Revracer800 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I've got 53 here in Hannibal also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 18z GFS moving heavier Qpf east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Starting to realize it actually does feel better to be in the bullseye. No matter how many hours out. This east trend has got to end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 WPC probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Another shift east on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 A few more shifts and we have an open wave with no storm. Each model run the low gets weaker and weaker with no phase. I wouldn't get locked in until tomorrow nights runs. Maybe even Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS is weak and east. Onto the next one. Barely winter storm warning criteria anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is weak and east. Onto the next one. Barely winter storm warning criteria anywhere. That's the best run yet for Eastern NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Still has CNY in 6-10, I’d take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: That's the best run yet for Eastern NY Yeah, but a much weaker low pressure than last few nights. From Chicago to Albany in 3 days, models are getting better or worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, but a much weaker low pressure than last few nights. From Chicago to Albany in 3 days, models are getting better or worse? Well the first storm trended much stronger which in turn shifts the baroclinic zone and second storm SE. The first storm has become very very wet, over 2 inches of rain now in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Panic! It’s only 11”... comeon. This still looks pretty decent for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Well the first storm trended much stronger which in turn shifts the baroclinic zone and second storm SE. The first storm has become very very wet, over 2 inches of rain now in spots It never phases like it was last night. It's much weaker, now barely a semblance of last nights beast euro with massive QPF. It's more of an overrunning event now, than an actual storm. The negative tilt is completely gone, the really high snowfall rates are gone too. Bottoms out at 1000 MB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 reg/gem is looking solid for Buffalo to Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 No phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, but a much weaker low pressure than last few nights. From Chicago to Albany in 3 days, models are getting better or worse? (Some) people seem to ignore the fact that the models can only work with the data they're given. The energy for this system didn't come fully onshore until today, so it's not surprising to see these shifts. It still could be a decent storm for a lot of us (I won't turn down 10"+ which certainly seems possible near ROC with lake enhancement), but not the monumental one it looked like a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Its pretty sad when you have to rely on the rgen or GGEM to give you a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Stolen from Cranky (image not thoughts). 0z actually a bit more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Its pretty sad when you have to rely on the rgen or GGEM to give you a nice event. rgem is money dude, it's a good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 We need Tim in here to inject some optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 i'm happy with a 6-10" overrunning event. I'll take it with a smile on my face, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, coh said: (Some) people seem to ignore the fact that the models can only work with the data they're given. The energy for this system didn't come fully onshore until today, so it's not surprising to see these shifts. It still could be a decent storm for a lot of us (I won't turn down 10"+ which certainly seems possible near ROC with lake enhancement), but not the monumental one it looked like a couple of days ago. Yeah it's still a good storm for central new york. Just not for WNY. Last nights run had insane potential for almost the entire sub-forum with 20-25" (2-3" per hour) with backside enhancement and good winds. Now we get max snowfall rates of 1" per hour, less enhancement and no winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: rgem is money dude, it's a good model. I know bro, just busting balls, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 We will still see enhancement. How much? Who knows. But if you saw this a week ago you’d be psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I’m sure ksyr is not complaining, they went from 4”-5” with lots of mixing to all snow and over a foot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Well usually the correction stops and things tend to go back west a bit we shall see. But still looks good for rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 km still farther west heaviest from Cleveland to buffalo rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Well usually the correction stops and things tend to go back west a bit we shall see. But still looks good for rochester. This is NOT going back West, so I hope ppl on this sub-forum is not hoping on a NW trend the last couple days. If anything, it'll continue to trend East, and we'll be next to say, on to the next one, but not yet as I think this is now a CNY event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: 3 km still farther west heaviest from Cleveland to buffalo rochester Cherry pick all the models to see which ones give KBUF and KROC the best snow, and go with that one, cause thats your best chance right about now. Thats what I did with the NAM and look how it turned out, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3k nam by 12 sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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