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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Even if they forecasted this there still would have been a 75 car pileup. A forecast is not going to change that. 

Just likeNov 2014.  Thruway authority will say if they had a heads up they would have shut it down.  I'm surprised it's still open at all at this point 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
408 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

NYZ006-030515-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
408 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very
  dangerous to impossible, including during the evening commute.
  Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Worst conditions across northern portions
  of the county, north of Pulaski.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the
  snow is likely. This will severely impact travel on Interstate
  81 between Watertown and Syracuse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow,
frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly
discouraged.
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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Even if they forecasted this there still would have been a 75 car pileup. A forecast is not going to change that. 

I don't agree. If there were a Blizzard warning issued this morning there would've been less people on the road and some proactive DOT/public/other actions taken to reduce the chances of this.

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42 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I don't agree. If there were a Blizzard warning issued this morning there would've been less people on the road and some proactive DOT/public/other actions taken to reduce the chances of this.

When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course.  Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it.  IMO, sometimes these things happen. 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course.  Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it.  IMO, sometimes these things happen. 

Armchair quarterbacking is too easy...meteorology is highly complex and hard to predict. Just seems with all this computational power we have, models would be better than they are (with more data points).

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27 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Buffalo should be issuing winter storm watches now for south shore. There will be near blizzard condition Thursday night and Friday. 

Agreed. In fact the EC storm on GFS 18z is it's furthest west track I've seen since the original hit last week. What it does show is moisture being retrograde west over the great Lakes especially Ontario. Areas to the south could have significant accumulations from the 90 north.

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Well that was quite the unexpected little blizzard today.  I'm guessing what happened was the SW flow ended up being better aligned than modeled, along with a lot more moisture pulled into the flow...I've seen this movie a few times before though.  We have a habit in the northtowns of getting our best events when absolutely nothing of significance is forecast.  Probably goes with the territory of living downwind of a giant inland sea in the area with the maximum amount of fetch available...all it takes is a little match to be struck in the midst of deep arctic conditions, and BOOM!  We get today...

Side note, I was watching the Spectrum News weather forecast at some point during the day yesterday.  Kind of half paying attention, but noticed the simulated radar for today CLEARLY showed a band moving up into Northern Erie County, and staying put for a good part of the day.  Of course, the on-air met was saying "any leftover lake effect Tue morning will quickly wind down, nothing more than some scattered flurries during the day..."  He could have made the best forecast ever if he was paying attention...

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I'll add one observation about the blizzard today.  Thing that impressed me the most was the wind.  It wasn't the strongest I've experienced with heavy snow conditions in my area, but man was it persistent.  And there was a very pronounced roar to it for several hours.  Absolutely looked and sounded like a blizzard.  Super cool.  

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36 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course.  Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it.  IMO, sometimes these things happen. 

Pretty much agree. Had a BW been issued the only thing that could have been done is shut down highways ahead of time. What else could be done? Throw down yet another Egyptian Pyramid's volume of salt?  For something as notoriously unpredictable (and frequent) as lake effect...You don't want to get into the game of shutting down major interstates based on forecasts.  

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Pops raised to likely 

 

Sunday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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13 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Was watching that channel 2 meteorologist and she minimized the band. She did say there would be hazardous conditions but was not concerned with snowfall, just the blowing snow.


.

That's because the majority of TV meteorologists are just model huggers nowadays. Kinda like Burgundy in Anchorman reading whatever is on the promptor if the Mets see what the models say they go no further than that and then that's what they go with. We could all do the same thing.

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That's because the majority of TV meteorologists are just model huggers nowadays. Kinda like Burgundy in Anchorman reading whatever is on the promptor if the Mets see what the models say they go no further than that and then that's what they go with. We could all do the same thing.

What else is there to go by though? Models, Ensembles, Analogs, general pattern recognition, and past experience as a Met in any given location. 

 

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2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I'll tell you what, SWVA has to literally be the unluckiest person in the world, lol, he leaves and a band fires up.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Haha!!  I was thinking the same thing.  I’m home and Redfield has a Blizzard Warning!!

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Just now, Buffalo Bumble said:

Don Paul would whip your a@#s for saying that, haha...I think (hope?) that mets dig way deeper into the toolbox than us hobbyists do.  

I'm not so sure. He posts tropical tidbits on his facebook page all the time. You can use drop sounds readings for temperature and wind profiles. But those are incorporated into models. BUFKIT is a great tool as well. But other than that what else is there? 

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