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Upstate/Eastern New York


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35 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

I call bull****!  It went from 5-8" to 12-18", what happened to 8"-12", lol? Do they even justify this in their afternoon discussion? Perhaps their buying into what the 3K is selling?

This is more like it...give me 2" or give me death!

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (4).png

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What an absolute joke that is to see such a HUGE difference between Oswego County and Onondaga Counties ,regarding snowfall totals. Suffice to say KBGM's map goes out to tomorrow evening while KBUF's goes to Saturday evening but its still a HUGE difference.  What justifies such a difference? You know they didn't pick up the phone and call KBUF or vice versus and with a situation like this one, they should definitely have collaborated with this one but nah. Its not a competition amongst offices as its about public safety. They are public servants, working to make sure we are safe. A lot has changed, throughout the years, and I'm not certain if it all was for the better.

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kBUF interesting discussion

Things get interesting as a strengthening coastal low pressure moves
along the east coast. The Great Lakes upper level trough will dig
southward in response to the coastal low moving into the Canadian
Maritimes. Most of the precipitation from the coastal low will be
east of the region with the exception of a potential convergence
band that sets up across eastern Lake Ontario Thursday morning. This
combined with a lake effect band off Ontario will intensify snowfall
across the southeast shore of Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates will
likely increase and snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible
through Thursday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch begins Thursday
afternoon for Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego counties. Off Lake Erie,
lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday afternoon.
There will be an upstream moisture source from Huron however
synoptic scale moisture and low inversion heights will inhibit heavy
snow. Amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with higher amounts in more
persistent bands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
...Dangerously cold with accompanying lake effect snows for the
end of the week...

Moving into Thursday night, the main focus in the Eastern U.S. will
be on the intense coastal low that will be continuing to pound New
England as it tracks across the Gulf of Maine and moves north into
the Canadian Maritimes. However, closer to home, the main concern in
the lower Great Lakes will be the bitterly cold arctic airmass that
will be drawn across the region in the wake of this impressive
system. This will be the coldest shot of air we have seen yet, with
lows dipping into the single digits below zero south of Lake
Ontario, while the North Country will plunge into the 10 to 20 below
range.

Even colder air will arrive over the region on Friday, when
temperatures will fail to climb above zero across many areas, with
even the warmest areas barely topping 5 above zero both Friday and
Saturday. Friday night, temperatures will fall even lower, with 5 to
10 below zero expected south of Lake Ontario, while in the North
Country, ambient temperatures may plunge as low as -30. To add
insult to injury, a brisk northwesterly flow will be in place across
the region during this period, as a fairly robust pressure gradient
will remain in place between the departing low and an arctic high to
our west, over the upper Midwest and western/central Great Lakes.
This will keep wind chills dangerously cold from Thursday night
through Saturday, with readings as low as -25 in western New York to
-40 in the North Country.  Even during the day on Friday and
Saturday, wind chills will run in the -15 to -25 range. These wind
chills are dangerous, as exposed skin can freeze in a matter of
minutes. A wind chill watch remains in effect for all of the
forecast area for this period.

In addition to the bitterly cold temperatures, the cold advection
across the lakes on well-aligned northwesterly flow will generate
lake effect snows southeast of the lakes over a fairly prolonged
period, from Thursday afternoon into Saturday. While temperatures
will actually be colder than the dendritic growth zone at times,
limiting accumulation rates, the sheer persistence of the flow and
the magnitude of lake instability may still result in accumulations
in excess of a foot through this period southeast of Lake Ontario,
necessitating a winter storm watch. Shorter fetch southeast of Lake
Erie and the likelihood of multi-banded LES should keep
accumulations lower through the period, on the order of 4-8 inches
total.
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FWIW, the H700 moisture shield is definitely further West than any of the global models had it a this point. One other thing I find quite interesting is the Coastal front that has developed and you can see it as it extends directly to the North of the SLP. You can see the kink in the isobars, and this is the path I believe this SLP may ultimately track but we'll have to see the next few hrs if it does track along it.

pmsl.gif?1515021034434

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Precip shield into Central VA, interesting. Not sure this was modeled this way. Curious to see how this plays out further north and east. Also not sure if it's a virga storm there or not. Hoping my old stomping grounds in SE VA does well.

I was thinking the same thing if it was reaching the ground or not but I'll check. Indeed, places in CVA are reporting S+.

ptyp.gif?1515021679787

There's also rain just off the coast approaching KATC which there wasn't in their forecast, so it appears warmer temps are being drawn further West than first anticipated!

 

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5 minutes ago, katodog said:

i keep thinking the models are wrong. the storm is going over new hampshire. i dont know but it seems like it.

If that ever happened it would be the absolute bust of the century, lol! It would essentially have to enter SNE from the South and run the SLP up through RI straight North into NH, lol! Not this time around!

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Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week.  Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see.

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9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week.  Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see.

that is not good news. i dont like thaws messing up winter

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7 minutes ago, katodog said:

that is not good news. i dont like thaws messing up winter

Most memorable winters have healthy thaws then the second half of Winter begins!  I'm ok with a thaw just as long as it comes back in Mid-Feb through March. We definitely don't want a Morch thats for sure, but it doesn't look that way, at least according to the CSV2.

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1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week.  Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see.

Yep long range is torchific. 40s and 50s 

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

With the lake frozen I doubt we get that warm plus with the expanse of snow cover that will be enough to mute a true torch...might get near 40 but I would be skeptical of a torch.

It's pretty far out, but the lake doesn't mean much when you get a pacific dominant flow. +8-12 would be a pretty big torch, and this pattern would last awhile. Would at least free up Erie a bit for Feb Lake Effect. 

eps_z500a_eastcoastus_360.png

eps_t850_anom_eastcoastus_360.png

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