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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ratios are being overplayed I think. Mid-levels are pretty warm with the system. 

Good point. It's one of the reasons why i take 50-75% of clown maps, esp Kuchera maps, as a more realistic forecast. It's hand waving to be sure but rarely do all factors line up perfectly for snow production.  Still results in a pretty good storm for most here.

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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Good point. It's one of the reasons why i take 50-75% of clown maps, esp Kuchera maps, as a more realistic forecast. It's hand waving to be sure but rarely do all factors line up perfectly for snow production.  Still results in a pretty good storm for most here.

Also, as noted in some of the snowfall total maps from TropTidbits, they can include sleet, which obviously makes the maps overblown for mixed p-type events like this.

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It’s not like it’s a heavy wet snow, I know more goes into than surface temps, Euro drops them from 30-9 as the event is unfolding..850s from 0c to -13c , 700mb from 0c to -12c, 925 mb temps between-4c and -16c..I think ratios should improve as the event is unfolding, nws mentions this especially with any potential lake enhancement..

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It’s not like it’s a heavy wet snow, I know more goes into than surface temps, Euro drops them from 30-9 as the event is unfolding..850s from 0c to -13c , 700mb from 0c to -12c, 925 mb temps between-4c and -16c..I think ratios should improve as the event is unfolding, nws mentions this especially with any potential lake enhancement..

Agree.

For our area, KSYR/KFZY, I'm roughly figuring  storm precip is ~10%  PL/IP, and ratios start low, say 9, and move towards our usual 15-18 as storm progresses (arctic airmass pushing S&E).  How much precip falls at a particular set of conditions obviously a sliding scale. It appears around 1/2 of precip will be at lower ratios, say 9-10.  For total qpf, i usually take a compromise between GFS and NAM (not hi-res). So, between, 1-1.25" LE here per 0Z GFS/NAM text output, figure 1.0" is snow LE.  I haven't run BUFKIT in a few years so not sure about Omega and DGZ alignment, and only eyeballed text output at various layers for temps/RH, etc., etc. But, I'd take another 10-20% off to account for those factors not being prime for snow growth any given event.

So, I'm thinking around 10-12" for us based on the 0z runs. There won't be much CSI/banding with this storm but that's hard to accurately place/forecast anyway. I do look at hi-res NWP for those signatures. I also don't account for lake enhancement or LES afterwards for here, for this event. Not expecting much. KROC could be different.

I wouldn't waste much mental candy on off hr model runs other than maybe trend confirmation. In cases like this, they just oscillate around a midpoint solution and cause unwarranted angst. Or hope.

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44 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Agree.

For our area, KSYR/KFZY, I'm roughly figuring  storm precip is ~10%  PL/IP, and ratios start low, say 9, and move towards our usual 15-18 as storm progresses (arctic airmass pushing S&E).  How much precip falls at a particular set of conditions obviously a sliding scale. It appears around 1/2 of precip will be at lower ratios, say 9-10.  For total qpf, i usually take a compromise between GFS and NAM (not hi-res). So, between, 1-1.25" LE here per 0Z GFS/NAM text output, figure 1.0" is snow LE.  I haven't run BUFKIT in a few years so not sure about Omega and DGZ alignment, and only eyeballed text output at various layers for temps/RH, etc., etc. But, I'd take another 10-20% off to account for those factors not being prime for snow growth any given event.

So, I'm thinking around 10-12" for us based on the 0z runs. There won't be much CSI/banding with this storm but that's hard to accurately place/forecast anyway. I do look at hi-res NWP for those signatures. I also don't account for lake enhancement or LES afterwards for here, for this event. Not expecting much. KROC could be different.

I wouldn't waste much mental candy on off hr model runs other than maybe trend confirmation. In cases like this, they just oscillate around a midpoint solution and cause unwarranted angst. Or hope.

Good write up. Thanks

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Current conditions at

Fulton, Oswego County Airport (KFZY)

Lat: 43.35°NLon: 76.39°WElev: 476ft.
ovc.png

Overcast

62°F

17°C

Humidity 37%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph
Barometer 30.15 in (1020.9 mb)
Dewpoint 35°F (2°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update

11 Jan 9:54 am EST

 

This is a mini torch for sure!

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Why do you think that

Because its initialization didn't really match up to well with the 12Z Meso Analysis, but that doesn't always work but it was just something I noticed.  It also seems to be pushing the cold dense Arctic air in here a bit too fast which strips the area of practically all synoptic moisture and I think its gonna be a bit dirtier than what its showing.

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