Buffalo Bumble Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Pic from a ski on frozen Chaumont Bay this afternoon. Bay is completely iced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Didn't realize but KBUF is showing top snowfall spots in their summaries now, pretty awesome. Redfield spotter is over 200" on the year as off Jan 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Pretty big warmup on EPS next week. It looks transient though. Weds-Fri look will feature 40s and possibly lows 50s on Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 The upcoming pattern looks so much better for synoptic. No sustained cold coming anytime in the next few weeks. Lots of ups and downs. I can see that changing late Jan/Early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 Another cool feature I found tonight. There is a forecast model for lake erie ice cover. Current Coverage 82.9% and will probably get close to 90% after tonight but forecast outlook after thaw is 70.7%. Let's get that under 50% so we can still get some decent lake effect. Here is the website: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs-ice.php?lake=e&type=F&hr=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 As you guys have already said next Fri-Sun timeframe looks interesting. Possible ice event? This setup has possibilities. Whens the last good icing event? Its been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1” of ZR for ksyr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Majority of models like the same area for Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2018 Author Share Posted January 7, 2018 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1” of ZR for ksyr lol omg lock that in. I want an icing event so bad. 1.3" in finger lakes, would be insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 25 below zero. Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected for most locations, except locally higher amounts up to 10 inches for the Tug Hill. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, now to 7 AM this morning. For the Winter Weather Advisory, 11 PM today to 7 AM Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Be prepared for reduced visibilities and slippery travel at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro is pretty ugly for snow lovers..Actually somehow Oswego county misses the majority of rainfall lol The 1st event is to Far East with mid-heavy rain ksyr on east, 2nd event goes to far west with heavy rain over parts of wny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 06z GFS would be rain over to a HUGE snowstorm for WNY next Friday night/Saturday. Over 1.5” of QPF as snow. Too bad it’s still almost a week away but glad there’s been a consistent signal for some kind of major storm. It seems as of now there’s definitely the potential for significant snow or icing once that front goes by. The details will work themselves out over the next several days but excited we actually have a synoptic storm noteworthy enough to track. See, we don’t need the brutal cold for anything, I’d be happy with 20s or 30s and snow for sure lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 May need to start worrying about my roof lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 My backyard ..Need to clean my dish today, that should be fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: My backyard ..Need to clean my dish today, that should be fun.. Wow! U win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 That’s not all from this storm haha My” source” recorded about 12.5” over the 2 day span..That is s collection of 3”-6” events every other day for the past 3 weeks lol (minus some settling) And it’s obviously been brutally cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 My house and garage roof look the same way, with the warmer temps and rain coming might have to do something about it lol. Finally gonna get out and snowblow around the house today, main part of the driveway has been plowed but gotta do around back and trails for my dog haha. Been nice having a plow guy this year doing the main part of the driveway has saved a lot of time for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: May need to start worrying about my roof lol Yeah get on that once it warms up today. About 12 years ago I woke to the sound of water dripping down our bedroom wall. It ain't fun once that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Kbuf The forecast becomes low confidence for later Friday through Saturday, with numerous run to run differences seen in model guidance over the past few days with the handling of the frontal position and one or more waves of low pressure forecast to move northward along the front. Some model runs, such as the 00Z ECMWF keep the front and low pressure farther west, bringing more rain and warm temperatures through Saturday. Some previous runs of both the ECMWF and GFS have the front and low farther east, which would produce significant snowfall for our region. The 00Z GFS is between these two scenarios, and would likely result in a mixed bag of precipitation Friday night and early Saturday, ending as all snow. Given the complexity of this pattern evolution, it will likely be several more days before model guidance settles on a common solution Following this period of uncertainty, model guidance is in good agreement with the longwave trough becoming re-established across the eastern half of North America. This will bring a return to winter and below normal temperatures, but not nearly as cold as what we have just experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Can’t get a much better track then that, which is probably a bad thing this far out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 It looks like we will go from rain to mixed to a period of heavy snow from Friday afternoon into Saturday if the GFS verifies. The track of this low is almost perfect for CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, LivingstonWx said: Putting up the big maps? Eh Livingston? Lol I love it. That’s a once every 5 year track. It’s hard to get. Would be an absolute crush job for WNY. Pretty much as good a set up as we can get. I too get nervous when we are the bullseye 130 hrs out. But the setup is advertised across models and it’s actually one I’ve seen a few time- wave rides up stalled front...etc. I like it. I’m bullish. Put me down as a yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfss has been showing consistant track for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 The UK has a nice look to it, the Canadian not far off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro says what snowstorm! It’s even further west than 0Z bringing the surface low over western Lake Erie at 12Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Euro says what snowstorm! It’s even further west than 0Z bringing the surface low over western Lake Erie at 12Z Saturday. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Euro says what snowstorm! It’s even further west than 0Z bringing the surface low over western Lake Erie at 12Z Saturday. The 500 level tells all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I usually like the euro but it' been kinda bad in long range latley. Big swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 On 1/6/2018 at 12:55 PM, tim123 said: Cmc and euro have same type scenario. Moving forward Joe bastardi I'd saying last 2 weeks of Jan thaw. Then cold returns longer and stronger for Feb into march Please no....mid teens-20s-30sfine but this below zero to single digits for more than a day crap can stay in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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