wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 850 low goes right over us.. 925 and 700mb are just below freezing as well as the surface, gonna come down to crunch time, lucky we still have 3+ days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Half inch ice then a foot of snow then cold ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 something about being in the bullseye this far out concerns me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Need about 25 miles east on the 850mb low..The clown maps show significant accumulations here but that just not the case, maybe they are including sleet..U can see the big difference from kfzy and ksyr, seems like we may be the battle zone.. Surface and 925 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Need about 25 miles east on the 850mb low..The clown maps show significant accumulations here but that just not the case, maybe they are including sleet..U can see the big difference from kfzy and ksyr, seems like we may be the battle zone.. Surface and 925 mb Great stuff. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 UGH! I am Deprived mid atlantic living and looking for snow. I already booked non refundable hotels in Lake George and Ticonderoga to see this one. Looks like I might have made a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z GFS is quite a bit west. Puts best snow over DET. Even in far WNY 6” at best after changeover and looks like we get dry slotted for quite a while too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 18z GFS is quite a bit west. Puts best snow over DET. Even in far WNY 6” at best after changeover and looks like we get dry slotted for quite a while too. Why is the snowfall map so off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like a damaging ice storm for Twin Tiers/Finger Lakes on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Why is the snowfall map so off? snowmaps include sleet as snow, it says right on top. The 700mb temps are pretty close to zero in BUF on the 18z gfs. So it's marginal, but you'd imagine the best snow is near London given the track of the 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Lots of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Top analog is 12/23/2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro has a crazy cut off of snow. Niagara falls with 1.5" of QPF in snow form with Olean .2 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-york/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180114-0600z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: 18z GFS is quite a bit west. Puts best snow over DET. Even in far WNY 6” at best after changeover and looks like we get dry slotted for quite a while too. I wouldn't get too wrapped up on an off-hour GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I kinda like the Indiana/Ohio jackpot. I think that's where the most dynamic part of the low will end up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I kinda like the Indiana/Ohio jackpot. I think that's where the most dynamic part of the low will end up being. Agreed, pretty much just like the analog shows. I still think KBUF gets 6-10" after ice/sleet. Thoughts on icing potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I’m not ready to write this off. Near perfect LP surface track with a huge HP to the NW. Tons of moisture and surface temps in the mid 20’s. I can’t see the upper level lows being that far to the NW. plus, the Euro finally came around and Gefs and Geps average are east. I’m still bullish. Nervous but bullish. I’d put NFalls and Buf in the sweet spot. Followed by anyone north of the Thruway. It’s ok if the 700 goes over us. Prolly wrong...but not jumping like some of u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 NavGem runs it to the benchmark. Lol. I’ll take it as a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: NavGem runs it to the benchmark. Lol. I’ll take it as a sign. Good sign...If that model showed a track over CNY, it would mean the best snow would actually end up being over Chicago and Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m not ready to write this off. Near perfect LP surface track with a huge HP to the NW. Tons of moisture and surface temps in the mid 20’s. I can’t see the upper level lows being that far to the NW. plus, the Euro finally came around and Gefs and Geps average are east. I’m still bullish. Nervous but bullish. I’d put NFalls and Buf in the sweet spot. Followed by anyone north of the Thruway. It’s ok if the 700 goes over us. Prolly wrong...but not jumping like some of u. Agreed with your assessment. This has been very consistent on GFS for days and gefs for days, euro came around to the ensembles as well as the operational models. We are now 24 hours from really having a clearer picture as the energy makes it on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nws not giving up either, changed Friday night from rain-snow to sleet then snow..And I’m farther to the east.. Friday Night Sleet before 10pm, then snow. Low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Snow. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nothing wrong with a good sleet storm, counts as snow just 1/3 the ratios lol Trying to stay away from freezing rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 You can add the German to the east crowd..That makes two lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 12z Canadian top, 18z bottom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You can add the German to the east crowd..That makes two lol Germans always want to head east. Hopefully this doesn't become our Stalingrad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I was born in Germany and I headed west Btw German model has a resolution between 7-13km, similar to that of the Gfs/nam/euro and higher then the ggem/uk..Not that it translates into results.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I was born in Germany and I headed west Btw German model has a resolution between 7-13km, similar to that of the Gfs/nam/euro and higher then the ggem/uk..Not that it translates into results.. Have you visited since? I want to go there to see the castles. I hear its the best spot on the planet for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Wow, I'm very surprised to see the German, GGEM and NAVGEM so far East, but is it a good sign, IDK, but I do know we still have 3 days to iron out quite a few details like thermal profiles and what-not. If that HP can somehow get a bit stronger and push further to the S&E then we're money but I don't know if it'll get there. Also, like a few have been sayin, this system won't be fully sampled until tomorrow's 12Z runs, so there may bee some changes, but I wouldn't count on anything drastic, this far in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Nope , moved here when I was 3 and have yet to return..(military kid) I don’t fly lol Maybe a transatlantic cruise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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