BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Colder again. Goes negative tilt at perfect time. Much stronger then GFS, best run yet I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Huge hit if it’s all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Oh Christ. One of us has got to get expensive access to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Huge hit if it’s all snow Yeah, going to be massive 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, rochesterdave said: Oh Christ. One of us has got to get expensive access to Euro. Wolfie has it, just post everyone else is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Gfs like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gfs like.. Figured it would be massive, literally the most perfect synoptic system I've seen for Upstate. Lock in the Euro please. Also has well aligned flow behind for Lake Enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1.5"+ of QPF in narrow strip across WNY to Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 That band of heavy snow is 100-150 miles wide. Not a wide margin of error. Still a few days away so don't get to excited yet. Looks to start Friday Afternoon and end early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 16” on the euro and 19” on the Gfs but not far away from a lot less and more ice, still treading lightly lol Can use just a smidge colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I knew it! This one is classic boys. ****. Can this hold out for another 72 hrs? Hot damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: I knew it! This one is classic boys. ****. Can this hold out for another 72 hrs? Hot damn. Change that avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Change that avatar. That ones for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 When I take an important picture, I aim for seriousness before anything else. At the last moment, just before the flash, I like to insert a bit of irony, just for kicks (of course). Im sure you understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That band of heavy snow is 100-150 miles wide. Not a wide margin of error. Still a few days away so don't get to excited yet. Looks to start Friday Afternoon and end early Sunday morning. Actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about that narrow sweet spot. I bet it widens. It is a bit worrisome. But listen, I’ve been obsessing over this nonsense for 30 years and I can honestly say, this is the most consistent forecast I’ve ever been seen. It scares me how slotted this thing has been. Look at the GFS! It goes back days now with shifts of 50 miles back and forth. It’s reminiscent of the lead time ‘93 had. Seriously. And I truly believe one of us sees a similar result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nothing is stopping this thing from going further to the East so ppl should really not be rejoicing just yet I doubt it goes back to the NW as the HP to it's NW is a definite block so it has no choice to exit stage right, IMHO. I doubt there's enough time for any drastic changes but once this heads up the East side of the spine, I would start to get a bit concerned for that strip of snow to follow so I'll remain cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 We can afford a little east shift, especially on the euro, snow accumulations drop in half about 40 miles east..Actually if u look at Oswego county the eastern part sees 7-8” while near the lake shore close to 20”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nam looks east and cold .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nam at hr 84, 10-1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 And still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 With ratios..Forget wb includes sleet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Back and forth we go..6z Gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Ratios would think would start 12 to 1. But rise quickly to 20 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Now that the forum is up again. 12z models are coming in: GFS: East - big hit for Genesee valley ECMWF: East and suppressed - not a blockbuster for WNY 12k NAM - big hit for most of WNY Canadian - big hit for most of WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Looks like big ice is off the table at least for ROC-BUF area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Sorry for breaking American with my rants last night. Ugly 12z runs. Hope this trend stops or it WILL be benchmark!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro still gives well over a foot. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro still gives well over a foot. Jeez Lake enhancement will play a larger role with a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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