Lady Di Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sorry, but I need to ask, what is the NAM missing in comparison to the other models? Is it normal for it to be the outlier at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: But wouldn't a further south rain-snow line indicate the faster intrusion of cold air, leading to the trough going neutral-negative earlier as the discussion above mentioned? which I think would bring the associated low further west correct? I think the precip distribution being further n and w is what is important on the low's locations, not the r/s line? Or am I missing something? A deepening low further south means it occludes sooner and can therefore be shunted further east and see its precip shield shrink as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Lady Di said: Sorry, but I need to ask, what is the NAM missing in comparison to the other models? Is it normal for it to be the outlier at this range? The NAM is almost always an outlier and almost always too wet at this range. Unless other models move towards it, I’d take it with several grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Lady Di said: Sorry, but I need to ask, what is the NAM missing in comparison to the other models? Is it normal for it to be the outlier at this range? The NAM is a short range mesoscale model whereas the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF and GGEM are all global models, which means those models incorporate data from all around the world. The NAM only incorporates data over North America. For various other reasons that I won't elaborate on, the NAM is prone to wild swings, even at very short ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: A deepening low further south means it occludes sooner and can therefore be shunted further east and see its precip shield shrink as well. Yes, I think in the Mid-Atlantic forum is waiting to see if there's a change to rain at Norfolk as a positive sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: A deepening low further south means it occludes sooner and can therefore be shunted further east and see its precip shield shrink as well. We don't want this system to occlude until it reaches the Gulf of Maine. The best dynamics will always occur while the storm is deepening. Once the low closes off at H5 the storm should reach maximum intensity. We need that to occur no further South than say 38N or preferably 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 We need to see where the actual lp is in regards to when it approaches Hatteras. I cant stress this enough. H5 features are not going to shift much now imo. It is going to come down to meso stuff such as fronto lift/forcing along coastal front, baro zone right along coast, convection depth nearer coast vs off the east. We need the lp to track no farther than 50 miles East of Hatteras for SE PA to get in on a few inches. We get this to track 20-40 miles East of Hatteras it will be game on and the NAM from 6z wins. Critical benchmark location for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Early on in the run, but the trough is sharper on the NAM, would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is mayhem.....NJwx85 posting here, whopper posting in mid atl, cows outside standing on their heads. Something's brewing :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: A deepening low further south means it occludes sooner and can therefore be shunted further east and see its precip shield shrink as well. Ok that makes sense, earlier low further south stops deepening at a latitude further south, occludes and is kicked east by the kicker? Makes sense. I will say that the early precip is further N and W so far much closer to the NAM and RGEM/HDRGEM and the euro has verified the precip too far south and east so far. Might not mean anything but interesting to point out so far. IMO looks like the low is forming near JAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Early on in the run, but the trough is sharper on the NAM, would be a good sign.NAM will probably go bonkers again. That isnt my concern. Getting the other mesos to at least step towards it would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We need to see where the actual lp is in regards to when it approaches Hatteras. I cant stress this enough. H5 features are not going to shift much now imo. It is going to come down to meso stuff such as fronto lift/forcing along coastal front, baro zone right along coast, convection depth nearer coast vs off the east. We need the lp to track no farther than 50 miles East of Hatteras for SE PA to get in on a few inches. We get this to track 20-40 miles East of Hatteras it will be game on and the NAM from 6z wins. Critical benchmark location for us. Thanks Ralph. 50 miles east of hatteras and I would feel confident that much of SE PA(Bucks/mont/del/phila) sees 3-6 inches, obviously less west and more east. Inside of 50 miles and I think SE PA gets into WSW snows...maybe not quite 6z NAM but a solid 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Ok that makes sense, earlier low further south stops deepening at a latitude further south, occludes and is kicked east by the kicker? Makes sense. I will say that the early precip is further N and W so far much closer to the NAM and RGEM/HDRGEM and the euro has verified the precip too far south and east so far. Might not mean anything but interesting to point out so far. IMO looks like the low is forming near JAX. Also, if it occludes, it shuts off the moisture source which in turn will shrink the precip shield. Think of it as the spigot being shut off from the hose and then the hose simply is left to drain. We see this a lot once systems occlude. the precip shield almost immediately begins to degrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM has the coastal front and thermo baro gradient right on the coast. My theory from 3 days ago is working out.....at least on the NAM. Im either as weenie-ish and faulty as the NAM or actually maybe learned something over the years. Blind squirrel nut theory is my guess :-D Eta: For those unclear of what im talking about, watch the precip pointing ENE just off mid atl coast from 6z now pointing NNE at 12z. Thats your front/boundary i feel is going to influence track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That lead vort is faster, should be allowed to get further North before it gets kicked. Storm looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12Z NAM LOW POSITION slightly further east, but precip shield has expanded to central PA EDIT: may just be that it is quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 About to get kicked, but looks further North than 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow this is actually making it a lot further North. Death band sig over SNE and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 ^Definitely looks further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Once the system reaches 38N you can see it take a sharp right hook. It can only make it so far before it gets pushed OTS, but this run was definitely a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Storm is also 2mb stronger (if you can believe it) at 15Z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Notable tug NW between 20-23 hours as it approaches delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I will say this, despite having no mods and very few red taggers present in this sub forum we have a really good set of amateurs here for storm discussion. I usually learn something new with every storm and typically the analysis is fair and not overly weenie ...especially since we're mostly just a bunch of weenies . The fact that we police ourselves more or less says a lot about this group and no one here really is a dick. I actually like that we aren't crazy active as it is really easy to keep up with a thread. Great job everyone, yous guys make tracking and nowcasting a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Banding stops at the Hudson river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is mayhem.....NJwx85 posting here, whopper posting in mid atl, cows outside standing on their heads. Something's brewing :-D On a side note, starting to see the cirrus clouds to the south moving NNE'ward at my location. I quite honestly don't know what to root for with this one. Anything less than 3-6 and I'd prefer nothing...which is a distinct possibility being this far north and west from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is a great run for Long Island and Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Notable tug NW between 20-23 hours as it approaches delmarva. Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Storm still passes Southeast of the BM, which means the city gets scraped by the banding and most of NJ and the LHV are outside the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k is a beauty irt the coastal front and extreme thermal barolcinicity setting up between BN land and AN ssts. Looks at that convection along the fronto band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is a great run for Long Island and Southern New England. and for a lot of our area. I mean not to their level but this is a 6-10" storm if it verifies for much of SE PA and SNJ with lollies of a ft in SNJ. Even NNJ sees 3-6". Voyager would be very close to or over 3 inches as well. Great run for just about everyone in this subforum except maybe the immediate coast as it is possible there would be mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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