BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 Figure we keep this thread going until we get close to the next winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Figure we keep this thread going until we get close to the next winter event. So November 2018? Just crackin wise...i hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Author Share Posted January 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So November 2018? Just crackin wise...i hope. I'm pretty confident 2nd and 3rd week of Feb will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So November 2018? Just crackin wise...i hope. You're not kidding. Do you see that Bermuda High/Atlantic ridge that forms around day 5? It then comes back with a vengeance around day 10. Brutal stuff. Annual ski trip to the 'dacks and Vermont is from feb 4th to 9th. Not feeling so good about this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 We're headed to Stowe for 5 days beginning February 1. I'm not feeling the love right now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 2 hours ago, cny rider said: We're headed to Stowe for 5 days beginning February 1. I'm not feeling the love right now........ I think soon after that the cold pattern comes back. Also anniversary of Jan 1985 blizzard in Buffalo. http://www.weather.gov/buf/HistoryJAN21.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Watch this developing LP on the second cold front. Think 6 Days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February. Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold." The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada. This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable. We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 It's kind of crazy that the NAO hasn't been negative since late November. Not the greatest look the next week or so, but not horrible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 The big EPO ridge is getting closer on the EPS...confidence increasing that we're back to winter by 1st week of Feb...and yeah, it looks like ridge migrates east a little so that it becomes more of a PNA ridge...that would be ideal. Looks like the pattern would be ripe for some brutal cold too with a very powerful PV on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 I'll pass on the brutal cold. Give me a battleground pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Whoever thinks winter is over in upstate New York is just fooling themselves. With the kind of cold we just experienced for the past month, a good ole thaw was inevitableSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Flood time again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Flood time again! I know you guys told me not to go by the gauges cause they're not always accurate during ice jams but I've been watching them all night and am amazed at how quickly all 3 (Caz, Cayuga, and Buffalo) are rising. Are you at Stevenson again and is it as high as last time? Also neat to see the fog above the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Gotta head down there in a bit. Got some pics from a neighbor... Looks pretty high and rising. Ice is much thinner but it's slushy slop with no where to go. The river is jammed and no rain yet so their isn't much pressure to blow this out. I'm surprised how the Caz gauge has been a steady rise all day. Usually it peaks and drops as the jams pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Gotta head down there in a bit. Got some pics from a neighbor... Looks pretty high and rising. Ice is much thinner but it's slushy slop with no where to go. The river is jammed and no rain yet so their isn't much pressure to blow this out. I'm surprised how the Caz gauge has been a steady rise all day. Usually it peaks and drops as the jams pass. Wow, Cayuga Creek at Lancaster has risen about 5 feet in the last few hours and rising rapidly and is now over 10 feet putting it in Moderate a Flood stage and well above any forecast. Let's hope it stops soon because major flood stage is only 2 more feet and I've seen Cayuga Creek at major flood stage and it's not pretty at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 I want a full out torch the next 15 days if this comes to fruition. We need to melt the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 This is from the 20th, so probably lost a lot of ice the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flood Warning for... Central Erie County in western New York... * Until 615 AM EST Tuesday. * At 616 PM EST, the gauge at Gardenville on Buffalo Creek was near flood stage and will continue to rise tonight. Rises are also occurring Cayuga Creek and Cazenovia Creek. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Lackawanna, Depew, Lancaster, Elma and Small Boat Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Jammed up pretty good. Ice is crazy thick. 8-10ft ice bergs sitting in thee middle of the creek... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I want a full out torch the next 15 days if this comes to fruition. We need to melt the lake. Not that this should be taken verbatim but seems like a roller coaster ride the next 2weeks or so, plenty of warmth to melt ice but nothing bone chilling..Can see once we head into FEB temps start to trend downward..Euro OP has 4 potential 50 degree days over the next 10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GEFS agrees with the EPS on a below normal 1st week of feb (I only care about max temps) , we don’t need brutal cold nor do I want it lol But I think we get back on the “snowy side” of things between feb2nd-4th if current LR Guidance is to be believed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Was awakened this morning by thunder rumbling in the distance. Not thundersnow, but I'll take any thunder I can get in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The Euro has a pretty interesting look for next Monday. I know it’s a week away and probably won’t be there on the next run but at least it’s something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Of course three days later we’re in the 60s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, coh said: Was awakened this morning by thunder rumbling in the distance. Not thundersnow, but I'll take any thunder I can get in January! I thought a bomb exploded last night. Judging by Twitter, it woke up all of northern Erie County. Mega thunder bombogenisis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, coh said: Was awakened this morning by thunder rumbling in the distance. Not thundersnow, but I'll take any thunder I can get in January! I was awakened by the sound of hail hitting my house. It was over by the time I could get up to see the size but I’m sure it was pretty small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 44 minutes ago, coh said: Was awakened this morning by thunder rumbling in the distance. Not thundersnow, but I'll take any thunder I can get in January! Yeah it woke me too. The puppy woke up and was freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Boy that’s some nice looking wrap around/lake enhancement on the 0z euro, over a foot at Kroc lol To bad it’s 150 hrs away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 What the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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