CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Advisories all the way back now to almost Utica . Guess the offices, throughout the Northeast, may also think its coming a bit further west or else there wouldn't be anything issued from KALB thats for sure and also KBGM unless they were absolutely sure so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 35 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I call bull****! It went from 5-8" to 12-18", what happened to 8"-12", lol? Do they even justify this in their afternoon discussion? Perhaps their buying into what the 3K is selling? This is more like it...give me 2" or give me death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 What an absolute joke that is to see such a HUGE difference between Oswego County and Onondaga Counties ,regarding snowfall totals. Suffice to say KBGM's map goes out to tomorrow evening while KBUF's goes to Saturday evening but its still a HUGE difference. What justifies such a difference? You know they didn't pick up the phone and call KBUF or vice versus and with a situation like this one, they should definitely have collaborated with this one but nah. Its not a competition amongst offices as its about public safety. They are public servants, working to make sure we are safe. A lot has changed, throughout the years, and I'm not certain if it all was for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 kBUF interesting discussion Things get interesting as a strengthening coastal low pressure moves along the east coast. The Great Lakes upper level trough will dig southward in response to the coastal low moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Most of the precipitation from the coastal low will be east of the region with the exception of a potential convergence band that sets up across eastern Lake Ontario Thursday morning. This combined with a lake effect band off Ontario will intensify snowfall across the southeast shore of Lake Ontario. Snowfall rates will likely increase and snowfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible through Thursday afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch begins Thursday afternoon for Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego counties. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday afternoon. There will be an upstream moisture source from Huron however synoptic scale moisture and low inversion heights will inhibit heavy snow. Amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with higher amounts in more persistent bands. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Dangerously cold with accompanying lake effect snows for the end of the week... Moving into Thursday night, the main focus in the Eastern U.S. will be on the intense coastal low that will be continuing to pound New England as it tracks across the Gulf of Maine and moves north into the Canadian Maritimes. However, closer to home, the main concern in the lower Great Lakes will be the bitterly cold arctic airmass that will be drawn across the region in the wake of this impressive system. This will be the coldest shot of air we have seen yet, with lows dipping into the single digits below zero south of Lake Ontario, while the North Country will plunge into the 10 to 20 below range. Even colder air will arrive over the region on Friday, when temperatures will fail to climb above zero across many areas, with even the warmest areas barely topping 5 above zero both Friday and Saturday. Friday night, temperatures will fall even lower, with 5 to 10 below zero expected south of Lake Ontario, while in the North Country, ambient temperatures may plunge as low as -30. To add insult to injury, a brisk northwesterly flow will be in place across the region during this period, as a fairly robust pressure gradient will remain in place between the departing low and an arctic high to our west, over the upper Midwest and western/central Great Lakes. This will keep wind chills dangerously cold from Thursday night through Saturday, with readings as low as -25 in western New York to -40 in the North Country. Even during the day on Friday and Saturday, wind chills will run in the -15 to -25 range. These wind chills are dangerous, as exposed skin can freeze in a matter of minutes. A wind chill watch remains in effect for all of the forecast area for this period. In addition to the bitterly cold temperatures, the cold advection across the lakes on well-aligned northwesterly flow will generate lake effect snows southeast of the lakes over a fairly prolonged period, from Thursday afternoon into Saturday. While temperatures will actually be colder than the dendritic growth zone at times, limiting accumulation rates, the sheer persistence of the flow and the magnitude of lake instability may still result in accumulations in excess of a foot through this period southeast of Lake Ontario, necessitating a winter storm watch. Shorter fetch southeast of Lake Erie and the likelihood of multi-banded LES should keep accumulations lower through the period, on the order of 4-8 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW, the H700 moisture shield is definitely further West than any of the global models had it a this point. One other thing I find quite interesting is the Coastal front that has developed and you can see it as it extends directly to the North of the SLP. You can see the kink in the isobars, and this is the path I believe this SLP may ultimately track but we'll have to see the next few hrs if it does track along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Precip shield into Central VA, interesting. Not sure this was modeled this way. Curious to see how this plays out further north and east. Also not sure if it's a virga storm there or not. Hoping my old stomping grounds in SE VA does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Precip shield into Central VA, interesting. Not sure this was modeled this way. Curious to see how this plays out further north and east. Also not sure if it's a virga storm there or not. Hoping my old stomping grounds in SE VA does well. I was thinking the same thing if it was reaching the ground or not but I'll check. Indeed, places in CVA are reporting S+. There's also rain just off the coast approaching KATC which there wasn't in their forecast, so it appears warmer temps are being drawn further West than first anticipated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I don't know how accurate this is though as its also reporting snow in alot of places out in WNY but it doesn't look like its doing much to me, so I don't know at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 KBUF talking up some sort of convergence band situated over us tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Boston gets a foot of snow and the forums shut down. Crazy how spoiled we are in the belts, sometimes take that for granted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i keep thinking the models are wrong. the storm is going over new hampshire. i dont know but it seems like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, katodog said: i keep thinking the models are wrong. the storm is going over new hampshire. i dont know but it seems like it. If that ever happened it would be the absolute bust of the century, lol! It would essentially have to enter SNE from the South and run the SLP up through RI straight North into NH, lol! Not this time around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 The only shifts now are on the magnitude of 50-100 miles. Not 750. Unfortunately. The lake is our wild card. 6-12” fcst for MBY. I’d take that. Might beat areas with blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The only shifts now are on the magnitude of 50-100 miles. Not 750. Unfortunately. The lake is our wild card. 6-12” fcst for MBY. I’d take that. Might beat areas with blizzard warnings. that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, katodog said: that would be nice One of the things I love about lake effect are last minute surprises. It’s been a long time since we had an unforecast blizzard. a little over 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week. Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Was thinking blizzard for south shore too yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week. Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see. that is not good news. i dont like thaws messing up winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, katodog said: that is not good news. i dont like thaws messing up winter Most memorable winters have healthy thaws then the second half of Winter begins! I'm ok with a thaw just as long as it comes back in Mid-Feb through March. We definitely don't want a Morch thats for sure, but it doesn't look that way, at least according to the CSV2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I think the models have a pretty good handle on this thing. It also looks like we now have one SLP to track instead of two or three like a couple of globals were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like there's one more shot of Arctic air after next weeks event, before a healthy thaw ensues the following week. Its unclear how warm we actually get but it can be a memorable one if the Euro is right but if the GFS and the GGEM have any say in it, then it doesn't look that warm. I guess we'll see. Yep long range is torchific. 40s and 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I am cool with a week or so of milder. Anymore than that flush it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 That' what cfsv2 is showing a week thaw then back to a wintry patter 1 week of feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Would tend to think theres a chance of a decent snowstorm just before thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yep long range is torchific. 40s and 50s With the lake frozen I doubt we get that warm plus with the expanse of snow cover that will be enough to mute a true torch...might get near 40 but I would be skeptical of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: With the lake frozen I doubt we get that warm plus with the expanse of snow cover that will be enough to mute a true torch...might get near 40 but I would be skeptical of a torch. It's pretty far out, but the lake doesn't mean much when you get a pacific dominant flow. +8-12 would be a pretty big torch, and this pattern would last awhile. Would at least free up Erie a bit for Feb Lake Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ok guys, back to the bomb. 0z NAM is in. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Massive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, vortmax said: Ok guys, back to the bomb. 0z NAM is in. Discuss. What does it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nam is ugly for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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