CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 GFS looks to be active synoptically over the next 2 weeks. Not all of it is snow but it should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Always makes me nervous when the models are so insistent on such a perfect storm track so far out. How often does it actually work out...in any case, as long as it turns out to be snow and not ice, bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Big hit on GEM I’ll take that especially since it won’t be fake snow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah anywhere from Chicago to Albany are still in game. Don't think east coast has a chance. Clearly, you haven't spent enough time perusing coastal forums, where all storms are destined to end up riding near the Benchmark. Somehow though, they seem to end up right half the damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 This storm starts on Friday, so not much time left. Should have a much better handle by Weds night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This storm starts on Friday, so not much time left. Should have a much better handle by Weds night. 96 hours is still a ton of time lol. Obviously we’re going to see something from this storm but it could be rain, ice, snow or we could be smoking cirrus while Boston racks up another 1 foot plus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 All things considered, I'd rather be on the western edge of the heavy snow axis right now. We all know the models generally tend to correct west in the late stages... and if there ever a setup for it this would be as good as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Rule # 1 of storm tracking is not to be on the bullseye this far out with that being said factor in the 50 mile NW Jog and i think we all see rain from this event. Congratz YYZ!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: I’m surprised nobody is posting about our current weather. Moderate to heavy snow at times, 2” down in last 2 hours... 3.2" at my house, not bad at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Rule # 1 of storm tracking is not to be on the bullseye this far out with that being said factor in the 50 mile NW Jog and i think we all see rain from this event. Congratz YYZ!! The trend is actually SE not NW with this it seems so far. UKMET is weak and progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Let’s see where the Euro comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 54 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This storm starts on Friday, so not much time left. Should have a much better handle by Weds night. When the pieces of energy hit the west coast grid is usually when models zero in. 12z Wed. will probably be a good time, even for the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Should be a big hit on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Did the Euro Just cave to the GFS? Came in much colder and further east. Don’t know the sensible weather implications from the maps I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Euro came in east. Has a double barrel look to it with primary low starting west of the spine and then transferring to a secondary near the Delmarva area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The consistency on GFS is remarkable!!!! I can’t remember seeing this many runs in a row with no changes. Unbelievable. EURO just caved BTW. It would be one of the American models biggest coups for this region. EURO shows 999 LP over WVa. That’s a perfect location for us. Hope it doesn’t transfer too quickly. Im still betting big on this one. A track like the GFS and Canadian would bury BUF and ROC. We’re talking well over a foot. Maybe 2. Real snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should be a big hit on Euro. The lake enhancement and snowfall rates in ROC would be off the charts. This is a 2 foot set up. Hold on!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Euro snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gfs has been consistant. Usually go with euro but I was not buying it. Watch the gfs go west know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 EPS is very similar to the 00z run for track and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: EPS is very similar to the 00z run for track and evolution. Didn't the Euro go into northern michigan last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Didn't the Euro go into northern michigan last night? The EPS is the euro ensemble. The op run has shifted eastward the past two runs toward the ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12z EC and EPS: Much further east for EC (vs. 00z), but similar for EPS (vs. 00z) - Seems the operational model is starting to agree with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Courtesy of R Maue on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Theres a pretty classic pna spike and nao rise proceeding the storm. Cips threat guidance is decent. It does have a pretty classic look on how wny has gotten good ones In the past. Shortwave digs into Texas and the northern gulf and runs it strong confluent pos nao flow over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Theres a pretty classic pna spike and nao rise proceeding the storm. Cips threat guidance is decent. It does have a pretty classic look on how wny has gotten good ones In the past. Shortwave digs into Texas and the northern gulf and runs it strong confluent pos nao flow over Quebec. This is the kind of data that, for me, makes this threat more plausible - the larger picture so to speak. Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The EPS is the euro ensemble. The op run has shifted eastward the past two runs toward the ensemble Yeah I know I figured the EPS were at least close to the OP from last night, haven't checked them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 12 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The 00z EPS and 00z EC were quite different last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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