WxNoob Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Thing keeps trending east. Binghamton to jackpot when it's all said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Trigger pulled: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 303 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 NYZ002>004-011>014-019-085-110500- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.180112T2100Z-180113T2100Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 303 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Begin needed preparations at home or with your vehicle. Travel may become difficult, so plan accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Interesting BUF AFD details: Here are two ways this system can miss. First, the low could track along the baroclinic zone along the Atlantic coastline similar to the 12Z ECMWF. This could result in much less snow to the west, diminishing amounts across the Niagara Frontier. Also, the Western Southern Tier is very close to the frontal boundary, with a warm layer between 700-850mb which could chance precipitation over to sleet or freezing rain. Forecast confidence is highest between these two areas, but keep in mind the track and evolution of the system can still change the area of greatest impact. For these reasons a winter storm watch was issued for the entire region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18z 12k NAM east with the Euro...oi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, WxNoob said: Thing keeps trending east. Binghamton to jackpot when it's all said and done? Eh... even though a track east of the spine is appearing likely I'm not overly optimistic about the chances of the greater BGM area getting significant accums. Still leaning toward it being mostly a slop fest around these parts. I could see the Elmira-Ithaca-Cortland corridor forming the eastern edge of appreciable amounts. Actually a bit surprised BGM didn't include another tier of counties to the s/e in the watch but plenty of lead time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, vortmax said: 18z 12k NAM east with the Euro...oi! NAM 18z is a solid hit for all of WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: NAM 18z is a solid hit for all of WNY Referring to the trend...not liking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Yes, the old forecasters saying...the trend is your friend (or enemy in this case). As the system is getting better sampled, the resulting storm edges further east. I think there's a good chance that trend continues with the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, vortmax said: Referring to the trend...not liking... I noticed the wsw for northern Erie is for 6 to 12 and just east is 8 to 14...not a huge difference but just noticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 We knew last night it wouldn’t move further west. I think it was freak who said it could go east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: We knew last night it wouldn’t move further west. I think it was freak who said it could go east.... Yes unfortunately it was me and I wish I hadn't said anything. Like I said, There's nothing stopping it from moving further East and diminishing the back edge of the precip even further than it has, and I mean in Ontario CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Sums it up nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This isn't going that much further east (or west) although some adjustments always possible/likely. It's not like this is a Miller B system where a bunch of wild dynamics have to come together. It's a glorified frontal wave with an arctic airmass seeping S&E.... we could see the axis of heaviest snow ending up 50-100 miles east or west, from where NWS currently thinks, but not gonna change from SNE torching near 60 degrees to a BOS/PVD snowstorm with temps in the 30s. Thats just fantasy world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: I’d take it and run! Lol. Why must they set themselves up like this. Unless it’s historic- nowhere to go but down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: This isn't going that much further east (or west) although some adjustments always possible/likely. It's not like this is a Miller B system where a bunch of wild dynamics have to come together. It's a glorified frontal wave with an arctic airmass seeping S&E.... we could see the axis of heaviest snow ending up 50-100 miles east or west, from where NWS currently thinks, but not gonna change from SNE torching near 60 degrees to a BOS/PVD snowstorm with temps in the 30s. Thats just fantasy world. For some of us in lower CNY and the Finger Lakes 50-100 miles is the difference between rain and slush and a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Sorry WNY folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Channel 4 in house is way NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Crazy torch going on right now. 55 in Fulton, 46 in Roch, 42 in Buf. I think we all see some 60s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Another upstate/interior snowstorm checklist item...Bastardi and Accublunder not hyping the storm potential on social media...fixated on mid month warm-up. Doesn't tell you where heaviest winter precip will be.. other than it won't be on/near the bulk of their subscriber base (i-95 corridor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Crazy torch going on right now. 55 in Fulton, 46 in Roch, 42 in Buf. I think we all see some 60s tomorrow. I don’t know if I believe 55 in Fulton. I’m 20 miles away and I’ve got 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I don’t know if I believe 55 in Fulton. I’m 20 miles away and I’ve got 35. It's correct unless its broken. Downslope 20 miles away here goes from 46 to 33. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=258&y=131&site=buf&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=258&map_y=131#.WlaV0K6nEuU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, WxNoob said: For some of us in lower CNY and the Finger Lakes 50-100 miles is the difference between rain and slush and a foot of snow. I think thats the case for all of us in CNY/WNY/NNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Early calls from the locals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 31 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Sorry WNY folks.. Yeah, no surprise - we can’t buy a good snowfall, synoptic or lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, WNash said: Yeah, no surprise - we can’t buy a good snowfall, synoptic or lake. It's the Icon model. I think he posted it as a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 35 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Sorry WNY folks.. Well yeah Ayuud.If the new German model is correct and the other 20 are wrong- we get missed. I’m not jumping for one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Well yeah Ayuud.If the new German model is correct and the other 20 are wrong- we get missed. I’m not jumping for one run. WNY folks should probably fold their hands on this storm based on the icon model. When was the last time the krauts ever got something seriously wrong? Oh...wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 ICON, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Current conditions at Fulton, Oswego County Airport (KFZY) Lat: 43.35°NLon: 76.39°WElev: 476ft. Overcast 53°F 12°C Humidity 34% Wind Speed Vrbl 6 mph Barometer 30.16 in (1021.5 mb) Dewpoint 25°F (-4°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill 51°F (11°C) Last update 10 Jan 5:54 pm EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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