CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just an incredible rate of snow right now but to bad its flying outta here. I can't even see the neighbors lights and they're about 60 yards from me, with awesome size dendrites, which is surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Close analog for late week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It’s snowing moderate to heavy. We are not even in the LES band really but I would bet easily 1”/hr and maybe 2”/hr rates. Nice dendrites!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 From a met on another board..It’s a kicker not a phaser hence the right turn.. Correct. The only question I have at this time is whether the kicker is accurately depicted. It's coming down from an area near the pole which isn't the best sampled area. If its slower/weaker, there is more time for the storm to thrive. If faster/stronger the models say it will kick our system east and game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just under 2” and really coming down at the moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks good to me Tim, as I still think its coming a lot further West than what the globals are showing and I'll remain steadfast with my thoughts from days ago. I just can't see the SLP riding the CF then all of a sudden jump the system to the PF which makes absolutely no sense at all. Lots of convective feedback going on as well as there are 3 streams phasing up over the Northeast so it should be an exciting system to track anyway. I will be posting lots of Images for posterity like satellite, radars and many many more. Even if we're not affected directly we'll still feel the effects from the upper Level Low over the area with a resurgence of some of the coldest air since the 80's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Been snowing moderately in Williamsville from a band with Huron origins. About an inch so far, but when you were expecting nothing, it'll do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks good to me Tim, as I still think its coming a lot further West than what the globals are showing and I'll remain steadfast with my thoughts from days ago. I just can't see the SLP riding the CF then all of a sudden jump the system to the PF which makes absolutely no sense at all. Lots of convective feedback going on as well as there are 3 streams phasing up over the Northeast so it should be an exciting system to track anyway. I will be posting lots of Images for posterity like satellite, radars and many many more. Even if we're not affected directly we'll still feel the effects from the upper Level Low over the area with a resurgence of some of the coldest air since the 80's! You know to your point CNY there have been plenty of these EC storms that are shown way out in time for a few runs then everything shifts far to the east only to have the storm back where the original track was. To me the big piece of this is the NLP...if it catches up to 5he SLP they would in effect phase and draw the storm westward...i'm with you on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Reanalysis of the 1/25/2000 Don't think its that close to the upper level features but its similar in many ways and obviously its not gonna be exactly the same as no two are alike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 As you can see from snow map that was a hybrid storm for roc syr. Some synoptic but heavy enhancment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Reanalysis of the 1/25/2000 Don't think its that close to the upper level features but its similar in many ways and obviously its not gonna be exactly the same as no two are alike! Big diff is 1/25/00 was neg tilt already in the SE...I haven't seen any credible NWP showing that for this thing. Maybe that changes but positive tilt trough axes don't bode well for coast huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 A 150 mile jump to the West, in one run from last nights 00Z to today's 12Z ,with 7 more runs of trending to go, where she stops nobody knows! 00Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Big diff is 1/25/00 was neg tilt already in the SE...I haven't seen any credible NWP showing that for this thing. Maybe that changes but positive tilt trough axes don't bode well for coast huggers. I don't see a positively tilted trough but that's just me, and you may be right but I guess we'll see. This thing has been doing nothing but trending West as its easily noticeable from the heights across the NE the past few runs. 540 thickness went from MD to BGM so much so that mixing has been introduced along the coastal areas, before heights collapse. That's a big difference and its still trending. Its Monday Night and the event doesn't begin till late Thursday. I've seen storms come out of nowhere in that period of time, lol. A lot is riding on the Northern stream energy, and imo, its not being sampled properly as its still in an area in Northern reaches of Canada where data is sparse at best. Once the ensambles stop trending west, as well as the operationals, then I'll most likely throw in the towel but not till then as there is a boatload of time left for this one yet but we'll know for sure in about 2.5 days though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3" in the last hr 1.25 hrs. Not bad as it's still S+ but vis has come up just a bit. Satellite looks good but I have no radar to back it up and I won't even try to look at WSYR as I get more and more disgusted when I look at their radar knowing what it was like just a few short years ago and what its like now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I don't see a positively tilted trough but that's just me, and you may be right but I guess we'll see. This thing has been doing nothing but trending West as its easily noticeable from the heights across the NE the past few runs. 540 thickness went from MD to BGM so much so that mixing has been introduced along the coastal areas, before heights collapse. That's a big difference and its still trending. Its Monday Night and the event doesn't begin till late Thursday. I've seen storms come out of nowhere in that period of time, lol. A lot is riding on the Northern stream energy, and imo, its not being sampled properly as its still in an area in Northern reaches of Canada where data is sparse at best. Once the ensambles stop trending west, as well as the operationals, then I'll most likely throw in the towel but not till then as there is a boatload of time left for this one yet but we'll know for sure in about 2.5 days though . It's positive tilt heading into the east coast...that's what I'm referring to. Of course offshore it's not as phasing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Last nights low actually got down to -16F, pretty impressive and a good deal below forecasted..Temp dropped 12 degrees in a couple hours once clouds/snow diminished.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Once again, I'm not expecting a direct hit to our immediate area but areas much further S&E of us should pay close attention such as the Poconos and the Catskills including the Capitol district as things can, and probably will change, either for the better or for the worse and in this case, worse being further OTS and better further West. As soon as that energy currently up in Canada gets better sampled, in the coming days, things can change but I doubt it'll be as drastic as some may be thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 That's a nice streamer over northern Erie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I do know one thing, if this happens to do what I think it has the potential to do, then I'll be on the road headed for my crib in Staten Island that's for damn sure, as its been a long while since I've seen a true Nor'easter with temps in the upper teens to low 20's the closer one gets to the coast. There's a long way to go though before there's a definite answer to this forecast, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I was down in nyc/nj for every event in the 09-11 time frame lol I was also 50 miles north of Sandy’s landfall in southern jersey followed by a foot snowstorm a week later in early November!!! I was down there for 93, 96, every PD storm And most other notable nor Easter’s in the past 20 years, only thing I miss from down there, really lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a nice streamer over northern Erie right now. About 2" so far in Williamsville and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Watching football...great games...Live shot outside. 2" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 True Arctic conditions out there right now, just incredible with -sn vis maybe 1/4 mile if that, with lots of blowing and drifting going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Snowing heavily throughout Onondaga county without even the mention of any snow tonight, lol! Good job KBGM as there wasn't even a SWS issued, WTF?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Snowing heavily throughout Onondaga county without even the mention of any snow tonight, lol! Good job KBGM as there wasn't even a SWS issued, WTF?? Meh. 2" isn't worth mentioning. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well that was nice while it lasted. a quick 4" fell in just over 2 hrs, so not bad as my point and click said 2-4" for tonight so all in all a good forecast for the area but I don't see amounts getting over 8" up in Oswego but I guess things can refire up there closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It came down pretty good for a while this evening between 7:30 and 9:30, about 2.5 inches fell. Just light snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 About 4” up here. Still light snow falling.. most snow all trip. Go figure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Still looking good SE of Lake Ontario on backside of this weeks storm. Should be a solid several inches it appears. 0z GFS and GEM refuse to come in closer with slp but that's a problem for NE forum not up here. Next Friday and Sat will be super cold again with more crystal meth snow I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.