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Upstate/Eastern New York


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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band of heavy snow is 100-150 miles wide. Not a wide margin of error. Still a few days away so don't get to excited yet. Looks to start Friday Afternoon and end early Sunday morning.

Actually, I’ve been thinking a lot about that narrow sweet spot. I bet it widens. It is a bit worrisome. But listen, I’ve been obsessing over this nonsense for 30 years and I can honestly say, this is the most consistent forecast I’ve ever been seen. It scares me how slotted this thing has been. 

Look at the GFS! It goes back days now with shifts of 50 miles back and forth. It’s reminiscent of the lead time ‘93 had. Seriously. And I truly believe one of us sees a similar result. 

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Nothing is stopping this thing from going further to the East so ppl should really not be rejoicing just yet  I doubt it goes back to the NW as the HP to it's NW is a definite block so it has no choice to exit stage right, IMHO.  I doubt there's enough time for any drastic changes but once this heads up the East side of the spine, I would start to get a bit concerned for that strip of snow to follow so I'll remain cautiously optimistic.

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