OSUmetstud Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nice ensemble signal for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6z Gfs is way colder then 0z, looks like a center jump? Right before making it into cny lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 That’s exactly what it is but still Better then rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I’m surprised nobody is posting about our current weather. Moderate to heavy snow at times, 2” down in last 2 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I’m surprised nobody is posting about our current weather. Moderate to heavy snow at times, 2” down in last 2 hours... I’m glad to hear that it’s snowing heavily to my west. Currently it’s snowing lightly here although flake size is increasing. I got about a half an inch overnight then had a couple hour break where the snow ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not a good setup for bulk of CNY I don't think on weekend storm. Antecedent airmass blows with highs in 40s to near 50 down around here and even the eastern outlier gfs is questionable as we would still be fighting warm air and dry slotting issues with track nearly right over BGM. This looks more like a far WNY and NNY event if there is a wintry synoptic side to be had at all. With models showing negative tilt near the Mississippi Delta region 'm betting on a Euro type solution with a track west of the spine. Need that negative tilt to happen closer to Atlanta area to up our chances that the front can setup shop further S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Haha I wish I could say light snow, maybe a flurry or two, weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Not a good setup for bulk of CNY I don't think on weekend storm. Antecedent airmass blows with highs in 40s to near 50 down around here and even the eastern outlier gfs is questionable as we would still be fighting warm air and dry slotting issues with track nearly right over BGM. This looks more like a far WNY and NNY event if there is a wintry synoptic side to be had at all. With models showing negative tilt near the Mississippi Delta region 'm betting on a Euro type solution with a track west of the spine. Need that negative tilt to happen closer to Atlanta area to up our chances that the front can setup shop further S/E. I agree. But EPS were way southeast. It had it over Atlanta. At this range always go with the ENS. I am growing increasing confident that this is a biggie for someone very close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Not that the GFS is correct, but wow what a would-be thermal gradient between KBUF and KBGM. SN+/15 degrees vs. RA+/45 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I agree. But EPS were way southeast. It had it over Atlanta. At this range always go with the ENS. I am growing increasing confident that this is a biggie for someone very close to us. Just saw that. That is encouraging. Still not feeling too confident for CNY yet. WNY much better chance to cash in on this setup IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Not that the GFS is correct, but wow what a would-be thermal gradient between KBUF and KBGM. SN+/15 degrees vs. RA+/45 degrees. That negative tilt is just incredible. Would have the highest snowfall rates we would ever see from a synoptic system in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That negative tilt is just incredible. Would have the highest snowfall rates we would ever see from a synoptic system in WNY. We’d be talking 2-3”/hr rates over all of WNY with +TSSN ... actually sucks being in the bullseye 100 hours out as it’s likley going to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: We’d be talking 2-3”/hr rates over all of WNY with +TSSN ... actually sucks being in the bullseye 100 hours out as it’s likley going to change... Yeah anywhere from Chicago to Albany are still in game. Don't think east coast has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Snow is coming down at a pretty good rate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Haha I wish I could say light snow, maybe a flurry or two, weird lol Atmosphere is quite dry...took an hour or 2 of those echos to actually see precip on the ground in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 12Z GFS not good at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Another big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Over 2-2.5" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 12Z GFS not good at all! Why is it not good at all? We’re about 25 miles from a nice IP to heavy snow scenario. What I don’t like is it cuts off precipitation quickly after noon Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Why is it not good at all? We’re about 25 miles from a nice IP to heavy snow scenario. What I don’t like is it cuts off precipitation quickly after noon Saturday. Cause we still have 18 runs left is all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Hope the Euro comes a tick East but no drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Cause we still have 18 runs left is all! Still time to get that low over Amsterdam instead of Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just not feelin this one is all, but good luck to all in WNY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Still time to get that low over Amsterdam instead of Utica. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I'm still tryin to figure out where our 4-7" is coming from today, seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Always got the Canadian which continues to trend colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said: We’d be talking 2-3”/hr rates over all of WNY with +TSSN ... actually sucks being in the bullseye 100 hours out as it’s likley going to change... I believe about 5 or 6 years ago we had a similar storm that brought almost immediate SN+ with the onset of precip and we got hammered with about 15" in a short 6 to 8 your period at KBUF...I wish I could remember the details of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 30 degrees! I’m going to put my shorts on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The snow has let up a lot. I measured about 3/4 of an inch since 9:30 so almost 1 1/2 since it started last night. Looks like one more batch out by Buffalo to move through but we’re not going to make it to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Big hit on GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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