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Need about  25 miles east on the 850mb low..The clown maps show significant accumulations here but that just not the case, maybe they are including sleet..U can see the big difference from kfzy and ksyr, seems like we may be the battle zone..

Surface and 925 mb 

8EDA9713-91AA-46FA-97D2-4DFB19CDC775.jpeg

7ECF132C-C876-4311-9392-05BAF69A9361.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Need about  25 miles east on the 850mb low..The clown maps show significant accumulations here but that just not the case, maybe they are including sleet..U can see the big difference from kfzy and ksyr, seems like we may be the battle zone..

Surface and 925 mb 

8EDA9713-91AA-46FA-97D2-4DFB19CDC775.jpeg

7ECF132C-C876-4311-9392-05BAF69A9361.jpeg

Great stuff. TY

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I’m not ready to write this off. Near perfect LP surface track with a huge HP to the NW. Tons of moisture and surface temps in the mid 20’s. 

I can’t see the upper level lows being that far to the NW. 

plus, the Euro finally came around and Gefs and Geps average are east. I’m still bullish. Nervous but bullish. I’d put NFalls and Buf in the sweet spot. Followed by anyone north of the Thruway. It’s ok if the 700 goes over us. 

Prolly wrong...but not jumping like some of u. 

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34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m not ready to write this off. Near perfect LP surface track with a huge HP to the NW. Tons of moisture and surface temps in the mid 20’s. 

I can’t see the upper level lows being that far to the NW. 

plus, the Euro finally came around and Gefs and Geps average are east. I’m still bullish. Nervous but bullish. I’d put NFalls and Buf in the sweet spot. Followed by anyone north of the Thruway. It’s ok if the 700 goes over us. 

Prolly wrong...but not jumping like some of u. 

Agreed with your assessment. This has been very consistent on GFS for days and gefs for days, euro came around to the ensembles as well as the operational models. We are now 24 hours from really having a clearer picture as the energy makes it on shore.

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Nws not giving up either, changed Friday night from rain-snow to sleet then snow..And I’m farther to the east..

Friday Night
Sleet before 10pm, then snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Saturday
Snow. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
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38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I was born in Germany and I headed west ;)

Btw German model has a resolution between 7-13km, similar to that of the Gfs/nam/euro and higher then the ggem/uk..Not that it translates into results..

Have you visited since? I want to go there to see the castles. I hear its the best spot on the planet for them? 

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Wow, I'm very surprised to see the German, GGEM and NAVGEM so far East, but is it a good sign, IDK, but I do know we still have 3 days to iron out quite a few details like thermal profiles and what-not.  If that HP can somehow get a bit stronger and push further to the S&E then we're money but I don't know if it'll get there.  Also, like a few have been sayin, this system won't be fully sampled until tomorrow's 12Z runs, so there may bee some changes, but I wouldn't count on anything drastic, this far in.

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