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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Wakefield VA AFD:

A spectacular cyclone is developing ~175mi ESE of Cape Lookout
this evening with rapidly cooling cloud tops and convection on
the NW periphery of the low. MSAS analysis depicts a 996mb low
as of 0230z. However, buoy 41002 225nm S of Cape Hatteras has a
pressure of 992mb. Snow is developing locally across SE
VA/interior NE NC to the Ern Shore with the dry airmass now
retreating to the N, and rain for coastal NE NC.
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49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. 

All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. 

I don't know that I'd go that far (other than weenies will be weenies). We see the limitations of modeling up here with the lakes...all the time. IMO NWP did a good job with this system as it has shown a pretty consistent track somewhere east or over the 40/70 Benchmark for days now. The Incoming trough axis was positive tilt east of the Mississippi River, needed to be more neutral at that point, along with downstream blocking/ridging being better. It's a real close call but by the time it started going negative tilt...with the downstream block sort of self generated (+NAO)....the system slides out stage right and doesn't hook or hug coastline.  I think this was foreseeable by pros and also well modeled in the various NWP suites.

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8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I don't know that I'd go that far (other than weenies will be weenies). We see the limitations of modeling up here with the lakes...all the time. IMO NWP did a good job with this system as it has shown a pretty consistent track somewhere east or over the 40/70 Benchmark for days now. The Incoming trough axis was positive tilt east of the Mississippi River, needed to be more neutral at that point, along with downstream blocking/ridging being better. It's a real close call but by the time it started going negative tilt...with the downstream block sort of self generated (+NAO)....the system slides out stage right and doesn't hook or hug coastline.  I think this was foreseeable by pros and also well modeled in the various NWP suites.

I totally agree that human input is necessary with meso scale stuff like LES. The models don’t have that sort of resolution. YET

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I’m sitting here thinking about why this can’t go west and it occurred to me that our local wx kinda demonstrates why. If we had a more phased storm, anything of the lakes would be on a N flow. Instead, and due to the GL trough and cold core, we have LES on a SW wind. 

Probably self evident to you guys. It’s so complicated.

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

You can also see the moisture feed just halt as it gets just to the SE of NYC. Don't know exactly whats causing that but it doesn't look good.  I don't even like our chances of wrap around moisture to enhance or spray or whatever is coming off of Lake Ontario.  I think once again places up closer to the lake shore gets the brunt of this event.  Oswego Pulaski and Mexico  and perhaps Fulton should see appreciable snows, but down here it just doesn't bode well for much accumulation so good luck to all.  At least we now have a radar to b**ch over, lol!

All over the place as u would expect..

574A1615-99F6-4256-8732-29B062074EA6.png

584DB744-4964-4369-B75C-0F86EE8BD1FA.png

8E1496F6-D763-4D38-AC69-E132BE65261A.png

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I totally give up!  Just want out of this horrifically cold dry pattern, YUK!

This cold dry pattern gave areas of NY near historic snows. It just wasn’t you. It was all about the constant march of clippers directly north of Lake Ontario. 50 miles south and you woulda been good. 

But you are in luck. This LP will shake up the entire hemispheric regime.,So we lay down new tracks. Nobody knows what they will be. 

 

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Looks like KBUF might hit this convergence band over the Eastern Counties of Lake Ontario.  Winds In the lower levels are starting to veer to the WNW and at the same time Moisture from the Coastal is streaming up from the ESE with a quickness in the upper levels.  Already had some flurries but it looks like the band may set up a bit later maybe more closer to 13-14Z

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What I also see going on is, the band of LE that got going on a SW flow last night is starting to quickly veer to the NW, which will drag this band to the S&E into Oswego County and eventually it should interact with the Coastal moisture to start enhancing the precip to the SE of the lake.  This scenario can get quite interesting but I won't hold my breath that's for sure!

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I have a squall coming through with hugh parachutes coming down it just looks awesome, lol!  New England is finally experiencing what we often experience but when there's 4 million ppl, it then becomes a complete headache. New York is under a State of Emergency not because of snow but rather the dangerously cold temps that are incoming after this system heads off to our N&E.  I think this storm ended up, definitely close enough for us to have some fun here the next few days and it can get real fun if some Moisture hangs around a bit longer than expected. I haven't even checked the 12Z runs as I've been tracking this beast of a Nor'Easter.

5a4e6262e01aa_SAT_ERG2_WVENH_ANI(4).gif.3132ef896d6bc21244b344e35525fae9.gif

Just an Epic sattelirte view of this Extreme Event.

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34 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I have a squall coming through with hugh parachutes coming down it just looks awesome, lol!  New England is finally experiencing what we often experience but when there's 4 million ppl, it then becomes a complete headache. New York is under a State of Emergency not because of snow but rather the dangerously cold temps that are incoming after this system heads off to our N&E.  I think this storm ended up, definitely close enough for us to have some fun here the next few days and it can get real fun if some Moisture hangs around a bit longer than expected. I haven't even checked the 12Z runs as I've been tracking this beast of a Nor'Easter.

5a4e6262e01aa_SAT_ERG2_WVENH_ANI(4).gif.3132ef896d6bc21244b344e35525fae9.gif

Just an Epic sattelirte view of this Extreme Event.

In the end, it came pretty far west. You were mostly correct sir. 

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