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Upstate/Eastern New York


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After this, energy ejecting from the upper midwest through the
Ohio Valley will allow a low level baroclinic zone to advance
eastward into the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes coincident
with southern stream wave ejection, offering a track for
vigorous surface low development through the eastern Ohio
Valley late Friday into Saturday. This system track would
eventually pull the baroclinic zone through the area with colder
air sweeping into the region, placing western and north central
New York in a favorable region for decent, if not significant
snows this weekend. Details still cloudy at this stage, but
signals seem to be increasing as medium range model consensus
narrows.
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59 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

After this, energy ejecting from the upper midwest through the
Ohio Valley will allow a low level baroclinic zone to advance
eastward into the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes coincident
with southern stream wave ejection, offering a track for
vigorous surface low development through the eastern Ohio
Valley late Friday into Saturday. This system track would
eventually pull the baroclinic zone through the area with colder
air sweeping into the region, placing western and north central
New York in a favorable region for decent, if not significant
snows this weekend. Details still cloudy at this stage, but
signals seem to be increasing as medium range model consensus
narrows.

Promising...

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10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Low goes northern PA to eastern Ny, makes me wonder how warm it will be especially towards the surface..Maybe the ull is cutting to our west, haven’t looked into it..

you would think a LP passing to the south and east that would be mostly frozen..

It’s hard to predict an ice storm out that many days. Models overdo it. I mean, those parameters are pretty tough to meet. Rare. Thankfully. 

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45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s hard to predict an ice storm out that many days. Models overdo it. I mean, those parameters are pretty tough to meet. Rare. Thankfully. 

I’m a cold winter person, but I’d take a winter long torch over a single severe ice storm. The risks to life and the misery and expense of a big ice storm leaving many people with no heat or electricity is not nearly worth satisfying an extreme weather fetish.

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I cant believe how consistent the globals have been with this event, interesting, now we just need the EURO fo follow suit, just to raise confidence levels further.  I know its there but it heads right over the area flooding the area with just enough warmth for a cold rain, then snow.

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Yeah. Tomorrow’s set up is ****. But the weekend... 

This is by far the best weather forum on the web. The technical breakdown is so much better than the other sites. 

That 850 is tough. But like freak said, we got 5 days. The HP to the west looks pretty good. Plus, stuffs been progressive. 

I gotta think, if that LP traverses the  track suggested by GEM or GFS, we’d be good west of I-81. But dang, I wish the euro would give. 

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