BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM goes way southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nam doesn’t look bad at hr 75.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nam doesn’t look bad at hr 75.. Shows the biggest snowstorm in Ohios history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Would be hilarious if we went from rain to a miss..I’ll wait to see what the big boys say.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I personally think the GGEM has been on a role lately especially with the recent bomb, Nor'easter as it was pretty much the only global to latch on to it being much closer to the coast, especially with its precip output, and that's what it ended up being. I'm not saying that it's right for this system in any way, trust me, but I wouldn't just throw it out either like the gang up in NE. I still believe all options are still on the table but if I we're to pick which side of the spine this thing travels, I would have to say the western side, then perhaps a secondary pops or a jump to the Coast somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 That would be a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Would be hilarious if we went from rain to a miss..I’ll wait to see what the big boys say.. OMG. You people. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Would be hilarious if we went from rain to a miss..I’ll wait to see what the big boys say.. That guy from tolland in the New England forum is using his magic to bring this to benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 NAM in long range=terrible. We will see what the 3 Globals say tonight to see if there is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That guy from tolland in the New England forum is using his magic to bring this to benchmark. Damage in Tolland is Not saying that is he seriously? He must be getting bashed to pieces over there right now. What justification is he using, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Thing is nam usually amps things up in longer range. Its not with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Thing is nam usually amps things up in longer range. Its not with this storm Yeah, it's odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Damage in Tolland is Not saying that is he seriously? He must be getting bashed to pieces over there right now. What justification is he using, lol? He always does that until the last moment, haha. He usually gets it to work out in the end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 If the NAM is even close to being right with its track and thermal profiles then somewhere in W-CNY will be absolutely buried, then the enhancement kicks in and affects the whole South Shore especially in and around KROC, which may be EPIC, but I'm just playing out a fantasy scenario in my head, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The Euro ensemble consensus has been very consistent with a SE track. My money is on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 A pretty big jump to the SE on the GFS. Here,s 18Z and 00Z nice difference especially if the thermal profiles follow suite which they should but we'll see. 18Z 00Z This is really a beautiful thing for all of us. But lets see if the other Globals follow suit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 half an hour ago weenies calling for a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Its also a tick or two stronger with its central pressure down to 998 as opposed to a 1010 SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Still 3 days away uggh and I bet the NE weenies are starting to chant a benchmark run, lol which is still possible I would think but wholeheartedly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 All weenies rejoice as the whole board gets lovin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Toronto weenies gotta be hating this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wow great hit. GEM came a little east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Storm is not as strong and not as much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Canadian Gem moves east a solid 75 miles with LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Storm is not as strong and not as much QPF. 1.5-2” is more than enough to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 UK is southeast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 We gotta keep these east jumps in the same perspective as the earlier west jumps (ensembles with NW Michigan winning). The overall model forecast has been incredibly consistent with WNY inline for a heavy snowfall with mixing likelier as you approach areas SE of Gennesse Valley. Ive been bullish on this one and am more confident now. Ice and thickness worries are real but overdone IMHO. Wanna get a peak at 0z Euro before I put down early total list. But it’s gonna be big. Someone on Thruway corridor gets 2 feet. Hope it doesn’t come across as cocky. I’m mostly just averaging maps and drawing on years of living here and hope- lots of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Hey Tim, where’ve you been? This might be a great one. I’m surprised by how quiet you’ve been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Pretty sure Euro gonna come in colder, next frame is crucial.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Way colder at 850, max of -2c at Fulton, 6 hrs later down to -12c!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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