BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 NEW YORK ...Oswego County... Scriba 22.0 843 PM 1/01 Trained Spotter Mexico 16.0 730 PM 1/01 16 INCHES IN 2.5 HOURS Hastings 10.5 839 PM 1/01 Social Media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:47 AM, BuffaloWeather said: NEW YORK ...Oswego County... Scriba 22.0 843 PM 1/01 Trained Spotter Mexico 16.0 730 PM 1/01 16 INCHES IN 2.5 HOURS Hastings 10.5 839 PM 1/01 Social Media Expand What time period are those? I don't see anything on Cocorahs for 24 hr totals that approach that, in Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:00 AM, Syrmax said: What time period are those? I don't see anything on Cocorahs for 24 hr totals that approach that, in Oswego county. Expand You won't see them until tomorrow morning. But those are just from today I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Reed documented it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:03 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Reed documented it. Expand Wow. I haven't been up there in a few years as I don't work there now, but it all looks familiar. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Going to rip in roc for a few hours I think ad bands consolidate and intensify. Big saying 3 to 5 more overnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 5:18 AM, tim123 said: Going to rip in roc for a few hours I think ad bands consolidate and intensify. Big saying 3 to 5 more overnite Expand Not seeing that. CMC holding onto some backend lake enhancement on the storm. Big storm. Too bad it’s east of the benchmark and showing signs of sailing even further east. Of course, we still have almost 72 hrs to watch. The big one can move 400 Miles in that time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Rich Caniglia just said mixed storm on monday then colder next week and maybe january thaw after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Burst of moderate snow currently in Lancaster as the flow temporarily backs and a band of snow works its way up the lake. Looks like there's enough open water left on Erie to keep some lake effect going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6z Gfs didn’t look too bad for Monday, probably 4”-6” verbatim with some slop at the end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Euro's a lot further west with Monday's storm but that's a week away and we know a lot can and will change before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Westerly Weather should be cashing with a few inches this morning. I hope he's enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 2:56 PM, Buffalo Bumble said: Burst of moderate snow currently in Lancaster as the flow temporarily backs and a band of snow works its way up the lake. Looks like there's enough open water left on Erie to keep some lake effect going... Expand Pounding at least 1”/hr in West Seneca. Big fat fluffy dendrites... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wow, the coastal storm is looking to be sub-960. This is gonna intense...plus the 12z GFS is coming in a bit west with a more negatively-tilted look. We may not see synoptic, but LE could be quite interesting! More time for this westward shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gfs sucks with coastal storms. Will correct west till the end. Use nam model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM has a western bias. Use a blend. Don’t use the model that gives your desired outcome. All thatbeing said, we could do well with enhancement/ fake snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:50 PM, tim123 said: Gfs sucks with coastal storms. Will correct west till the end. Use nam model Expand GFS showing better upper air look...the surface will reflect that in later runs. NAM is just nuts. Would like to see more westward though...just need that northern kicker to be a phaser. May just happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Westerly is about to get pounded, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:54 PM, rochesterdave said: NAM has a western bias. Use a blend. Don’t use the model that gives your desired outcome. All thatbeing said, we could do well with enhancement/ fake snow. Expand There's a cyclonic, moist NW flow for a few days...that'll be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 KBUFs surprice LE event...enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:04 PM, vortmax said: KBUFs surprice LE event...enjoy! Expand Yeah nice forecast...again kindergartners predicting the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:07 PM, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah nice forecast...again kindergartners predicting the weather. Expand Whats going on with that office lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Buffalo band was in the NAM 3km. It will produce a few inches before dry air overtakes it. There is a winter weather advs in effect. Kbuf did fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Well that's what happens when you try and forcast the transition zone... it strikes back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 3:50 PM, tim123 said: Gfs sucks with coastal storms. Will correct west till the end. Use nam model Expand The NAM is the worst model for synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:12 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Well that's what happens when you try and forcast the transition zone... it strikes back! Expand Yeah, really good forecast, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Maybe you guys are right. They're calling it a snow squall. I think they've lost it. I saw that band last night in NAM 3km but figured it would give 1-2" max. NYZ010>012-085-021645- Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie- 1114 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2018 ...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...CENTRAL ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... At 1113 AM EST, a snow squall was located over Lancaster Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this squall. Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia, Depew, Amherst, Lancaster and Hamburg. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48. Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in this squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NAM had it but it looked so weak... Suprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It's the beauty of weather...so difficult to predict - especially in extreme patterns such as this. We need better models, more measurements, and more experience. I have a hunch the EC bomb will surprise many as well. Don't think the models have a handle on it yet in this extreme pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 On 1/2/2018 at 4:23 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Maybe you guys are right. They're calling it a snow squall. I think they've lost it. I saw that band last night in NAM 3km but figured it would give 1-2" max. NYZ010>012-085-021645- Southern Erie-Wyoming-Genesee-Northern Erie- 1114 AM EST TUE JAN 2 2018 ...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...CENTRAL ERIE AND WESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES... At 1113 AM EST, a snow squall was located over Lancaster Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this squall. Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Clarence, Lackawanna, Batavia, Depew, Amherst, Lancaster and Hamburg. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48. Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in this squall. Expand Tomorrow the new snow squall warning becomes operational. Is this the situation it will apply to or this considered a lake snow situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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