CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 You definitely have a lot more snow than I do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs picking up on what euro was showing last night. Lots of lake enhanced snow with next storm middle of next week for south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 For the weekend storm. GFS and Canadian are pretty bullish for 12+ in the ROC area. The 12k NAM is east and dry (weaker LP and east track), the 3k NAM focuses on WNY (stronger LP and a bit more west than 12k), but dry as well. GFS is further west and strong LP (996). 12z Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 First ice jam flood warning in effect. Silver creek and walnut creek in the village of silver creek in Chautauqua County. Very low in that area could cause issues in the village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs picking up on what euro was showing last night. Lots of lake enhanced snow with next storm middle of next week for south shore Looks like a nice little clipper/Miller B next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Perhaps advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs picking up on what euro was showing last night. Lots of lake enhanced snow with next storm middle of next week for south shore GFS has a west-to-east LP track just south of NY with a transfer to the coast. ROC does well in those situations. Not sure it's a true Miller B type storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like a nice little clipper/Miller B next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Perhaps advisory snows. That's an SNE blockbuster storm. Quit trying to steal their snow, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: That's an SNE blockbuster storm. Quit trying to steal their snow, again. We’ve got to fight for what belongs to us, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 While we wait for the euro, here is the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: While we wait for the euro, here is the UK That's a nice run for all of Upstate. A little stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Wow. Not all of this is snow, but still big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Wow Don't get too jazzed, a lot of rain in that qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Don't get too jazzed, a lot of rain in that qpf... Stronger low, more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Last nights UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This is going to be one of those situations where, regardless of how much snow we get, the roads are going to become treacherous in a hurry tomorrow night as temperatures fall below freezing and the rain changes to ZR/IP then snow. Perfect conditions to get a quick layer of ice on untreated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro is stronger, but looks more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Incredible temperature swing in upstate NY last few days...I was at -20 at my location near Watertown Sunday morning, now pushing 60 at BUF. An 80 degree temp swing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro has a stronger shortwave but the northern stream pressing down a bit shifts the northern edge southeast a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Now that's a Clown map I can fully endorse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 ARW: NMM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Here’s the current local TV meteorologists forecasts. I think channel 9 is going to have to adjust their totals south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Here’s the current local TV meteorologists forecasts. I think channel 9 is going to have to adjust their totals south and east. 4-8" does look a bit low here but their cutoff in heavier snowfalls down in BGM area and NE looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WSYR is known to start low, only to add as they see their totals being eclipsed throughout the area, so they win either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 15 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: WSYR is known to start low, only to add as they see their totals being eclipsed throughout the area, so they win either way. Honestly the smart move. All offices should do that. That way you rarely bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Honestly the smart move. All offices should do that. That way you rarely bust. Depends how you define verification or bust. I guess I'd use 4cast closest to onset of storm. Otherwise...hard to score a moving target.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Depends how you define verification or bust. I guess I'd use 4cast closest to onset of storm. Otherwise...hard to score a moving target.. Maybe that’s why they brag about having CNY’s most accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ARW: NMM: The ARW actually makes the most sense to me...the way it captures the lake enhancement off lake Ontario is the first model to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is stronger, but looks more SE. This isn't so bad for the south shore as the stronger LP will draw colder air in on that NE flow for greater LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 HPC product. Roc picking up a good chance at greater than a foot. 20% of greater than 18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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