Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 12 EPS What shocks me, ok not really, is the buffalo AFD AT 3PM which is the latest update still mentions low confidence in the weekend forecast, says gefs, GFS operational and the cmc show a significant snowstorm and the 00z euro takes the low west...the annoying thing is that's lazy forecasting because as of that writing the 12z euro was clearly out and shifted east to all the ensembles, including its own eps!!! I guess they'll catch on soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Its basically impossible to integrate the 12 EPS into the 4pm forecast or the afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its basically impossible to integrate the 12 EPS into the 4pm forecast or the afd. It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. But maybe they dissect more than I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. But maybe they dissect more than I know. They probably figure there's time to discuss further and also time for the operational models to shift. Although I would've liked to see the EC data integrated into this AFD, it's not too important on Monday (for a potential storm on Sat.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Regarding this setup...it reminds me of a big rain-to-snow storm in ROC back in, I think Feb of 1998 or 99. 24" in the city (with another 18" a couple days later). Quite remarkable at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It takes one minute to look and see the overall trend. Euro OP and half the EPS came more in line with the other models. Took me less than a minute to know this. But maybe they dissect more than I know. Sometimes they don't update the long range disco in the afternoon. Its not really a big deal. There's no definites either way. I suppose u could discuss the output in the disco but the forecast itself is being worked on well before it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 By the time all is said and done, we'll be saying congrats to New England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Genesee valley crush job on the 18z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 It's not too often that a system rides the Apps as it travels up either side so I'd pick the West side, then a transfer to the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 46 minutes ago, vortmax said: Regarding this setup...it reminds me of a big rain-to-snow storm in ROC back in, I think Feb of 1998 or 99. 24" in the city (with another 18" a couple days later). Quite remarkable at the time. Far and away the best weather of my life. 42” of real snow in 3 Days. It was unbelievable. National news stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Looking at 1-2 feet. It really looks identical to that March 98 deal. That one was 24” with 3-4”/ hr rates. Shut the city down. This must be the 12th consistent run. Lock it in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Whats up with the Euro? It never used to have such wicked swings inside 5 days of an event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 18z German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 58 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 18z German You know things are serious when the German comes out... Although I do remember the German doing the best on that big storm we had last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Anyone got the Aussie model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Few select cities on the Gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Few select cities on the Gfs.. These charts are great, paid sub? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 They predict the warmup to do a number on the lake erie ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yea, weatherbell..Weather US may have some free images available, not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 The GEFS have a plethora of outcomes. Like others have stated, won't have a good idea until the energy is on coast. Weds nights runs will give us a much clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS have a plethora of outcomes. Like others have stated, won't have a good idea until the energy is on coast. Weds nights runs will give us a much clearer picture. Some of these are timing differences. I feel confident some of us cash in on a snowstorm. Is it extreme WNY and Ontario or NE PA and CNY is my question. Remarkable agreement in the models. One thing that worries me is how almost every EC storm has trended west. Of course this is a different kind of storm that we haven’t seen this year. Next to EC retrogrades this would be my favorite set up. I’ve seen them ruined by a west track. Youngstown has some kinda magnetic pull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 NAM showing stronger amplification which would likely result in a West track (think Detroit). Of course, this is not the Nam’s best period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Not much difference than the GFS for the same time frame. Perhaps a bit slower but at this time, it really doesn't matter as its gonna change many more times either for the better or for the worse. I'll laugh my azz off if this ends up at the Benchmark, lol, but I doubt it. I've seen crazier things happen but it just doesn't seem possible with this set-up. What I reallyt wish is for something like this to come around right after our 2 week thaw that looks probable, but definitely not certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Another run further East. GEM is a bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 2" of QPF most being in wintry form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It’s not even borderline on the Gfs, solidly cold enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Keeps trending East, interesting! Soon enough we'll be congratulating KBOX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The trending can stop at any time now but for some reason I don't think its quite done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It’s not even borderline on the Gfs, solidly cold enough.. Insane, I've never seen clown maps like this for synoptic in WNY. Most I've seen is like 20". In long range I've seen it, but not 80 hours from start of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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