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Great write-up on the NE forum:

Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system.

The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast.

 

Nice overview. 

One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get...

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39 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Great write-up on the NE forum:

Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system.

The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast.

 

Nice overview. 

One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get...

It's really interesting and shows how so many pieces have to fit together "just right". With the Quebec PV, I don't know if it's so much the actual strength as the details and timing of the waves embedded within the vortex. If you scan back and forth between some of the runs over the past 3 days, you can see those minor alterations which have resulted in subtle shifts in the location and strength of the surface high (and thus the depth of cold air here). That whole area is a relative data void so I would expect additional changes.

Similarly, if you scroll through the 12z op gfs 500 mb vorticity maps, you see at hours 42 and 48 that the lead wave - which is the vort currently coming ashore in California - lifts out across Nebraska toward the Great Lakes (producing the cutter low) while "something" in the trailing flow amplifies across Texas and then swings across the south before turning up the Appalachians. We don't know what that "something" really looks like since it's still further offshore (as is the next system that you reference above).

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19 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

It seems to me there’s many more members that bring the good snows to our west while we get basically nada....approx 25 being conservative. About 15 over us and about 5-10 to our east...

This screams that any and all outcomes are on the table, except a Benchmark run, lol!

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KBUF

...Potentially significant snowfall Friday and Saturday...

Most model guidance continues to develop a major winter storm
which may impact our region. Some locations are likely to get
well over a foot of snow from this system, however there still
are significant differences among individual models and
ensembles which leaves uncertainty in the placement of the
heaviest snow. There also will be an area of mixed
precipitation. Stay tuned, and keep in mind that model runs are
likely to fluctuate concerning the track of the low and the
location of the heaviest snowfall.

In general, expect rain to transition to snow on Friday, with a
period of mixed precipitation likely in between. By Friday night
expect mostly snow as most guidance pushes a frontal boundary just
to our south. By Saturday, most guidance tracks the strengthening
surface low just to our south and into New England. This will drag
colder air into the region, with increasing confidence in snow and
potentially some lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario.
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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

With how this is all playing out if you live in far WNY (Niagara, Erie and to a lesser extent Chautauqua) my uneducated guess believes this area has the best chance for truly significant snowfall. Most LP tracks today are south and east of WNY.

Yeah this storm has incredible potential. The amount of precip streaming up from the gulf I haven't seen in a synoptic system in WNY in quite some time. I believe last years March storm was more Miller B than this. 

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah this storm has incredible potential. The amount of precip streaming up from the gulf I haven't seen in a synoptic system in WNY in quite some time. I believe last years March storm was more Miller B than this. 

That one was a long-duration storm as well...this seems to be shorter/higher rate synoptic event that we rarely see. Add in some lake enhancement and the south shore could score big...IF the track is right.

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Nws hasn’t strayed much with the forecast..

 

Friday Night
Rain before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday
Snow. High near 22. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
Snow before midnight, then snow showers likely after midnight. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Sunday
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
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