BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: No, I know it definitely isn't better, but I don't think there's much of a difference lets say, about 10-15 miles to you North than to your NE, but then again I don't know specific averages either so you'd know better as you've probably done extensive research, lol! We didn't, as I would of never bought a house where we did, as it's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of where the band falls apart cause it loses about 30 miles of fetch on either a W or a WNWerly wind flow. NW just plain sucks unless there's a good connection to GB and even then we get missed either to my SW or my NE so either way the band sets up it sucks for me! If you're not content with 200" a year, you'll never be content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 That band is kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Been snowing lightly since about 3:45pm. Band of snow just not pushing far enough inland. Be lucky to see an inch of something doesn’t change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, swva said: Been snowing lightly since about 3:45pm. Band of snow just not pushing far enough inland. Be lucky to see an inch of something doesn’t change. Did KBUF have you getting anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 This band is gonna fly right through the area, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Did KBUF have you getting anything? Originally 3-4” according to their map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Our 1-2 hrs of snow has started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I know most local news outlets in my area had Pulaski being the Jackpot this evening through the first half of the night but I don't think thats gonna happen. This can be a perfect case study as to how difficult it actually is to forecast the placement of LES bands even for sophisticated models. Nowcasting is the only way to forecast LES imo, but what good would nowcasting be for someone who needs a forecast a day in advance. So hard to do and I don't think there are enough bouys in Lake Ontario as that would definitely help. OSU bank in the day would release their own weather balloons, but no more as it became increasingly more expensive as yrs went buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I'm actually starting to get a bit more excited for my area, but it may be premature, as the bands are setting up right after the end of the wind shift into the WNW, as they don't really appear NW yet, as they shouldn't be I guess. There's no time being wasted as it usually takes at least a few hrs for things to get going, but not this time around. There's also a GB connection already established so snow may be plentiful for many on this board tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Buffalo talking up lake snow end of week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Liking the trajectory off GB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Excitement went straight out the window after looking at the sounding from Pivotal. Horrible sounding so I wont go into it but suffice to say, I'll be lucky to see a dusting to an 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Excitement went straight out the window after looking at the sounding from Pivotal. Horrible sounding so I wont go into it but suffice to say, I'll be lucky to see a dusting to an 1". BGM has a nuisance inch or so here. Looks like next synoptic system is the quasi cutter next Monday or so. Plenty of time for models to figure that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I already told my wife we're outta here in a few yrs so start thinking of a spot at least 15 miles to our North! I can bear a couple of more pathetic years of nickel and diming our way to avg, as this is mostly how KSYR gets to avg, unless one anomalous yr comes around where the dominant storm track favors CNY, which rarely happens ever as we're simply in a bad spot for synoptic events, plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yup onto the next one lol Hrrr and 3k nam show nothing here for good reason, band will collapse soon.. A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will continue to affect Oswego county through 6 pm. This band of lake effect snow will then slowly shift south into northern Cayuga and Wayne county through the late evening hours where it will remain most of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yeah KBGM is definitely an office that doesn't like putting up advisories unless its absolutely warranted, which is the way it should be. They can also do it a little bit too much, as an advisory was definitely needed the other night, or at least a SWS should have been issued, when we got 4.5" in a 1.5 hrs the other night, but then again was it really needed up here in Northern Onondaga as I consider myself N-Onondaga and not S-Oswego since it wasn't gonna last too long, probably not. I'll be satisfied with my 1" ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Huron is seeding Erie nicely. Would love to live to the ESE of Huron in Ontario! Some averages for some select cities in around that area of Ontario, must be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I already told my wife we're outta here in a few yrs so start thinking of a spot at least 15 miles to our North! I can bear a couple of more pathetic years of nickel and diming our way to avg, as this is mostly how KSYR gets to avg, unless one anomalous yr comes around where the dominant storm track favors CNY, which rarely happens ever as we're simply in a bad spot for synoptic events, plain and simple. Yeah if I relo around here, it will be up in that triangle wolfie sketched out earlier. Parish area not bad but I'd want to be located near I-81, so that commute into Syracuse wouldn't be outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 As a deep longwave trough becomes re-established over eastern Canada Thursday and Friday...an increasingly low sheared northwest flow within strong cold advection will be found over our region. Combine this with fairly deep synoptic moisture and you will have the potential for substantial snows southeast of the lakes...especially in the lee of Lake Ontario. Headlines for the lake snows will be likely as the time frame nears. There will also be some widespread but generally light synoptic snow over the remainder of the region on Friday as an intensely cold but relatively moist airmass will be in place within an upslope flow. Have raised pops by 10-20 points for both days. In regards to temperatures...while the mercury will top out in the teens for Thursday...it will remain below zero for most sites on Friday. This will especially be the case for the North Country where max temps will range from -5 to -10f. The airmass responsible for the glacial cold will feature H85 temps near -30c... which for our region has a return interval of roughly 10 to 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I think you in better shape than where you were wolf, No? I think if you drop that band towards your area then you might get jacked but we'll see soon enough after this initial 'blob" of snow that has developed moves through to the ESE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ripping out right now, let’s see how long it last.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 snowing good in webster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah if I relo around here, it will be up in that triangle wolfie sketched out earlier. Parish area not bad but I'd want to be located near I-81, so that commute into Syracuse wouldn't be outrageous. That's exactly what my wife said, as she works at the Civic Center downtown! From up there, if your right near 81, the commute wouldn't be bad at all, probably 25-35 minutes or so which isn't too bad. Its actually the same as it is now, as she has to ride 481 from rt31, exit 12, to North Syracuse where she jumps on 81, so that stretch of highway would be equivalent to getting on at the Mexico exit to 481, so its actually very close to being the same mileage I would think but I never actually calculated the mileage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Haha same here..My girl works in north Syracuse and it’s actually a few min quicker from a place like parish then it is from Fulton, keeps all options open.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well it looks like I'm definitely gonna be in the thick of it here soon. Hows the flake size Wolf, as that's usually what makes it or breaks it with these arctic air masses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 No complaints lol Nice size flakes but this band isn’t going to last much longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just as I say that, band is starting to fall apart as winds go NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I know but there may be some activity right on its heels, but I guess we'll see. Man what a colossal bust for KBUF unless they still expect the band to form up there! Don't they get sick of straight busting or do they not care? Clearly Pulaski isn't jackpotting this time. I'd be pissed if I was up there right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well I’ve had about 2” and moderate snow falling at the moment. Might get the 3-4” after all. Been snowing about 3.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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