vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: And this is why these 'surprise' storms need better forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 scroll down in comments. The video is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Mass casualty accident in 90 East. The video out of there is unbelievable. Buf NWS is about to get destroyed by the media and justifiably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 They have been terrible this year. Did they go cheap and hire interns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Weather here is pretty bad as well severe blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Mass casualty accident in 90 East. The video out of there is unbelievable. Buf NWS is about to get destroyed by the media and justifaably so. Winter. Weather. Advisory. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Even if they forecasted this there still would have been a 75 car pileup. A forecast is not going to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Even if they forecasted this there still would have been a 75 car pileup. A forecast is not going to change that. Just likeNov 2014. Thruway authority will say if they had a heads up they would have shut it down. I'm surprised it's still open at all at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'll tell you what, SWVA has to literally be the unluckiest person in the world, lol, he leaves and a band fires up.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 408 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 NYZ006-030515- /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KBUF.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0600Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 408 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very dangerous to impossible, including during the evening commute. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected. * WHERE...Oswego county. Worst conditions across northern portions of the county, north of Pulaski. * WHEN...Until 1 AM Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. This will severely impact travel on Interstate 81 between Watertown and Syracuse. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Strong winds will cause significant blowing and drifting snow, frequently reducing visibilities to zero. Travel is strongly discouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Even if they forecasted this there still would have been a 75 car pileup. A forecast is not going to change that. I don't agree. If there were a Blizzard warning issued this morning there would've been less people on the road and some proactive DOT/public/other actions taken to reduce the chances of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Buffalo should be issuing winter storm watches now for south shore. There will be near blizzard condition Thursday night and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 42 minutes ago, vortmax said: I don't agree. If there were a Blizzard warning issued this morning there would've been less people on the road and some proactive DOT/public/other actions taken to reduce the chances of this. When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course. Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it. IMO, sometimes these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course. Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it. IMO, sometimes these things happen. Armchair quarterbacking is too easy...meteorology is highly complex and hard to predict. Just seems with all this computational power we have, models would be better than they are (with more data points). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 27 minutes ago, tim123 said: Buffalo should be issuing winter storm watches now for south shore. There will be near blizzard condition Thursday night and Friday. Agreed. In fact the EC storm on GFS 18z is it's furthest west track I've seen since the original hit last week. What it does show is moisture being retrograde west over the great Lakes especially Ontario. Areas to the south could have significant accumulations from the 90 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, vortmax said: 12z EC much further east with the Mon-Tues 'cutter'. South of the area now... Verbatim it’s still a little warmish but definitely colder then previous runs, big storm too, about 1” liquid with much more just to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well that was quite the unexpected little blizzard today. I'm guessing what happened was the SW flow ended up being better aligned than modeled, along with a lot more moisture pulled into the flow...I've seen this movie a few times before though. We have a habit in the northtowns of getting our best events when absolutely nothing of significance is forecast. Probably goes with the territory of living downwind of a giant inland sea in the area with the maximum amount of fetch available...all it takes is a little match to be struck in the midst of deep arctic conditions, and BOOM! We get today... Side note, I was watching the Spectrum News weather forecast at some point during the day yesterday. Kind of half paying attention, but noticed the simulated radar for today CLEARLY showed a band moving up into Northern Erie County, and staying put for a good part of the day. Of course, the on-air met was saying "any leftover lake effect Tue morning will quickly wind down, nothing more than some scattered flurries during the day..." He could have made the best forecast ever if he was paying attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'll add one observation about the blizzard today. Thing that impressed me the most was the wind. It wasn't the strongest I've experienced with heavy snow conditions in my area, but man was it persistent. And there was a very pronounced roar to it for several hours. Absolutely looked and sounded like a blizzard. Super cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: When its an interstate its unlikely that many people just passing through would significantly alter their course. Half the time people don't even know what the warning means either or how to properly interpret it. IMO, sometimes these things happen. Pretty much agree. Had a BW been issued the only thing that could have been done is shut down highways ahead of time. What else could be done? Throw down yet another Egyptian Pyramid's volume of salt? For something as notoriously unpredictable (and frequent) as lake effect...You don't want to get into the game of shutting down major interstates based on forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Pops raised to likely Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Was watching that channel 2 meteorologist and she minimized the band. She did say there would be hazardous conditions but was not concerned with snowfall, just the blowing snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 First stab from Binghamton for Thursday to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Was watching that channel 2 meteorologist and she minimized the band. She did say there would be hazardous conditions but was not concerned with snowfall, just the blowing snow. . That's because the majority of TV meteorologists are just model huggers nowadays. Kinda like Burgundy in Anchorman reading whatever is on the promptor if the Mets see what the models say they go no further than that and then that's what they go with. We could all do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That's because the majority of TV meteorologists are just model huggers nowadays. Kinda like Burgundy in Anchorman reading whatever is on the promptor if the Mets see what the models say they go no further than that and then that's what they go with. We could all do the same thing. What else is there to go by though? Models, Ensembles, Analogs, general pattern recognition, and past experience as a Met in any given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I'll tell you what, SWVA has to literally be the unluckiest person in the world, lol, he leaves and a band fires up. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Haha!! I was thinking the same thing. I’m home and Redfield has a Blizzard Warning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: What else is there to go by though? Models, Ensembles, Analogs, and general pattern recognition. Don Paul would whip your a@#s for saying that, haha...I think (hope?) that mets dig way deeper into the toolbox than us hobbyists do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, swva said: Haha!! I was thinking the same thing. I’m home and Redfield has a Blizzard Warning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Don Paul would whip your a@#s for saying that, haha...I think (hope?) that mets dig way deeper into the toolbox than us hobbyists do. I'm not so sure. He posts tropical tidbits on his facebook page all the time. You can use drop sounds readings for temperature and wind profiles. But those are incorporated into models. BUFKIT is a great tool as well. But other than that what else is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Let me rephrase that: Here is the first stab from NWS Forecast Offices of the Northeast. Does Bing even have any say in this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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