BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 This type of track is probably the best to get maximum synoptic totals in Upstate. 30 hours of Mod to Heavy Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Squeeze play.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Squeeze play.. Incredible stuff. That high to the East prevents this from being a Boston special. I'm almost ready to narrow this from Detroit to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 That's a nice SW flow LES event on Tues/Weds next week too on GFS and GEM if lake isn't too frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 UK goes from eastern KY to Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yea UK and Canadian shifted a little west, still a lot to iron out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yea UK and Canadian shifted a little west, still a lot to iron out.. With how narrow that heavy snow band is going to be I'd think you would want to be pretty close to that low pressure to get maximum snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro appears to maintain a single LP as it moves from southern Indiana to Central and W Maine. Likely all snow for Buf. Rain for Syracuse and a mix inbetween. But I got the free map. I’d love to see snowfall output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Kbuf There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix would last much longer Friday night into Saturday. QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a common solution. 6z Gfs for your viewing pleasure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 For the GFS to virtually have this for, 20 runs in a row, it'd be a shame for it to lose the event now but it could happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 00Z EURO is Rain for most but a little snow may fall out West when all is said and done. The model can't seem to put two consecutive runs together, what a shame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Gfs I gotta say never seen such consistency. Getting to crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6z GEFS show western track on a third to half of members. Despite operational consistency (which is nuts) this is still close. The NYC boards are dreaming if they think this ends up east. I think we are narrawed down to someone near us getting it. Southern Ontario to Syr/ Utica. Still bullish but leaning more towards extreme WNY/ S Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro is pretty far west, hits central Michigan the hardest. Another Euro vs GFS battle, always go with the Euro, even though it's been changing so much last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is pretty far west, hits central Michigan the hardest. Another Euro vs GFS battle, always go with the Euro, even though it's been changing so much last few runs. Just a gut feeling but I think the heaviest snow falls near Detroit and we end up mostly rain. Think we start seeing west trends on the GFS starting today at 12z. I think we’ll see a bigger shift tonight at 00z and by 12z tomorrow we’re all gonna be bumming while the Detroit weenies are praising the snow gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Just a gut feeling but I think the heaviest snow falls near Detroit and we end up mostly rain. Think we start seeing west trends on the GFS starting today at 12z. I think we’ll see a bigger shift tonight at 00z and by 12z tomorrow we’re all gonna be bumming while the Detroit weenies are praising the snow gods. I guess we will see today and tomorrow what the trends will be. GFS has been pretty consistent, Euro not so much. Even the NAM at hour 84 is not its typical NW self. Pretty odd. Like we all said yesterday tomorrow nights run will give us a much better picture. Buf NWS has 36-48 hours to get a better idea on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 EPS tracks it from Central/Eastern Kentucky to north of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS tracks it from Central/Eastern Kentucky to north of Boston That would be inline with GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 KBUFs thoughts: There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track. Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix would last much longer Friday night into Saturday. QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a common solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That would be inline with GFS? It would seem that way but the majority of ENS snowfall maps are well west of that average track. Be interesting to see if Euro is consistent at 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Cranky wx guy likes GFS solution. Throws Euro out. Not sure if he’s right but I love that hes on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 A lot of the euros precipitation was with temps in the 20s, so not plain rain which is even worse, to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: A lot of the euros precipitation was with temps in the 20s, so not plain rain which is even worse, to me lol How much ice/snow for upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The GEFS are tight. But the Euro/UK/GEM are all west of the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Last image of NAM, similar to GFS. NAM in long range is usually NW biased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: That would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: That would suck. Don’t buy the ice. This isn’t a setup for big ice. Models always overdo it. It’s a rain or snow thing. Maybe some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Don’t buy the ice. This isn’t a setup for big ice. Models always overdo it. It’s a rain or snow thing. Maybe some sleet. If it's anything like the 1998 event, the transition to snow will be quick. However, the BUF AFD did talk about cold air undercutting the warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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