BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Figured as its the New Year we should get a new thread going. Friday will be one of the coldest days in recent memory for Upstate New York. Highs not going above 0 for many. A few clippers and some LES potential. Looks like a brief January thaw in the long range. Pretty boring pattern otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Close to shore in Sodus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Coming onshore in Oswego... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yea after a morning full of sunshine, clouds starting to roll in..We May be the “passer by” twice as winds veer back to the wsw tomorrow morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Advisory put out for the tug tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I may be caught on the outside looking in again too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hrrr looks to far north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 So am I , lol, This cold is for the birds. I am not a fan of just dry and cold air. It's hard to just say, its been cold for the past week or two as its been brutally cold. This hasn't been your ordinary shot of cold but rather historic for some locations in NYS! The system for Thursday into the weekend should continue to adjust Westward cause the globals look to be suffering from convective feedback. I've never seen a system start to head up the coast along the Coastal front and then all of a sudden it jumps the system 200 miles to its East. I may be completely wrong, but I think that is a mistake and they may be seeing it now as most of the Euro's new ensemble package has more and more of its members now clustering around a benchmark hit, as it then continues to track up into the GOM. I may be wrong, but I'm not ready to abandon my ideas from earlier, that it should hug the coast instead of jumping it out into the Atlantic, but I guess we'll see. Like I said before, I'm really not interested in a direct hit from the system, as its quite improbable, but rather a closed and stacked upper lvl LP up over NH would bring us a prolonged period of Lake enhanced snowfall with ample moisture throughout the BL as winds line up from the WNW and eventually NW. This is still days away and will likely change a few more times before they really converge on a solution . It should be much closer to the Euro's original thoughts, but if not, then I will have learned a valuable lesson.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I also think the band is definitely too far North on most models as it has it up in Northern Oswego County and I don't think it makes it that far North but it just may be my eyes playing tricks on me. Albany also has Herkimer County in an adv I think as they also think the band is headed for the Northern Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Can’t wait to move a little up north lol A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will move onshore near Oswego and Scriba, and then extend inland towards Mexico through late afternoon. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this band of heavy snow moves into the area, with very low visibility and snow covered roads. Locations impacted include... Oswego, Central Square, Nine Mile Point, Mexico Point State Park, Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Palermo, New Haven and Minetto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 I think it settles somewhere between my crib and Mexico. Most likely KFZY on East through Central Square, which is just to my Northeast, and of course this scenario sounds about right as it puts me right in the area of clear sky's sucking exhaust from the subsidence just outside the band, lol! I'm so used to not getting hit thats its comical. I find a way that I can get screwed and this time its directly to my North by a few miles, and then as it drops through, I'll get an inch or so, then it'll settle just to my South and West on NW winds for the remainder of the event. lol! I drove through KFZY about an hr ago and the amount of snow they have otg, versus us, is just laughable. If I have a 1/4 of what they have, I'd perhaps be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 The forum is running very slow today for some reason, as its taking a min or two, just to upload a new reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Can’t wait to move a little up north lol A band of heavy lake effect snow producing snow fall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will move onshore near Oswego and Scriba, and then extend inland towards Mexico through late afternoon. Travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this band of heavy snow moves into the area, with very low visibility and snow covered roads. Locations impacted include... Oswego, Central Square, Nine Mile Point, Mexico Point State Park, Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Scriba, Palermo, New Haven and Minetto. Yep this sounds about right as I will get screwed by a few miles at best, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Probably because the threat of an EC snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Probably because the threat of an EC snowstorm lol Yes true, as both the NE and MA threads are on fire. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Yea I probably should be one of the last to complain on this board, we have just had a ton of light-mod events, starts to wear on you lol We have had at least three inches 12 of the past 20 days, but the majority being between 3”-6” and a high of 12”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 And it has begun, right on que too. The clouds to the South of the band are starting to erode as inflow starts to ramp up. Wow, places just to my North may cash in on close to a ft before things start to sag southward. I know you guys out in WNY are watching that sick band come ashore in Orlease and Niagara counties. It ahs to be snoiwing 4-3"/hr in that thing! WOW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Getting darker here...probably waiting for another 30 mins before it comes ashore. Hoping the GB band will seed LO and keep it going for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yea I probably should be one of the last to complain on this board, we have just had a ton of light-mod events, starts to wear on you lol We have had at least three inches 12 of the past 20 days, but the majority being between 3”-6” and a high of 12”.. just drove to KFZY and like I said if I had a 1/4 of what you have, I'd be happy especially considering its not going anywhere anytime soon! This thing is flying but man look at that thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Starting to spit some flakes as we get teased by this band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Getting darker here...probably waiting for another 30 mins before it comes ashore. Hoping the GB band will seed LO and keep it going for a couple of hours. our in Wayne County right? If so, you probably won't see any accumulating snows for a little while as its eroding to the South of the actual band as it gets better organized but when it comes through, I think you'll be quite happy. Whoever says the Niagara Escarpment doesn't get snow, is nuts, lol. They've gotten hit more times than KSYR, and that's quite rare. Please correct me if I'm wrong or has this yr been a rare occurrence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to spit some flakes as we get teased by this band.. I think you should just head a bit further NW of you maybe North of Scriba as they always get blasted and I don't know why but that area between KFZY and Oswego gets crushed every WNW, NW, and sometimes even on a SW flow from Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2018 Author Share Posted January 1, 2018 The #Buffalo Airport set a new record low temperature this morning at 7:45 a.m. when the temperature dropped to -4 degrees. This breaks the old record of 0 set back in 1970. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201801011340-KBUF-SXUS71-RERBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Next to the lake is not necessarily a good thing, that’s why Fulton avgs 40+ inches more than Oswego.. I like this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Winds just off the deck are quite high at around 30-35kts and a bit higher at H850 and they line up quite nicely after this front out of the WNW and gradualing heading NWerly, so I may actually have a little chance of seeing a couple hrs of heavier stuff but I wouldn't bet on it. Definitely starting to kick up where I am tats for sure. I like what I see but then again its so hard to forecast where a transitioning band will set-up after its done with its transitioning of the winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next to the lake is not necessarily a good thing, that’s why Fulton avgs 40+ inches more than Oswego.. I like this area.. No, I know it definitely isn't better, but I don't think there's much of a difference lets say, about 10-15 miles to you North than to your NE, but then again I don't know specific averages either so you'd know better as you've probably done extensive research, lol! We didn't, as I would of never bought a house where we did, as it's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of where the band falls apart cause it loses about 30 miles of fetch on either a W or a WNWerly wind flow. NW just plain sucks unless there's a good connection to GB and even then we get missed either to my SW or my NE so either way the band sets up it sucks for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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