Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 3-4 "Threat"


anthonyweather

Recommended Posts

The mid-level closed cyclones actually pass over Cape Cod this run. I supposed there is room for another adjustment West. It also looked like it was more of capture at the end of the run by the trough rather than a kick. Everyone that lives within the darker shade of green should at least get a period of decent snow.

5a4ce54cba120.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 448
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Thanks Ralph. 50 miles east of hatteras and I would feel confident that much of SE PA(Bucks/mont/del/phila) sees 3-6 inches, obviously less west and more east. Inside of 50 miles and I think SE PA gets into WSW snows...maybe not quite 6z NAM but a solid 4-8 inches. 
Get this to hatteras benchmark and we take our chances from there. Fate is going to come once it reaches that latitude imo and we see if it hugs the coastal baro zone or jumps east. Total nowcast imo.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

3k is a beauty irt the coastal front and extreme thermal barolcinicity setting up between BN land and AN ssts. Looks at that convection along the fronto band. b8425bd5322230cbb5b8ff1c918dc05f.jpg

wow :o :o I'm really looking forward to the new GOES 16 visible shots tomorrow. They will be an absolute beauty. Even infrared tonight as the storm explode should be very very awesome to watch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 3k NAM shows 12"+ amounts well inland. The numbers below are too low for coastal sections, but ratios will be less there because of the stronger wind, especially for Suffolk. There could also be some brief mixing on the South shore, especially in the usual areas.

5a4ce79191321.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

and for a lot of our area. I mean not to their level but this is a 6-10" storm if it verifies for much of SE PA and SNJ with lollies of a ft in SNJ.  Even NNJ sees 3-6". Voyager would be very close to or over 3 inches as well. Great run for just about everyone in this subforum except maybe the immediate coast as it is possible there would be mixing issues.

I saw that. It actually throws out a 7 inch amount up on the ridge/plateau of Hazleton north of me. I wasn't expecting to see this, and while I take what it's showing with a grain of salt, I'm kind of intrigued now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
wow emoji33.png emoji33.png I'm really looking forward to the new GOES 16 visible shots tomorrow. They will be an absolute beauty. Even infrared tonight as the storm explode should be very very awesome to watch.

The higher resolution stuff will possibly school the globals with this one. Insane.

I don't think any of us expected this much of a reversal but most of us never gave up on this one coming back. Sometimes seasonal trends are the best tool for mid range forecasting. Both of us said to watch this over the weekend when it was in Bermuda as the trend for storms to trend north and west this year as been a common theme. That along with the fact deep systems like this typically verify further NW than foretasted kept me hanging on. To me when the globals continued to trend west yesterday afternoon and night, and continued to spit out weird precip distribution with big convective blobs and multiple low structures I had a feeling the meso's would have a better handle on the storm. Now it is not set in stone yet, but based on the fact the globals have continually trended towards the meso's and not vice versa leads me to believe they have the best idea on this storm. It's not only because they happen to give me the most snow... :lol: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm surprised we only have 18 members here currently.

In any event, folks that live on the immediate coast shouldn't be worried about a lot of mixing. 

The philly board just doesn't have a huge member base anymore. Many of them post on the "other board". A lot of good stuff there too and I miss a lot of those posters but the smaller group is nice during big events as we all get along and thread doesn't grow at an exponential rate making it hard to keep up with what is going on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented.

Everyone seems to push for this and I know not why. If this were merged with NYC, I probably would post very little in here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

The philly board just doesn't have a huge member base anymore. Many of them post on the "other board". A lot of good stuff there too and I miss a lot of those posters but the smaller group is nice during big events as we all get along and thread doesn't grow at an exponential rate making it hard to keep up with what is going on. 

I read both, have some good Mets. on both.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

The sub needs needs to be merged with NYC. I love the posters here but the sub is dead and too fragmented.

I wouldn't care either way but the NYC board is already super NYC-centric...I know long island and NW NJ and NYC burbs folks already find that annoying. If a storm isn't a city threat then the thread tends to be all negative and emo and if it is a city threat the focus is always on the city. I couldn't imagine if we were merged and a storm like 2010 happened where philly got 28" and NYC nada.  Snow is serious business for some folks...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I wouldn't care either way but the NYC board is already super NYC-centric...I know long island and NW NJ and NYC burbs folks already find that annoying. If a storm isn't a city threat then the thread tends to be all negative and emo and if it is a city threat the focus is always on the city. I couldn't imagine if we were merged and a storm like 2010 happened where philly got 28" and NYC nada.  Snow is serious business for some folks...

I agre but I feel this sub is dead other than for obs during events. I feel disenfranchised to the discussion as I watch from the sidelines in the NYC or Mid-Atlantic threads. An obs region specific  topic in the forum during events could help IMBY issues. I know this is off topic but it’s just my two cents. I think we’ve seen a lot of good posters leave for other sub forums. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

I read both, have some good Mets. on both.

agreed. I have no ill will towards anyone that posts there and I also read both because most of the red taggers post there. I do find this board more comfortable to post though because of how small it is, I feel like I can add something to the discussion. With the amount of red taggers and really knowledgeable weenies there, I just don't feel I can add anything to the discussion usually that hasn't been brought up and don't usually feel comfortable asking questions either. I like that the vibe is just more laid back here and that I've been posting with Birds, Redsky, Ralph, and others(you too if you were captain har for awhile like I think you were) for a good ten+ years now... it just feels much more comfortable. Like regulars at a bar...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...