Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Steady snow falling here, big fat dendrites. Winter wonderland continues on the Niagara Frontier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's pretty far out, but the lake doesn't mean much when you get a pacific dominant flow. +8-12 would be a pretty big torch, and this pattern would last awhile. Would at least free up Erie a bit for Feb Lake Effect. On the positive side, we're heading into the coldest climo period of the year. So above average this time of year doesn't necessarily rule out snow chances. But no doubt this cold and largely dry pattern is on its last legs after one more arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Nam is ugly for all. NAM has the darkest shade of blue I think I've every seen over Long Island at hour 15. 951 mb low spinning a couple hundred miles southeast of LI at that time. Wicked snowfall rates I would think for a few hours under that precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Stole this off twitter. It’s some NAM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It’s just the 3k kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I don't even know if the advisories in ENY are even warranted art this point. The precip shield barely makes back to KALB so something is amiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The Northern Branch doesn't phase in till its in the GOM which is just our luck. If the Northern branch would of phased in 18 hrs sooner then the whole NE would of saw at least a moderate plowable snowfall but no, it had to do it 18 hrs too late, damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Rgem has a similar look as the 3k nam, out to 48.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Armageddon in NE as the forum servers are about to crash. Some MA posters are just about ready to jump with how close that precip shield is, especially NYC posters, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Armageddon in NE as the forum servers are about to crash. Some MA posters are just about ready to jump with how close that precip shield is, especially NYC posters, lol! We are about in the same expectation zone as most of the NE and MA forums...just will take us an extra day to get there. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I don't even know if the advisories in ENY are even warranted art this point. The precip shield barely makes back to KALB so something is amiss. I had a tough time forecasting the western edge in a contest...BTV, ALY, ABE, PHL, DCA, RIC...all on the bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I don't even think the SPC analysis is right with the placement of the SLP. This thing is beginning to go negative and the cloud shield if definitely getting further west than first anticipated not that it means much. Man What a beauty and if only it phased in now insyead of tomorrow, lol, then we'd be in big business! Not this time however! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It’s such a waste. All that energy just dumped in the Atlantic!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The 6z nam had me all kinds of hopefull this morning. Haha. I was nammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Can you imagine if this thing just decided to continue heading to the NNW and head right over NYC and then N then NE from there. One can only wish but if I just looked at this without knowing the model output, that's exactly what I would think, with a H500 going so negative so early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 look at how far West that darn ridge axis is. Just unreal that this thing is headed the way its headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Think as modeled it kicks out to sea once it get to hatteres Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The Synoptic scale moisture gets less and less with each successive run, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 You can also see the moisture feed just halt as it gets just to the SE of NYC. Don't know exactly whats causing that but it doesn't look good. I don't even like our chances of wrap around moisture to enhance or spray or whatever is coming off of Lake Ontario. I think once again places up closer to the lake shore gets the brunt of this event. Oswego Pulaski and Mexico and perhaps Fulton should see appreciable snows, but down here it just doesn't bode well for much accumulation so good luck to all. At least we now have a radar to b**ch over, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looks like hurricane season again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Tell you what though, that Erie band looks fierce, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tell you what though, that Erie band looks fierce, WOW! Yes sir...2+ hours now of steady snow here. Not too heavy at my location, looks better a bit more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like hurricane season again If that's the center of the SLP then the SLP is definitely further West for sure but I don't think it means much for our sensible weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That friggen GL's Trough is screwing up everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. If all else fails, always trust the Euro. It has by far the most algorithms incorporated into it then any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Tell you what though, that Erie band looks fierce, WOW! Yeah and it look like its slowed its southward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Freaking beautiful out here right now. Monster dendrites pouring from the sky and not a puff of wind. 2” new OTG. Probably 3”/hr fluff balls falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 KBGM AFD excerpt: The mid and upper level forcing is one area that we`re keying in on to play a significant role in producing accumulating snow on Thursday. Both the NAM and GFS are showing indications of at least 1 strong layer of mid level f-gen around 850mb which sets up just east of the Poconos...and even potentially a secondary 700mb f-gen band further to the west. Each of these could induce a couple enhanced bands of snow...the main one being to the east and the secondary one into the Finger Lakes. Snowfall amounts in the Finger Lakes should remain less than 2 inches. Areas from the Wyoming Valley/Poconos into the Catskills should see around 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 40 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks like hurricane season again That's pretty awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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