tim123 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 With name like polar bear figured you' like thar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Reasonable assumption, but I don't have a thick layer of blubber to insulate me nor do the pipes in my house for days on end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 EPS, it's definitely an interesting storm. It will hit somewhere from Chicago to Boston, that's about all we have so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro OP really digs and would cut up to near Detroit. It is tough to get an inbetween track. Seems they like to go into GL or up EC. Still like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro ensambles looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 After this, energy ejecting from the upper midwest through the Ohio Valley will allow a low level baroclinic zone to advance eastward into the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes coincident with southern stream wave ejection, offering a track for vigorous surface low development through the eastern Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday. This system track would eventually pull the baroclinic zone through the area with colder air sweeping into the region, placing western and north central New York in a favorable region for decent, if not significant snows this weekend. Details still cloudy at this stage, but signals seem to be increasing as medium range model consensus narrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: After this, energy ejecting from the upper midwest through the Ohio Valley will allow a low level baroclinic zone to advance eastward into the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes coincident with southern stream wave ejection, offering a track for vigorous surface low development through the eastern Ohio Valley late Friday into Saturday. This system track would eventually pull the baroclinic zone through the area with colder air sweeping into the region, placing western and north central New York in a favorable region for decent, if not significant snows this weekend. Details still cloudy at this stage, but signals seem to be increasing as medium range model consensus narrows. Promising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Whatever happens lots of precip. Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 First event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First event tomorrow. New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Pretty big torch on EPS for end of month too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Torch for 10 days. Then I think all bets are off as I think second half of winter is brutal cold with stormy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Alright I'm starting to get intrigued for that storm on Friday. Quarter to half inch of freezing rain and 10-20" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nice snowstorm for wny on the Gfs, LP goes through cny just like today’s 12z Canadian.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Whereever this storm hits will have an incredible amount of moisture with it. It has some great potential. I would take an icestorm over a snowstorm. But this icestorm has the potential to be dangerous. That amount of precip with that high to the north. One of the craziest setups Ive seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gfs now showing 5”-6” here for tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Low goes northern PA to eastern Ny, makes me wonder how warm it will be especially towards the surface..Maybe the ull is cutting to our west, haven’t looked into it.. you would think a LP passing to the south and east that would be mostly frozen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Low goes northern PA to eastern Ny, makes me wonder how warm it will be especially towards the surface..Maybe the ull is cutting to our west, haven’t looked into it.. you would think a LP passing to the south and east that would be mostly frozen.. It’s hard to predict an ice storm out that many days. Models overdo it. I mean, those parameters are pretty tough to meet. Rare. Thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s hard to predict an ice storm out that many days. Models overdo it. I mean, those parameters are pretty tough to meet. Rare. Thankfully. I’m a cold winter person, but I’d take a winter long torch over a single severe ice storm. The risks to life and the misery and expense of a big ice storm leaving many people with no heat or electricity is not nearly worth satisfying an extreme weather fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Ggem is rain to snow and back to rain imby, I’ll take my chances with that low placement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Here’s the culprit, need the 850mb low farther east or we will have to settle for ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I cant believe how consistent the globals have been with this event, interesting, now we just need the EURO fo follow suit, just to raise confidence levels further. I know its there but it heads right over the area flooding the area with just enough warmth for a cold rain, then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Thank God its still 5 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just our luck to get a perfect surface track and the 850 mb low goes west and floods the upper levels with warmth..Plenty of time for change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I definitely don't think we're getting anything but 1-2" for tomorrow. I just don't like the set-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Yeah. Tomorrow’s set up is ****. But the weekend... This is by far the best weather forum on the web. The technical breakdown is so much better than the other sites. That 850 is tough. But like freak said, we got 5 days. The HP to the west looks pretty good. Plus, stuffs been progressive. I gotta think, if that LP traverses the track suggested by GEM or GFS, we’d be good west of I-81. But dang, I wish the euro would give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Gfs is 1/2” LE here tomorrow so we’ll see lol Hrrr has mostly been between 0.3”-0.4”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is 1/2” LE here tomorrow so we’ll see lol Hrrr has mostly been between 0.3”-0.4”.. The Genesee Valley downslope will kill any appreciable snow near KROC. I’m glad nobody is deceived this time. The tug ends up with another foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Euro still consistent on a track to our west, refuses to budge, not a good sign lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Latest hrrr for today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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