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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's pretty far out, but the lake doesn't mean much when you get a pacific dominant flow. +8-12 would be a pretty big torch, and this pattern would last awhile. Would at least free up Erie a bit for Feb Lake Effect. 

 

 

On the positive side, we're heading into the coldest climo period of the year.  So above average this time of year doesn't necessarily rule out snow chances.  But no doubt this cold and largely dry pattern is on its last legs after one more arctic blast.  

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7 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Armageddon in NE as the forum servers are about to crash. Some MA posters are just about ready to jump with how close that precip shield is, especially NYC posters, lol!

We are about in the same expectation zone as most of the NE and MA forums...just will take us an extra day to get there.  Maybe. ;)

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22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I don't even know if the advisories in ENY are even warranted art this point. The precip shield barely makes back to KALB so something is amiss.

I had a tough time forecasting the western edge in a contest...BTV, ALY, ABE, PHL, DCA, RIC...all on the bubble.

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I don't even think the SPC analysis is right with the placement of the SLP.  This thing is beginning to go negative and the cloud shield if definitely getting further west than first anticipated not that it means much.

5a4da6fd1c634_SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANI(1).gif.364d323076790e1c5f001fd43b2a2cdd.gif

Man What a beauty and if only it phased in now insyead of tomorrow, lol, then we'd be in big business! Not this time however!

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Can you imagine if this thing just decided to continue heading to the NNW and head right over NYC and then N then NE from there. One can only wish but if I just looked at this without knowing the model output, that's exactly what I would think, with a H500 going so negative so early!

 

500mb_sf.gif?1515038782508

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You can also see the moisture feed just halt as it gets just to the SE of NYC. Don't know exactly whats causing that but it doesn't look good.  I don't even like our chances of wrap around moisture to enhance or spray or whatever is coming off of Lake Ontario.  I think once again places up closer to the lake shore gets the brunt of this event.  Oswego Pulaski and Mexico  and perhaps Fulton should see appreciable snows, but down here it just doesn't bode well for much accumulation so good luck to all.  At least we now have a radar to b**ch over, lol!

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This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. 

All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. 

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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This storm shows why models outperform human forecasting. They digest millions of bits of info and output superior prognostics. 

All day, the weenies been mining for signs of a westward trend. It ain’t gonna happen. And the models held to that. Folks in DC and Philly gonna be stumped. Just like the Euro always said. 

If all else fails, always trust the Euro. It has by far the most algorithms incorporated into it then any other model. 

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KBGM AFD excerpt:

The mid and upper level forcing is one area that we`re keying in
on to play a significant role in producing accumulating snow on
Thursday. Both the NAM and GFS are showing indications of at
least 1 strong layer of mid level f-gen around 850mb which
sets up just east of the Poconos...and even potentially a
secondary 700mb f-gen band further to the west. Each of these
could induce a couple enhanced bands of snow...the main one
being to the east and the secondary one into the Finger Lakes.
Snowfall amounts in the Finger Lakes should remain less than 2
inches. Areas from the Wyoming Valley/Poconos into the Catskills
should see around 2 to 4 inches.
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