coh Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Key player is still offshore so I don't expect much clarity until tomorrow's evening runs. Things could shift a lot once the system is well sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yep, still chillin in the BAJA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Need all these east then we snow..It’s no coincidence that 925 mb temps are the coldest (farthest east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Pretty much in a nutshell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Need all these east then we snow..It’s no coincidence that 925 mb temps are the coldest (farthest east) Great post. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 We still need a trend E/SE to get snow, looks like rain/ice/Sleet ending as snow event right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Great write-up on the NE forum: Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system. The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast. Nice overview. One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro metrogram for kfzy, not seeing much warm through day 10 after this brief warmup.. What's a metrogram? I want one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It’s actually a meteogram (my bad) lol And from Weatherbell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I saw Euro Radar forecast. Shows snow entirely for Roc West. Im not sure how that comports with critical thickness’. But it looks good on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Picked up a little bit of snow over the last 24 hours, few stray flurries as I type.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 And yet here is the mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 39 minutes ago, vortmax said: Great write-up on the NE forum: Its more about the Quebec PV pressing down the front than anything else...the high is anchored out in the Canadian prairies and that wont change much from run to run...and it has an arm extending eastward....we need that arm to exert itself further and further south....basically push the boundary as far southeast as possible so that when the Saturday system forms, it rides up the boundary that is now to our southeast rather than almost on top of us or even to the west of us. The stronger Quebec PV pressing south will help push that boundary (and arm of high pressure) further southeast and put us on the cold side of the system. The problem is the Quebec PV has mostly trended weaker (a slight increase though on the 12z Euro...but we still need more). One other thing that may help the boundary get further southeast is to keep the southern stream energy as unphased as possible...when it partially phases, it helps to pump up the heights over the northeast and that is an opposing force to the Quebec PV pushing south. If we see it unphased down south and move a little slow, it will allow for the frontal boundary to push further and further southeast. Nice overview. One thing I will add that I think has become a critical, but an easy piece to overlook, is the shortwave coming in behind our southern stream shortwave. You can see this wave moving through Nebraska around hour 90 on the 12z GFS. Apparently, the lead disturbance will overstay its welcome--it's been lingering too long--and another potent shortwave ejecting from the rockies is on its tail. This shortwave acts to dampen the lead wave via destructive interference --as Tip would put it... I think we need to watch that second wave closely and how that interaction dampens the lead wave leading to less down stream UL height rises....Either way, I do think this trailing shortwave will prevent any semblance of a clean phase--so we're probably about as "amped up" on current guidance as we can get... It's really interesting and shows how so many pieces have to fit together "just right". With the Quebec PV, I don't know if it's so much the actual strength as the details and timing of the waves embedded within the vortex. If you scan back and forth between some of the runs over the past 3 days, you can see those minor alterations which have resulted in subtle shifts in the location and strength of the surface high (and thus the depth of cold air here). That whole area is a relative data void so I would expect additional changes. Similarly, if you scroll through the 12z op gfs 500 mb vorticity maps, you see at hours 42 and 48 that the lead wave - which is the vort currently coming ashore in California - lifts out across Nebraska toward the Great Lakes (producing the cutter low) while "something" in the trailing flow amplifies across Texas and then swings across the south before turning up the Appalachians. We don't know what that "something" really looks like since it's still further offshore (as is the next system that you reference above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 EPS looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS It seems to me there’s many more members that bring the good snows to our west while we get basically nada....approx 25 being conservative. About 15 over us and about 5-10 to our east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It seems to me there’s many more members that bring the good snows to our west while we get basically nada....approx 25 being conservative. About 15 over us and about 5-10 to our east... 22 West. 8 clip. 18 solid or east. Maybe counted a couple twice (clips vs solid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And yet here is the mean.. Now if this is the 850 lp outcome then we snow and we snow good and hard, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 19 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It seems to me there’s many more members that bring the good snows to our west while we get basically nada....approx 25 being conservative. About 15 over us and about 5-10 to our east... This screams that any and all outcomes are on the table, except a Benchmark run, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Why it’s not going further west than current runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 KBUF ...Potentially significant snowfall Friday and Saturday... Most model guidance continues to develop a major winter storm which may impact our region. Some locations are likely to get well over a foot of snow from this system, however there still are significant differences among individual models and ensembles which leaves uncertainty in the placement of the heaviest snow. There also will be an area of mixed precipitation. Stay tuned, and keep in mind that model runs are likely to fluctuate concerning the track of the low and the location of the heaviest snowfall. In general, expect rain to transition to snow on Friday, with a period of mixed precipitation likely in between. By Friday night expect mostly snow as most guidance pushes a frontal boundary just to our south. By Saturday, most guidance tracks the strengthening surface low just to our south and into New England. This will drag colder air into the region, with increasing confidence in snow and potentially some lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 With how this is all playing out if you live in far WNY (Niagara, Erie and to a lesser extent Chautauqua) my uneducated guess believes this area has the best chance for truly significant snowfall. Most LP tracks today are south and east of WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: With how this is all playing out if you live in far WNY (Niagara, Erie and to a lesser extent Chautauqua) my uneducated guess believes this area has the best chance for truly significant snowfall. Most LP tracks today are south and east of WNY. Yeah this storm has incredible potential. The amount of precip streaming up from the gulf I haven't seen in a synoptic system in WNY in quite some time. I believe last years March storm was more Miller B than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM NAM looks to be all snow for most if not all of us. Hell, it starts as snow. Critical levels all good for Thruway corridor. -from what I see. Surface, 850 and 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Even if a track is correct it doesn’t mean thermal profiles are..I’m sure the NWS doesn’t pay much attention to clown maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah this storm has incredible potential. The amount of precip streaming up from the gulf I haven't seen in a synoptic system in WNY in quite some time. I believe last years March storm was more Miller B than this. That one was a long-duration storm as well...this seems to be shorter/higher rate synoptic event that we rarely see. Add in some lake enhancement and the south shore could score big...IF the track is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nws hasn’t strayed much with the forecast.. Friday Night Rain before 8pm, then snow and sleet between 8pm and 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. High near 22. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Snow before midnight, then snow showers likely after midnight. Low around 8. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Nam is rain on the WB simulated radar, hard to trust any of these maps.. May be more about critical thicknesses then anything, on the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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