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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

No, I know it definitely isn't better, but I don't think there's much of a difference lets say, about 10-15 miles to you North than to your NE, but then again I don't know specific averages either so you'd know better as you've probably done extensive research, lol!  We didn't, as I would of never bought a house where we did, as it's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of where the band falls apart cause it loses about 30 miles of fetch on either a W or a WNWerly wind flow. NW just plain sucks unless there's a good connection to GB and even then we get missed either to my SW or my NE so either way the band sets up it sucks for me!

If you're not content with 200" a year, you'll never be content. 

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I know most local news outlets in my area had Pulaski being the Jackpot this evening through the first half of the night but I don't think thats gonna happen.  This can be a perfect case study as to how difficult it actually is to forecast the placement of LES bands even for sophisticated models. Nowcasting is the only way to forecast LES imo, but what good would nowcasting be for someone who needs a forecast a day in advance. So hard to do and I don't think there are enough bouys in Lake Ontario as that would definitely help. OSU bank in the day would release their own weather balloons, but no more as it became increasingly more expensive as yrs went buy.

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I'm actually starting to get a bit more excited for my area, but it may be premature, as the bands are setting up right after the end of the wind shift into the WNW, as they don't really appear NW yet, as they shouldn't be I guess.  There's no time being wasted as it usually takes at least a few hrs for things to get going, but not this time around.  There's also a GB connection already established so snow may be plentiful for many on this board tonight.

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5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Excitement went straight out the window after looking at the sounding from Pivotal. Horrible sounding so I wont go into it but suffice to say, I'll be lucky to see a dusting to an 1".

BGM has a nuisance inch or so here. Looks like next synoptic system is the quasi cutter next Monday or so. Plenty of time for models to figure that one out.

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I already told my wife we're outta here in a few yrs so start thinking of a spot at least 15 miles to our North! I can bear a couple of more pathetic years of nickel and diming our way to avg, as this is mostly how KSYR gets to avg, unless one anomalous yr comes around where the dominant storm track favors CNY, which rarely happens ever as we're simply in a bad spot for synoptic events, plain and simple.

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Yup onto the next one lol Hrrr and 3k nam show nothing here for good reason, band will collapse soon..

 

A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 3 inches per hour will continue to affect Oswego county
through 6 pm. This band of lake effect snow will then slowly shift
south into northern Cayuga and Wayne county through the late
evening hours where it will remain most of the night

4DA727DC-B988-441E-87E8-6B9B5C04754F.jpeg

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Yeah KBGM is definitely an office that doesn't like putting up advisories unless its absolutely warranted, which is the way it should be. They can also do it a little bit too much, as an advisory was definitely needed the other night, or at least a SWS should have been issued, when we got 4.5" in a 1.5 hrs the other night, but then again was it really needed up here in Northern Onondaga as I consider myself N-Onondaga and not S-Oswego since it wasn't gonna last too long, probably not.

I'll be satisfied with my 1" :axe:!

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22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I already told my wife we're outta here in a few yrs so start thinking of a spot at least 15 miles to our North! I can bear a couple of more pathetic years of nickel and diming our way to avg, as this is mostly how KSYR gets to avg, unless one anomalous yr comes around where the dominant storm track favors CNY, which rarely happens ever as we're simply in a bad spot for synoptic events, plain and simple.

Yeah if I relo around here, it will be up in that triangle wolfie sketched out earlier. Parish area not bad but I'd want to be located near I-81, so that commute into Syracuse wouldn't be outrageous.

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As a deep longwave trough becomes re-established over eastern Canada
Thursday and Friday...an increasingly low sheared northwest flow
within strong cold advection will be found over our region. Combine
this with fairly deep synoptic moisture and you will have the
potential for substantial snows southeast of the lakes...especially
in the lee of Lake Ontario. Headlines for the lake snows will be
likely as the time frame nears. There will also be some widespread
but generally light synoptic snow over the remainder of the region
on Friday as an intensely cold but relatively moist airmass will be
in place within an upslope flow. Have raised pops by 10-20 points
for both days. In regards to temperatures...while the mercury will
top out in the teens for Thursday...it will remain below zero for
most sites on Friday. This will especially be the case for the North
Country where max temps will range from -5 to -10f. The airmass
responsible for the glacial cold will feature H85 temps near -30c...
which for our region has a return interval of roughly 10 to 15
years.
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9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah if I relo around here, it will be up in that triangle wolfie sketched out earlier. Parish area not bad but I'd want to be located near I-81, so that commute into Syracuse wouldn't be outrageous.

That's exactly what my wife said, as she works at the Civic Center downtown! From up there, if your right near 81, the commute wouldn't be bad at all, probably 25-35 minutes or so which isn't too bad. Its actually the same as it is now, as she has to ride 481 from rt31, exit 12, to North Syracuse where she jumps on 81, so that stretch of highway would be equivalent to getting on at the Mexico exit to 481, so its actually very close to being the same mileage I would think but I never actually calculated the mileage.

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I know but there may be some activity right on its heels, but I guess we'll see.  Man what a colossal bust for KBUF unless they still expect the band to form up there!  Don't they get sick of straight busting or do they not care? Clearly Pulaski isn't jackpotting this time. I'd be pissed if I was up there right now, lol.

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