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Upstate/Eastern New York


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11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So November 2018? Just crackin wise...i hope.

You're not kidding.  Do you see that Bermuda High/Atlantic ridge that forms around day 5?  It then comes back with a vengeance around day 10.  Brutal stuff.  Annual ski trip to the 'dacks and Vermont is from feb 4th to 9th.  Not feeling so good about this year.  

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Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February.  Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold."

The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada.  This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable.  We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. 

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The big EPO ridge is getting closer on the EPS...confidence increasing that we're back to winter by 1st week of Feb...and yeah, it looks like ridge migrates east a little so that it becomes more of a PNA ridge...that would be ideal. Looks like the pattern would be ripe for some brutal cold too with a very powerful PV on our side of the globe.

 

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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Flood time again!

 

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I know you guys told me not to go by the gauges cause they're not always accurate during ice jams but I've been watching them all night and am amazed at how quickly all 3 (Caz, Cayuga, and Buffalo) are rising. Are you at Stevenson again and is it as high as last time? Also neat to see the fog above the ice.

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Gotta head down there in a bit.  Got some pics from a neighbor... Looks pretty high and rising.  Ice is much thinner but it's slushy slop with no where to go.  The river is jammed and no rain yet so their isn't much pressure to blow this out.  I'm surprised how the Caz gauge has been a steady rise all day.  Usually it peaks and drops as the jams pass.

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19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Gotta head down there in a bit.  Got some pics from a neighbor... Looks pretty high and rising.  Ice is much thinner but it's slushy slop with no where to go.  The river is jammed and no rain yet so their isn't much pressure to blow this out.  I'm surprised how the Caz gauge has been a steady rise all day.  Usually it peaks and drops as the jams pass.

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Wow, Cayuga Creek at Lancaster has risen about 5 feet in the last few hours and rising rapidly and is now over 10 feet putting it in Moderate a Flood stage and well above any forecast. Let's hope it stops soon because major flood stage is only 2 more feet and I've seen Cayuga Creek at major flood stage and it's not pretty at all...

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The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Central Erie County in western New York...

* Until 615 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 616 PM EST, the gauge at Gardenville on Buffalo Creek was near
  flood stage and will continue to rise tonight. Rises are also
  occurring Cayuga Creek and Cazenovia Creek.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Lackawanna, Depew, Lancaster,
  Elma and Small Boat Harbor.
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11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I want a full out torch the next 15 days if this comes to fruition. We need to melt the lake. 

K4mL1NX.png

 

Not that this should be taken verbatim but seems like a roller coaster ride the next 2weeks or so, plenty of warmth to melt ice but nothing bone chilling..Can see once we head into FEB temps start to trend downward..Euro OP has 4 potential 50 degree days over the next 10..

 

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21 minutes ago, coh said:

Was awakened this morning by thunder rumbling in the distance. Not thundersnow, but I'll take any thunder I can get in January!

I was awakened by the sound of hail hitting my house. It was over by the time I could get up to see the size but I’m sure it was pretty small. 

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