tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6z 12k NAM came in stronger and a tic west. Majority of WNY and CNY over a foot. Hard cutoff about 25 miles NW of 0z. Buf and Roc close. I imagine 3k will be a bit further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 As expected, NAM 3k is a ripper 10:1 ratios and Kroc still gets 15”. Adjust it to a more appropriate 12 or 15:1 and we are in my original fcst of 18”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Ratios are being overplayed I think. Mid-levels are pretty warm with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Ok I consider myself a snow guy all the way, winter is my favorite season, skiing, ice fishing the like, but that said it does feel nice out this morning!!! Now here's to hoping we all jackpot this weekend!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 06z NAM 12k & 3k have same LP placement. Hmm. Buf lowered totals in watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah thats a big storm for places in central NY Similar look as the 12 k nam which drops nearly 2” liquid in parts of cny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Ratios are being overplayed I think. Mid-levels are pretty warm with the system. Good point. It's one of the reasons why i take 50-75% of clown maps, esp Kuchera maps, as a more realistic forecast. It's hand waving to be sure but rarely do all factors line up perfectly for snow production. Still results in a pretty good storm for most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillifan22 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Syrmax said: Good point. It's one of the reasons why i take 50-75% of clown maps, esp Kuchera maps, as a more realistic forecast. It's hand waving to be sure but rarely do all factors line up perfectly for snow production. Still results in a pretty good storm for most here. Also, as noted in some of the snowfall total maps from TropTidbits, they can include sleet, which obviously makes the maps overblown for mixed p-type events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 It’s not like it’s a heavy wet snow, I know more goes into than surface temps, Euro drops them from 30-9 as the event is unfolding..850s from 0c to -13c , 700mb from 0c to -12c, 925 mb temps between-4c and -16c..I think ratios should improve as the event is unfolding, nws mentions this especially with any potential lake enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 All globals have gone back west and stronger a tic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I want my 55 inches like the euro showed last night. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It’s not like it’s a heavy wet snow, I know more goes into than surface temps, Euro drops them from 30-9 as the event is unfolding..850s from 0c to -13c , 700mb from 0c to -12c, 925 mb temps between-4c and -16c..I think ratios should improve as the event is unfolding, nws mentions this especially with any potential lake enhancement.. Agree. For our area, KSYR/KFZY, I'm roughly figuring storm precip is ~10% PL/IP, and ratios start low, say 9, and move towards our usual 15-18 as storm progresses (arctic airmass pushing S&E). How much precip falls at a particular set of conditions obviously a sliding scale. It appears around 1/2 of precip will be at lower ratios, say 9-10. For total qpf, i usually take a compromise between GFS and NAM (not hi-res). So, between, 1-1.25" LE here per 0Z GFS/NAM text output, figure 1.0" is snow LE. I haven't run BUFKIT in a few years so not sure about Omega and DGZ alignment, and only eyeballed text output at various layers for temps/RH, etc., etc. But, I'd take another 10-20% off to account for those factors not being prime for snow growth any given event. So, I'm thinking around 10-12" for us based on the 0z runs. There won't be much CSI/banding with this storm but that's hard to accurately place/forecast anyway. I do look at hi-res NWP for those signatures. I also don't account for lake enhancement or LES afterwards for here, for this event. Not expecting much. KROC could be different. I wouldn't waste much mental candy on off hr model runs other than maybe trend confirmation. In cases like this, they just oscillate around a midpoint solution and cause unwarranted angst. Or hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 44 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Agree. For our area, KSYR/KFZY, I'm roughly figuring storm precip is ~10% PL/IP, and ratios start low, say 9, and move towards our usual 15-18 as storm progresses (arctic airmass pushing S&E). How much precip falls at a particular set of conditions obviously a sliding scale. It appears around 1/2 of precip will be at lower ratios, say 9-10. For total qpf, i usually take a compromise between GFS and NAM (not hi-res). So, between, 1-1.25" LE here per 0Z GFS/NAM text output, figure 1.0" is snow LE. I haven't run BUFKIT in a few years so not sure about Omega and DGZ alignment, and only eyeballed text output at various layers for temps/RH, etc., etc. But, I'd take another 10-20% off to account for those factors not being prime for snow growth any given event. So, I'm thinking around 10-12" for us based on the 0z runs. There won't be much CSI/banding with this storm but that's hard to accurately place/forecast anyway. I do look at hi-res NWP for those signatures. I also don't account for lake enhancement or LES afterwards for here, for this event. Not expecting much. KROC could be different. I wouldn't waste much mental candy on off hr model runs other than maybe trend confirmation. In cases like this, they just oscillate around a midpoint solution and cause unwarranted angst. Or hope. Good write up. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 ICON performing terribly. It’s had the wildest swings. Back west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 z Nam looks bad for western areas. I’ll wait for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3k Nam (top), 12k nam (bottom) using Kuchera.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 I thought the 3KM NAM was just a higher resolution then the 12KM not a completely separate model. Why are they so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Not much change in track. Just drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I think for s/se of Ontario it’s picking up on some enhancement..Kuchera showing 20-25/1 ratios during that time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The globals dried up yesterday. Then where wetter past couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Haven’t looked much into it but I think nam is a good deal faster, out of here by 12z sat, I have 100%pops for sat and 70% sat night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 0z Euro has 1.4” LE in form of snow, 6z nam had 1.5-1.75”, precipitation always hard to forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Todays 12Z suite should nail this track and whatnot as we're within 24 hrs of this event, but then again, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I already think the 12Z NAM is way to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Why do you think that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Current conditions at Fulton, Oswego County Airport (KFZY) Lat: 43.35°NLon: 76.39°WElev: 476ft. Overcast 62°F 17°C Humidity 37% Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph Barometer 30.15 in (1020.9 mb) Dewpoint 35°F (2°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Last update 11 Jan 9:54 am EST This is a mini torch for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 And yet the glacier in my front yard has yet to go down I’m sure if will take a hit soon or later.. The only difference so far is I can finally see parts of my drive way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Why do you think that Because its initialization didn't really match up to well with the 12Z Meso Analysis, but that doesn't always work but it was just something I noticed. It also seems to be pushing the cold dense Arctic air in here a bit too fast which strips the area of practically all synoptic moisture and I think its gonna be a bit dirtier than what its showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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