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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

12 EPS
ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_6.png

What shocks me, ok not really, is the buffalo AFD AT 3PM which is the latest update still mentions low confidence in the weekend forecast, says gefs, GFS operational and the cmc show a significant snowstorm and the 00z euro takes the low west...the annoying thing is that's lazy forecasting because as of that writing the 12z euro was clearly out and shifted east to all the ensembles, including its own eps!!! I guess they'll catch on soon enough

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10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its basically impossible to integrate the 12 EPS into the 4pm forecast or the afd.  

 It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. 

But maybe they dissect more than I know. 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. 

But maybe they dissect more than I know. 

They probably figure there's time to discuss further and also time for the operational models to shift. Although I would've liked to see the EC data integrated into this AFD, it's not too important on Monday (for a potential storm on Sat.).

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22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

 It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. 

But maybe they dissect more than I know. 

Sometimes they don't update the long range disco in the afternoon.  Its not really a big deal.  There's no definites either way.  I suppose u could discuss the output in the disco but the forecast itself is being worked on well before it comes out.  

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46 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Regarding this setup...it reminds me of a big rain-to-snow storm in ROC back in, I think  Feb of 1998 or 99. 24" in the city (with another 18" a couple days later). Quite remarkable at the time.

Far and away the best weather of my life. 42” of real snow in 3 Days. It was unbelievable. National news stuff. 

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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS have a plethora of outcomes. Like others have stated, won't have a good idea until the energy is on coast. Weds nights runs will give us a much clearer picture. 

f102.gif

Some of these are timing differences. I feel confident some of us cash in on a snowstorm. Is it extreme WNY and Ontario or NE PA and CNY is my question.

Remarkable agreement in the models. One thing that worries me is how almost every EC storm has trended west. Of course this is a different kind of storm that we haven’t seen this year. Next to EC retrogrades this would be my favorite set up. I’ve seen them ruined by a west track. Youngstown has some kinda magnetic pull.

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Not much difference than the GFS for the same time frame. Perhaps a bit slower but at this time, it really doesn't matter as its gonna change many more times either for the better or for the worse. I'll laugh my azz off if this ends up at the Benchmark, lol, but I doubt it. I've seen crazier things happen but it just doesn't seem possible with this set-up. What I reallyt wish is for something like this to come around right after our 2 week thaw that looks probable, but definitely not certain.

500hvv.conus.png

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