NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The mid-level closed cyclones actually pass over Cape Cod this run. I supposed there is room for another adjustment West. It also looked like it was more of capture at the end of the run by the trough rather than a kick. Everyone that lives within the darker shade of green should at least get a period of decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thanks Ralph. 50 miles east of hatteras and I would feel confident that much of SE PA(Bucks/mont/del/phila) sees 3-6 inches, obviously less west and more east. Inside of 50 miles and I think SE PA gets into WSW snows...maybe not quite 6z NAM but a solid 4-8 inches. Get this to hatteras benchmark and we take our chances from there. Fate is going to come once it reaches that latitude imo and we see if it hugs the coastal baro zone or jumps east. Total nowcast imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3k is a beauty irt the coastal front and extreme thermal barolcinicity setting up between BN land and AN ssts. Looks at that convection along the fronto band. wow I'm really looking forward to the new GOES 16 visible shots tomorrow. They will be an absolute beauty. Even infrared tonight as the storm explode should be very very awesome to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 wow I'm really looking forward to the new GOES 16 visible shots tomorrow. They will be an absolute beauty. Even infrared tonight as the storm explode should be very very awesome to watch.The higher resolution stuff will possibly school the globals with this one. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: with the temps and much less wind inland, ratio's should be 12-15:1 inland. The coast is going to be hurt by the wind. So this map is likely underdone other than the coast. To me, this shows 3-5 inches even in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You can tell how close the mid-level cyclones were this run to the coast because the high res even has an hour or two of mixing on Eastern LI before it flips back over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Total night and day from upper Mont/Bucks counties to lower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K NAM is a wonderful hit for SEPA through 28 with banding trying to push west at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think y'all already knew but my interest level is a 10 of 10 now. 3k is 8 mb deeper on its approach to us and a fair amount N and W of last run. I keep telling myself its the NAM tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 still coming down through hr 31 (12 hrs of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 3k NAM shows 12"+ amounts well inland. The numbers below are too low for coastal sections, but ratios will be less there because of the stronger wind, especially for Suffolk. There could also be some brief mixing on the South shore, especially in the usual areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K nearly on the benchmark at 31 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k NAM also tracks the storm almost directly over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm surprised we only have 18 members here currently. In any event, folks that live on the immediate coast shouldn't be worried about a lot of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: and for a lot of our area. I mean not to their level but this is a 6-10" storm if it verifies for much of SE PA and SNJ with lollies of a ft in SNJ. Even NNJ sees 3-6". Voyager would be very close to or over 3 inches as well. Great run for just about everyone in this subforum except maybe the immediate coast as it is possible there would be mixing issues. I saw that. It actually throws out a 7 inch amount up on the ridge/plateau of Hazleton north of me. I wasn't expecting to see this, and while I take what it's showing with a grain of salt, I'm kind of intrigued now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K nearly on the benchmark at 31 hrsMan, total nowcast. After 12z we ditch the models imo. Im almost glad im off to work. I need to walk away for a while lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: About to get kicked, but looks further North than 06z run. This is really the whole game right here. That's much better. Let's see what the globals say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: wow I'm really looking forward to the new GOES 16 visible shots tomorrow. They will be an absolute beauty. Even infrared tonight as the storm explode should be very very awesome to watch. The higher resolution stuff will possibly school the globals with this one. Insane. I don't think any of us expected this much of a reversal but most of us never gave up on this one coming back. Sometimes seasonal trends are the best tool for mid range forecasting. Both of us said to watch this over the weekend when it was in Bermuda as the trend for storms to trend north and west this year as been a common theme. That along with the fact deep systems like this typically verify further NW than foretasted kept me hanging on. To me when the globals continued to trend west yesterday afternoon and night, and continued to spit out weird precip distribution with big convective blobs and multiple low structures I had a feeling the meso's would have a better handle on the storm. Now it is not set in stone yet, but based on the fact the globals have continually trended towards the meso's and not vice versa leads me to believe they have the best idea on this storm. It's not only because they happen to give me the most snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised we only have 18 members here currently. In any event, folks that live on the immediate coast shouldn't be worried about a lot of mixing. The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised we only have 18 members here currently. In any event, folks that live on the immediate coast shouldn't be worried about a lot of mixing. The philly board just doesn't have a huge member base anymore. Many of them post on the "other board". A lot of good stuff there too and I miss a lot of those posters but the smaller group is nice during big events as we all get along and thread doesn't grow at an exponential rate making it hard to keep up with what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented. There are scenarios with this storm that give DC and NYC virtually nada, and decent snows for this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented. Everyone seems to push for this and I know not why. If this were merged with NYC, I probably would post very little in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: The philly board just doesn't have a huge member base anymore. Many of them post on the "other board". A lot of good stuff there too and I miss a lot of those posters but the smaller group is nice during big events as we all get along and thread doesn't grow at an exponential rate making it hard to keep up with what is going on. I read both, have some good Mets. on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented. Let's not do this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented. I wouldn't care either way but the NYC board is already super NYC-centric...I know long island and NW NJ and NYC burbs folks already find that annoying. If a storm isn't a city threat then the thread tends to be all negative and emo and if it is a city threat the focus is always on the city. I couldn't imagine if we were merged and a storm like 2010 happened where philly got 28" and NYC nada. Snow is serious business for some folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Let's not do this again. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Coming from someone who mainly lurks, listens, and learns - back since the Eastern US Wx days - I appreciate the smaller user base because it's the posters who I've regularly listened to and give good analysis. Less weenies (myself excepted ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I wouldn't care either way but the NYC board is already super NYC-centric...I know long island and NW NJ and NYC burbs folks already find that annoying. If a storm isn't a city threat then the thread tends to be all negative and emo and if it is a city threat the focus is always on the city. I couldn't imagine if we were merged and a storm like 2010 happened where philly got 28" and NYC nada. Snow is serious business for some folks... I agre but I feel this sub is dead other than for obs during events. I feel disenfranchised to the discussion as I watch from the sidelines in the NYC or Mid-Atlantic threads. An obs region specific topic in the forum during events could help IMBY issues. I know this is off topic but it’s just my two cents. I think we’ve seen a lot of good posters leave for other sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: I read both, have some good Mets. on both. agreed. I have no ill will towards anyone that posts there and I also read both because most of the red taggers post there. I do find this board more comfortable to post though because of how small it is, I feel like I can add something to the discussion. With the amount of red taggers and really knowledgeable weenies there, I just don't feel I can add anything to the discussion usually that hasn't been brought up and don't usually feel comfortable asking questions either. I like that the vibe is just more laid back here and that I've been posting with Birds, Redsky, Ralph, and others(you too if you were captain har for awhile like I think you were) for a good ten+ years now... it just feels much more comfortable. Like regulars at a bar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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