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Upstate/Eastern New York


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11 hours ago, tim123 said:

Rochester upgraded to warning. 8 to 14 inches

Lol, Something better change in a hurry because I have about 2 inches total over the past 48 hours and I'm pretty confident these snow grains arent going to amount to much of anything today.  This list that the NWS posted looks reasonable to me but doesn't jive with some of the posts Ive seen from the counties SE of the lake.  I hate to say it, but it's been a virtual non event in regards to snow.....exactly as I expected.

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Wayne County...
   Williamson            10.0   400 AM  1/05  Broadcast Media


**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...Cattaraugus County...
   Little Valley          1.5   745 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer

...Chautauqua County...
   4 ENE Jamestown        4.2   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer

...Erie County...
   5 NNE Amherst          2.3   800 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   ESE Kenmore            2.1   740 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   3 WSW Elma             1.8   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   ESE Clarence Center    1.8   725 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   3 E Williamsville      1.7   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   Buffalo Airport        1.5   654 AM  1/05  ASOS
   3 NE Cheektowaga       1.5   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   ENE East Aurora        1.2   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   3 NNE East Aurora      1.1   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS

...Genesee County...
   1 W Batavia            1.0   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   1 E Le Roy             1.0   800 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer

...Lewis County...
   1 NW Constableville    2.0   600 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   1 E Osceola            2.0   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer
   Port Leyden            1.7   600 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS

...Monroe County...
   Rochester Airport      2.6   654 AM  1/05  ASOS

...Niagara County...
   3 ESE Lockport         1.5   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   1 NNE North Tonawand   1.2   700 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   6 E Niagara Falls      1.1   708 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS

...Orleans County...
   Medina                 3.8   600 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer

...Oswego County...
   8 N Redfield           3.8   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer
   4 SSE Lacona           2.6   600 AM  1/05  CoCoRaHS
   Bennetts Bridge        2.2   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer

...Wyoming County...
   3 W Wyoming            3.0   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer
   3 N Silver Springs     1.1   700 AM  1/05  Co-Op Observer
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1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Don’t know if I’m missing something but from what I see the 06z GFS has us into the mid 40s by Thursday. Honestly after this it’s totally welcome, don’t even care if we lose all of our pack. This cold is just absolutely brutal.  

 

Also obviously it will change cause it’s fantasy land but by end of the run we’re near 60 degrees. Would feel absolutely fantastic. 

You guys are nuts.  The cold always makes a few of you (BuffaloWeather I'm looking in your direction) fold but this is downright blasphemous.  This thaw will be a crusher.  I'd do anything to maintain this awesome pattern indefinitely (and yes, I am fighting ice dams myself....they do suck)

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6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

You guys are nuts.  The cold always makes a few of you (BuffaloWeather I'm looking in your direction) fold but this is downright blasphemous.  This thaw will be a crusher.  I'd do anything to maintain this awesome pattern indefinitely (and yes, I am fighting ice dams myself....they do suck)

Wholeheartedly agreed...

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13 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, lots of snow in the air today but not getting the accumulations the guys in CNY are seeing.  Only exception was a wicked squall that swept through around 5PM - picked up about an inch in less than 30 minutes with that one.  

Funny thing, I said we would be lucky to get 1/2" even if it snowed all night with the flake size, but we had about 2.5" when I left for work this morning. And it's that powdered sugar snow that you kind of need to shovel because it compresses into ice really easily.

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I don't think it's possible but I've seen it before.  Oneida Lake is actually adding a little fuel to the lower ,ost levels of the BL. WIth it being so cold it looks like every bit of moisture helps especially with a non-existent snow growth layer. 

LakeOntario_13.20180105.145220.thumb.jpg.28cd245dd21516afefa845086dd620ca.jpg

Snowfall totals from the Euro the next 60hrs.

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_syracuse_11.thumb.png.a83a8bc5233e30b7cc6896d994cd6fcb.png

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2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't think it's possible but I've seen it before.  Oneida Lake is actually adding a little fuel to the lower ,ost levels of the BL. WIth it being so cold it looks like every bit of moisture helps especially with a non-existent snow growth layer. 

LakeOntario_13.20180105.145220.thumb.jpg.28cd245dd21516afefa845086dd620ca.jpg

Snowfall totals from the euro the next 60hrs.

 

Oneida Lake is completely frozen over so I wonder how much moisture it can add to the atmosphere. 

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I gotta say, it took it a while to catch on but it finally did, as the storm was already in progress. Totals look good but the coup goes to the GGEM! Did, a great job with the cold and the track, better than both the GFS and EURO. The NAM was the first that had the idea of a closer in coastal and in the end it verified so.

 

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Perused the NE thread...quite the squabble over KBOX replay review of " no catch" regarding Blizzard conditions not being met yesterday.  I saw the KBOS data and I am surprised they came to that conclusion...they were a hell of a lot closer to verifying actual Blizzard conditions yday than for most of the Blizzard Watches/Warnings that seem to get issued "frequently" by BOX and OKX down on the Island. 

I don't have data to back that up, but having lived down there for decades, it's my observation that those 2 NWS offices are issuing BW's much more often over the past decade.

I suspect it's a policy approach change over the years...rather overwarn than suffer sh!tbag politicians and other whiners complaining and criticizing that they weren't "kept safe." 

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

You guys are nuts.  The cold always makes a few of you (BuffaloWeather I'm looking in your direction) fold but this is downright blasphemous.  This thaw will be a crusher.  I'd do anything to maintain this awesome pattern indefinitely (and yes, I am fighting ice dams myself....they do suck)

Who is nuts? By the time this pattern starts to relax (Monday), it will almost 2 solid weeks averaging about 15-20 deg below normal, with record lows and frequent (if not overwhelming for most of us) snow. I don't mind snow and cold, but enough is enough. Give me enough warmth to clear the damn ice dams off my roof and then we can go back to winter. We still have all of February and March ahead of us.

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57 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Perused the NE thread...quite the squabble over KBOX replay review of " no catch" regarding Blizzard conditions not being met yesterday.  I saw the KBOS data and I am surprised they came to that conclusion...they were a hell of a lot closer to verifying actual Blizzard conditions yday than for most of the Blizzard Watches/Warnings that seem to get issued "frequently" by BOX and OKX down on the Island. 

I don't have data to back that up, but having lived down there for decades, it's my observation that those 2 NWS offices are issuing BW's much more often over the past decade.

I suspect it's a policy approach change over the years...rather overwarn than suffer sh!tbag politicians and other whiners complaining and criticizing that they weren't "kept safe." 

The funny part is that there were literally decades between blizzard warnings issued by KBUF, despite the fact that events around the lakes reach blizzard criteria multiple times a year. But no one here demands the validation of either blizzard warnings or verification of warnings, because we're too busy dealing with actual snow and wind.

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I gotta say, it took it a while to catch on but it finally did, as the storm was already in progress. Totals look good but the coup goes to the GGEM! Did, a great job with the cold and the track, better than both the GFS and EURO. The NAM was the first that had the idea of a closer in coastal and in the end it verified so.

 

Depends what timeframe and model runs you look at.  GEMs slp depictions struggled as much as the other globals did, likely due to multiple vortices. What GEM did have was indication of a double barrel low structure (like EC and which didn't really materialize), and heavy qpf over SNE, but it's lowest slp was still way east, going back to 0z Sunday run. 

In the end, looks like the slp passed just east of the 40/70 BM, around 40N/68E, which was closer in than some models/runs were showing in the days prior.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Depends what timeframe and model runs you look at.  GEMs slp depictions struggled as much as the other globals did, likely due to multiple vortices. What GEM did have was indication of a double barrel low structure and heavy qpf over SNE, but it's lowest slp was still way east, going back to 0z Sunday run. 

In the end, looks like the slp passed just east of the 40/70 BM, around 40N/68E, which was closer in than some models/runs were showing.

Anyone catch was the min pressure was?

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I doubt we're sustained at 35 mph, but it sure looks like blizzard conditions where I'm at , that's for sure. Visibility is 1/4 mile, if that, at times with blowing and drifting of this powder. Snow has picked up considerably here in SO. Oswego County the past hour or so.  Wind is making it virtually impossible to measure this snow with any accuracy. 

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