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Kbuf 

 
There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of
the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western
flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have
been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking
up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown
more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther
west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble
members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east
solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track

 

Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a
transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday
night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF
scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft
initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the
transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of
sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in
the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix
would last much longer Friday night into Saturday.

QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong
dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes
place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If
the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice
amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday
may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff
from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm
temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night
or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the
sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be
another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a
common solution.

 

6z Gfs for your viewing pleasure..

FE91980B-D4E3-43BE-ADCA-CA4EFB45B0E5.jpeg

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6z GEFS  show western track on a third to half of members. Despite operational consistency (which is nuts) this is still close. The NYC boards are dreaming if they think this ends up east. 

I think we are narrawed down to someone near us getting it. Southern Ontario to Syr/ Utica. Still bullish but leaning more towards extreme WNY/ S Ontario. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Euro is pretty far west, hits central Michigan the hardest. Another Euro vs GFS battle, always go with the Euro, even though it's been changing so much last few runs. 

Just a gut feeling but I think the heaviest snow falls near Detroit and we end up mostly rain. Think we start seeing west trends on the GFS starting today at 12z. I think we’ll see a bigger shift tonight at 00z and by 12z tomorrow we’re all gonna be bumming while the Detroit weenies are praising the snow gods. 

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Just a gut feeling but I think the heaviest snow falls near Detroit and we end up mostly rain. Think we start seeing west trends on the GFS starting today at 12z. I think we’ll see a bigger shift tonight at 00z and by 12z tomorrow we’re all gonna be bumming while the Detroit weenies are praising the snow gods. 

I guess we will see today and tomorrow what the trends will be. GFS has been pretty consistent, Euro not so much. Even the NAM at hour 84 is not its typical NW self. Pretty odd. Like we all said yesterday tomorrow nights run will give us a much better picture. Buf NWS has 36-48 hours to get a better idea on track. 

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KBUFs thoughts:

There is still a good deal of uncertainty with the exact track of
the surface low, and how quickly cold air arrives on its western
flank later Friday through Saturday. The GFS and Canadian GEM have
been very consistent since yesterday with the surface low tracking
up the Appalachians to southern New England. The ECMWF has shown
more variability, with the latest 00Z iteration showing a farther
west track from western PA to central NY. GEFS and GEM ensemble
members show fairly tight clustering around the farther east
solutions, supporting the operational GFS and GEM track.
Precip will start as rain everywhere Friday morning, with a
transition to snow taking place from northwest to southeast Friday
night in the GFS and GEM scenarios, or Saturday in the ECMWF
scenario. The low level cold air will likely undercut warm air aloft
initially in a differential temperature advection pattern, so the
transition from rain to snow may be a messy one with a period of
sleet and freezing rain. This transition would be fairly quick in
the GFS and GEM scenarios, but if the ECMWF verifies the icy mix
would last much longer Friday night into Saturday.

QPF will likely be significant with this system given the strong
dynamics and deep moisture. If an early transition to snow takes
place, accumulations may be significant across much of the area. If
the ECMWF solution verifies, snow amounts would be lower but ice
amounts could be much higher. Rain at the onset of the system Friday
may increase the risk of ice jam flooding, with increasing runoff
from snowmelt and rain combined with several days of warm
temperatures allowing river ice to break up by late Thursday night
or Friday. Given the complexity of the pattern evolution and the
sensitivity of precip type to the exact low track, it will likely be
another 36-48 hours before model guidance begins to converge on a
common solution.
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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Don’t buy the ice. This isn’t a setup for big ice. Models always overdo it. It’s a rain or snow thing. Maybe some sleet. 

If it's anything like the 1998 event, the transition to snow will be quick. However, the BUF AFD did talk about cold air undercutting the warm.

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