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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Trigger pulled:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
303 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

NYZ002>004-011>014-019-085-110500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.180112T2100Z-180113T2100Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Batavia,
Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Orchard Park,
and Springville
303 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Travel will
  be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8
  to 14 inches and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch are
  possible.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston,
  Ontario, Chautauqua, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel
may become difficult, so plan accordingly.
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Interesting BUF AFD details:

Here are two ways this system can miss.  First, the low could track
along the baroclinic zone along the Atlantic coastline similar to
the 12Z ECMWF. This could result in much less snow to the west,
diminishing amounts across the Niagara Frontier.  Also, the Western
Southern Tier is very close to the frontal boundary, with a warm
layer between 700-850mb which could chance precipitation over to
sleet or freezing rain. Forecast confidence is highest between these
two areas, but keep in mind the track and evolution of the system
can still change the area of greatest impact. For these reasons a
winter storm watch was issued for the entire region
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26 minutes ago, WxNoob said:

Thing keeps trending east.  Binghamton to jackpot when it's all said and done?

Eh... even though a track east of the spine is appearing likely I'm not overly optimistic about the chances of the greater BGM area getting significant accums. Still leaning toward it being mostly a slop fest around these parts. I could see the Elmira-Ithaca-Cortland corridor forming the eastern edge of appreciable amounts. Actually a bit surprised BGM didn't include another tier of counties to the s/e in the watch but plenty of lead time left. 

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10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We knew last night it wouldn’t move further west. I think it was freak who said it could go east....

Yes unfortunately it was me and I wish I hadn't said anything. Like I said, There's nothing stopping it from moving further East and diminishing the back edge of the precip even further than it has, and I mean in Ontario CA.

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This isn't going that much further east (or west) although some adjustments always possible/likely.  It's not like this is a Miller B system where a bunch of wild dynamics have to come together. It's a glorified frontal wave with an arctic airmass seeping S&E.... we could see the axis of heaviest snow ending up 50-100 miles east or west, from where NWS currently thinks, but not gonna change from SNE torching near 60 degrees to a BOS/PVD snowstorm with temps in the 30s. Thats just fantasy world.

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10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This isn't going that much further east (or west) although some adjustments always possible/likely.  It's not like this is a Miller B system where a bunch of wild dynamics have to come together. It's a glorified frontal wave with an arctic airmass seeping S&E.... we could see the axis of heaviest snow ending up 50-100 miles east or west, from where NWS currently thinks, but not gonna change from SNE torching near 60 degrees to a BOS/PVD snowstorm with temps in the 30s. Thats just fantasy world.

For some of us in lower CNY and the Finger Lakes 50-100 miles is the difference between rain and slush and a foot of snow.

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Another upstate/interior snowstorm checklist item...Bastardi and Accublunder not hyping the storm potential on social media...fixated on mid month warm-up.  

Doesn't tell you where heaviest winter precip will be.. other than it won't be on/near the bulk of their subscriber base (i-95 corridor).

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8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Well yeah Ayuud.If the new German model is correct and the other 20 are wrong- we get missed.  I’m not jumping for one run. 

WNY folks should probably fold their hands on this storm based on the icon model. When was the last time the krauts ever got something seriously wrong? Oh...wait...

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Current conditions at

Fulton, Oswego County Airport (KFZY)

Lat: 43.35°NLon: 76.39°WElev: 476ft.
novc.png

Overcast

53°F

12°C

Humidity 34%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph
Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb)
Dewpoint 25°F (-4°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last update 10 Jan 5:54 pm EST
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