE

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I have a hard to believing this bomb won't throw nice RH our way...especially if it hits 940mb!!!

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

It does seem hard to believe but most of the models maintain a very sharp Western edge, 12z GFS is a little more generous as it looks like some moisture begins to eek its way back West by Friday morning, but not the deep stuff.  Perhaps one of the issues with a very deep wrapped up storm is that the moisture remains very consolidated around the center.  

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It does seem hard to believe but most of the models maintain a very sharp Western edge, 12z GFS is a little more generous as it looks like some moisture begins to eek its way back West by Friday morning, but not the deep stuff.  Perhaps one of the issues with a very deep wrapped up storm is that the moisture remains very consolidated around the center.  

If only we had a -NAO for this...would be historic. I find it interesting this storm actually creates a temporary -NAO for a few days...

 

NAO.png

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Where I think we score is by Friday on the 12z GFS it appears winds are northerly and from the thruway north gets lake enhancement. I also do not believe this storm is done moving west either.

I'm thinking the same. The models are having a hard time with this one. I think when NorE's get below 960, along with our anomalous pattern, we push the threshold of model capabilities and move into unknown territory.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, vortmax said:

I'm thinking the same. The models are having a hard time with this one. I think when NorE's get below 960, along with our anomalous pattern, we push the threshold of model capabilities and move into unknown territory.

Time to start tracking this thing via the SPC mesoscale page and see if we can find it trending further west in real time.  

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Indeed, and then part of this constant hyping leads to constant crying in here (it's worse that the NYC forum now) and everyone saying "I got jipped out of my snow! It's not fair". It's ****ing weather. Deal with it and enjoy the weather we get. 
Thanks champy, now beet It, lol! And another thing, it can never be worse than the New York City Forum or the New England one!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It does seem hard to believe but most of the models maintain a very sharp Western edge, 12z GFS is a little more generous as it looks like some moisture begins to eek its way back West by Friday morning, but not the deep stuff.  Perhaps one of the issues with a very deep wrapped up storm is that the moisture remains very consolidated around the center.  

Anyone care to comment on 12z NAM-3km output?  Basically it shafts New England east of the Berks and pounds ENY and WMA, VT with intense banding.  Pretty good signature for lake snow/enhancement also.

Is this model off its rocker compared to the globals?  The slp track and h500 seem similar in placement and intensity.

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Anyone care to comment on 12z NAM-3km output?  Basically it shafts New England east of the Berks and pounds ENY and WMA, VT with intense banding.  Pretty good signature for lake snow/enhancement also.

Is this model off its rocker compared to the globals?  The slp track and h500 seem similar in placement and intensity.

I'll tell you who's commenting on it: eastern posters on the NE subforum, who are angry and dismissing it.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Anyone care to comment on 12z NAM-3km output?  Basically it shafts New England east of the Berks and pounds ENY and WMA, VT with intense banding.  Pretty good signature for lake snow/enhancement also.

Is this model off its rocker compared to the globals?  The slp track and h500 seem similar in placement and intensity.

A track paralleling the coast is a high risk forecast as even a 50 mile jog East or West can impacts tens of millions of people one way or another. .  Trending West certainly seems plausible.  It's exciting when we are only 24 hours out and things aren't written in stone.  

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

No meteorology behind this...but I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a surprise or 2 for someone south of L Ontario. It’s just such an anomalous event with an absurdly cold airmass diving in on the heels of a beastly nor’easter...wouldn’t surprise me if some cool stuff pops around here tomorrow and Friday. 

Simply put...agreed.

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vortmax

vortmax

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Watches issued (Oswego,Wayne, northern Cayuga ) 

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Periods of heavy
  lake effect snow and blowing snow possible. Travel may be very
  difficult at times. Wind chills could range from 10 below zero
  to 30 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are
  possible.

Couldn't ignore the meso models anymore. Sounds like BUF has bought into the NAM.

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Syrmax

Syrmax

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

A track paralleling the coast is a high risk forecast as even a 50 mile jog East or West can impacts tens of millions of people one way or another. .  Trending West certainly seems plausible.  It's exciting when we are only 24 hours out and things aren't written in stone.  

Seems like every storm has surprises...with this one (and most major systems) I'd think banding is what will cause the most tears to be flowing. Globals usually not great with banding signatures due to resolution.  3km may be overwrought but this is a 2 or 3 SD anomalous system.  I just am thankful we're not really in play here synoptically.  Its like watching the Rose Bowl...the thrill of victory and the Agony of defeat ;)

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

This event would be a slam dunk if we had more moisture because the rest of the ingredients are certainly there. 

Just so I don't come across as not excited about the potential, this was my post from 12/30/17 in the last thread.

"In regards to the day 5 coastal, That 0z GFS run has the coldest 850's over WNY that I have ever seen forecast.  -35c, fairly well aligned N or NNE cyclonic flow, with marginal moisture.   Could be a south shore special?!"

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CNY-LES FREAK

CNY-LES FREAK

Posted
Posted
Anyone care to comment on 12z NAM-3km output?  Basically it shafts New England east of the Berks and pounds ENY and WMA, VT with intense banding.  Pretty good signature for lake snow/enhancement also.
Is this model off its rocker compared to the globals?  The slp track and h500 seem similar in placement and intensity.
The funny thing is, the 3K helps my cause with this Coastal, but I don't believe it one bit!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

The funny thing is, the 3K helps my cause with this Coastal, but I don't believe it one bit!!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

What I have a hard time is the direction of those bands for LES, most models would bring in a northerly or nnw component but that watch screams wnw...i don't see that direction.

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