wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Not if the the surface lp goes to our east and the ull to our west, which is what the euro shows..At hr 114 on the euro the LP is over otsego co, surface low is not the problem..Surface temps actually drop during the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 850mb and 925mb low both need to move east if we wanna see some snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not if the the surface lp goes to our east and the ull to our west, which is what the euro shows..At hr 114 on the euro the LP is over otsego co, surface low is not the problem..Surface temps actually drop during the event.. Agree, it's actually a good ice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Agree, it's actually a good ice setup. Any analogs to pull? ROC had 2 major ice storms (March 3, 1991 & April 4, 2003) and the ana frontal/wave big snow event on March 4, 1998. Would be interesting to see the potential similarities. Optimally, one could compare the surface, mid, and upper air features as well as existing teleconnector states at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12Z GFS is coming in warmer through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: 12Z GFS is coming in warmer through 84. This event will be a nail-biter until the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yup, still nice for wny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Western NY pulls out a decent snowfall while here in CNY we’re scraping ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Max temps during precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 GFS comes a little West, GEM stays about the same, maybe a little East? Anyone have UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Man....I’m telling ya. This is gonna be hard to watch. Literally through the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Knock, knock, knocking. Can you hear me Detroit? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 So the Canadian snowmap shows very little here and I’m trying to figure out why lol Must be a warm layer some where.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 CMC pushes a warm layer north at 700 mb between 6Z and 12Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yup, that and critical thicknesses which can be overcome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 So, yea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 UKIE. Anyone have it farther out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like Pitt through west central NY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 We just aren’t in a great spot for synoptic systems lol In 3 years of living here we have yet to cash in on these type of events. Most storms seems to cut west of the apps or off the coast, not much in between..I much rather take my chances at a coastal storm with some blocking, at least we could cash in on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Ice storm all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ice storm all over it Ugh. I hate that ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ugh. I hate that ****. Don’t worry man, by tomorrow’s runs both you and I will be looking at plain rain as both lows cut west of the Apps and into S. Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 High res ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 This is why you never want to be in the bullseye 100 hours out. 60 hours and in your good. Definitely going to be close so we’ll see but I think Detroit to just north of Toronto jackpot. We primarily mix and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Don’t worry man, by tomorrow’s runs both you and I will be looking at plain rain as both lows cut west of the Apps and into S. Ontario. Give me that over an inch and a half of freezing rain any day. The UK maps look pretty scary for far western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: This is why you never want to be in the bullseye 100 hours out. 60 hours and in your good. Definitely going to be close so we’ll see but I think Detroit to just north of Toronto jackpot. We primarily mix and rain. I honestly believe with A) a mostly frozen lake Erie, a healthy snow pack (yes it will take a hit) and C) overall cold air very nearby, that rain will be the least possible outcome for most of WNY. More likely is freezing rain and sleet to snow or quick changeover to snow with heavy accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, coh said: Give me that over an inch and a half of freezing rain any day. The UK maps look pretty scary for far western NY. Why do you want an ice storm? Lol. If some of those solutions verified we’d be talking wide spread devistation with over 1” of ice. Give me a foot of snow or give me some tropical downpours. Sure it’s cool to look at but when your without power for 5 days and have to foot a bill to clean up trees on your property or spend days out with a chainsaw I think I’ll pass lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Why do you want an ice storm? Lol. If some of those solutions verified we’d be talking wide spread devistation with over 1” of ice. Give me a foot of snow or give me some tropical downpours. Sure it’s cool to look at but when your without power for 5 days and have to foot a bill to clean up trees on your property or spend days out with a chainsaw I think I’ll pass lol. Um, you misread my comment completely. I meant give me a far enough west track to give us rain, NOT an inch and a half of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Why do you want an ice storm? Lol. If some of those solutions verified we’d be talking wide spread devistation with over 1” of ice. Give me a foot of snow or give me some tropical downpours. Sure it’s cool to look at but when your without power for 5 days and have to foot a bill to clean up trees on your property or spend days out with a chainsaw I think I’ll pass lol. I think you misread his sentence. He said give me rain OVER an inch and half of freezing rain anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, coh said: Um, you misread my comment completely. I meant give me a far enough west track to give us rain, NOT an inch and a half of ice. Yup: "Give me that (meaning rain) over an inch and a half of freezing rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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