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Upstate/Eastern New York


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So am I , lol, This cold is for the birds.  I am not a fan of just dry and cold air. It's hard to just say, its been cold for the past week or two as its been brutally cold.  This hasn't been your ordinary shot of cold but rather historic for some locations in NYS!

The system for Thursday into the weekend should continue to adjust Westward cause the globals look to be suffering from convective feedback.  I've never seen a system start to head up the coast along the Coastal front and then all of a sudden it jumps the system 200 miles to its East.   I may be completely wrong, but I think that is a mistake and they may be seeing it now as most of the Euro's new ensemble package has more and more of its members now clustering around a benchmark hit, as it then continues to track up into the GOM.

I may be wrong, but I'm not ready to abandon my ideas from earlier, that it should hug the coast instead of jumping it out into the Atlantic, but I guess we'll see.  Like I said before, I'm really not interested in a direct hit from the system, as its quite improbable, but rather a closed and stacked upper lvl LP up over NH would bring us a prolonged period of Lake enhanced snowfall with ample moisture throughout the BL as winds line up from the WNW and eventually NW.

This is still days away and will likely change a few more times before they really converge on a solution .  It should be much closer to the Euro's original thoughts, but if not, then I will have learned a valuable lesson..

 
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I also think the band is definitely too far North on most models as it has it up in Northern Oswego County and I don't think it makes it that far North but it just may be my eyes playing tricks on me.  Albany also has Herkimer County in an adv I think as they also think the band is headed for the Northern Tug.

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Can’t wait to move a little up north lol

 

 
A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour will move onshore near Oswego and Scriba, and then
extend inland towards Mexico through late afternoon.

Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this band of heavy
snow moves into the area, with very low visibility and snow covered
roads.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Central Square, Nine Mile Point, Mexico Point State Park,
Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Palermo, New Haven and
Minetto.
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I think it settles somewhere between my crib and Mexico. Most likely KFZY on East through Central Square, which is just to my Northeast, and of course this scenario sounds about right as it puts me right in the area of clear sky's sucking exhaust from the subsidence just outside the band, lol! I'm so used to not getting hit thats its comical. I find a way that I can get screwed and this time its directly to my North by a few miles, and then as it drops through, I'll get an inch or so, then it'll settle just to my South and West on NW winds for the remainder of the event. lol! 

I drove through KFZY about an hr ago and the amount of snow they have otg, versus us, is just laughable. If I have a 1/4 of what they have, I'd perhaps be pushing it.

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Can’t wait to move a little up north lol

 

 

A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour will move onshore near Oswego and Scriba, and then
extend inland towards Mexico through late afternoon.

Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this band of heavy
snow moves into the area, with very low visibility and snow covered
roads.

Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Central Square, Nine Mile Point, Mexico Point State Park,
Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Palermo, New Haven and
Minetto.

Yep this sounds about right as I will get screwed by a few miles at best, lol!

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And it has begun, right on que too. The clouds to the South of the band are starting to erode as inflow starts to ramp up. Wow, places just to my North may cash in on close to a ft before things start to sag southward.

I know you guys out in WNY are watching that sick band come ashore in Orlease and Niagara counties.  It ahs to be snoiwing 4-3"/hr in that thing! WOW!!

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yea I probably should be one of the last to complain on this board, we have just had a ton of light-mod events, starts to wear on you lol We have had at least three inches 12 of the past 20 days,  but the majority being between 3”-6” and a high of 12”..

just drove to KFZY and like I said if I had a 1/4 of what you have, I'd be happy especially considering its not going anywhere anytime soon!

5a4aaab66ff04_RAD_KBUF_N0R_ANI(1).gif.b16eec7d73529b8218d4621881044984.gif

This thing is flying but man look at that thing!

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7 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Getting darker here...probably waiting for another 30 mins before it comes ashore. Hoping the GB band will seed LO and keep it going for a couple of hours.

our in Wayne County right? If so, you probably won't see any accumulating snows for a little while as its eroding to the South of the actual band as it gets better organized but when it comes through, I think you'll be quite happy.

Whoever says the Niagara Escarpment doesn't get snow, is nuts, lol.  They've gotten hit more times than KSYR, and that's quite rare. Please correct me if I'm wrong or has this yr been a rare occurrence?

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Starting to spit some flakes as we get teased by this band..

 

 

333AF52A-5649-410A-8EEB-8AE681BC4EF3.jpeg

I think you should just head a bit further NW of you maybe North of Scriba as they always get blasted and I don't know why but that area between KFZY and Oswego gets crushed every WNW, NW, and sometimes even on a SW flow from Erie.

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Winds just off the deck are quite high at around 30-35kts and a bit higher at H850 and they line up quite nicely after this front out of the WNW and gradualing heading NWerly, so I may actually have a little chance of seeing a couple hrs of heavier stuff but I wouldn't bet on it. Definitely starting to kick up where I am tats for sure.

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I like what I see but then again its so hard to forecast where a transitioning band will set-up after its done with its transitioning of the winds aloft.

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Next to the lake is not necessarily a good thing, that’s why Fulton avgs 40+ inches more than Oswego..

I like this area..

D1A1674C-2953-46D7-97CA-27321F1D7071.jpeg

No, I know it definitely isn't better, but I don't think there's much of a difference lets say, about 10-15 miles to you North than to your NE, but then again I don't know specific averages either so you'd know better as you've probably done extensive research, lol!  We didn't, as I would of never bought a house where we did, as it's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of where the band falls apart cause it loses about 30 miles of fetch on either a W or a WNWerly wind flow. NW just plain sucks unless there's a good connection to GB and even then we get missed either to my SW or my NE so either way the band sets up it sucks for me!

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