Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: 6z 12k NAM 10-12" Philly! 10:1 ratio You got NAM'd muahaha Yep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yep.. Why are we up Most likely this will be 15:1 ratio too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Why are we up Most likely this will be 15:1 ratio too Most likely. Thing is...it's probably not correct. Precip may be up but not to that extent. It would be nice though followed by winds = drifting which we haven't seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Even 50-70% of those totals would be excellent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Sucks being on the outside looking in on these events with sharp gradients, but who knows a few weeks back we were 1-2” range and ended up with 8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Not that it means much because I don't really consider Bill Henley a real Met but an on air personality but totals went down from last nights 6pm broadcast. 4am news: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not that it means much because I don't really consider Bill Henley a real Met but an on air personality but totals went down from last nights 6pm broadcast. That's because he opened his web browser, entered this address: http://www.weather.gov/phi/, then made his live forecast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z rgem and gfs really cut qpf west of I95. Track pretty much unchanged. Havent been able to get this to track to within 50 miles of Hatteras which is my benchmark for this storm for SE PA big snows. Really hoping the 12k NAM didnt just NAM us and really praying hard that 12z guidance gets back to a wetter look back this way. Even the CRAS went considerably drier. Down to the wire. Eta: removed 3k nam accidentally placed in first sentence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6abc 4:30am models/totals: Go Nam! lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAVGEM barely a flake in SE PA. All guidance now coming in line. Right now my best call for extreme SE PA is a 2-5" snowfall Eastern Delco, PHL, far NE Montco, Southern Bucks with amounts dropping rather quickly W of there. I wish I could love the NAM and want to but it is a complete outlier with its superstorm fully phased and closed off 500mb scenario. I would not complain.....72 hours ago this was headed east of Bermuda so to score a few inches back this way is a real win and Im excited for yet ANOTHER snowfall!!! Praying we dont see any last minute changes to the negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hrdps lp ticked W but precip cut quite bit W of I95 thru 34 hrs. Modeled ir satellite is a beaut tho......textbook cover worthy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow on that IR slide. SoMoCo FTW on snow and wind. Carbon Co FTW on backside temp extremes. Off to check the tide tables......Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z NAM's a decent hit for you weenies , not sure a band that strong will fire out that far from the center though. here comes the wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 lmao at 6z NAM. would give me close to a foot. it is either on to something and we will see precip increase across the board at 12z or it is just being the NAM and you can likely cut totals by 3/4th. could go either way at this point. this storm was in Bermuda 2 days ago so who really knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6abc 4:30am models/totals: Go Nam! lol....Fox is 100% exactly the same. Its like they are too timid to make their own call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fox is 100% exactly the same. Its like they are too timid to make their own call. Yeah, I seen that. Really, I don't think the morning Mets have the authority to make/change the call. Most of them are just personalities. You gotta think they would have to get to work at 1:30-2:00am (which I'm sure they don't) to look at the late GFS and EURO, analyze it, make a call then the graphics. I bet you they don't have a clue about the GFS/EURO till they arrive at work at 3am-ish since broadcast begins at 4-4:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Currently Mount Holly has no watches, warnings or advisories up west of the river. I'm going with 0"-4" IMBY. Whatever happens, there's a model we'll be able to look back on and say, "such & such nailed it from x days out". Good luck everyone, let the radar hallucinations begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can't speak for anyone but my self, but since I'm a go big or go home type of guy when it comes to snow, I'd just as soon smoke the eastern cirrus clouds than have to deal with an inch of snow out of this thing. One inch is enough to bring the salt trucks out and make everything even sloppier than it already is. Not to mention having to sweep/shovel because it's going to be too cold afterward for any kind of melting. Now, I'd feel different if we were progged to get a 6 inch plus storm, but we aren't, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 give me 3 inches to keep chugging along towards an above average snow year from this, get below zero afterwards and some good wind and the storm will have exceeded expectations. if the nam verified I wouldn't b**ch about another storm screwing me for at least 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can't speak for anyone but my self, but since I'm a go big or go home type of guy when it comes to snow, I'd just as soon smoke the eastern cirrus clouds than have to deal with an inch of snow out of this thing. One inch is enough to bring the salt trucks out and make everything even sloppier than it already is. Not to mention having to sweep/shovel because it's going to be too cold afterward for any kind of melting. Now, I'd feel different if we were progged to get a 6 inch plus storm, but we aren't, so...Glad it was only the NAM showing the big hit overnight. If the gfs or euro had done that then pulled the rug it would be ugly. I think most here realize the NAM isnt going to verify and is all alone in how it gets to that solution. Most folks in this subforum have been very realistic and smartly set their expectations low for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: give me 3 inches to keep chugging along towards an above average snow year from this, get below zero afterwards and some good wind and the storm will have exceeded expectations. if the nam verified I wouldn't b**ch about another storm screwing me for at least 2 years Yep, that's what I have in my head. No less than 2"....3" hopefully...3+" a bonus then wind and frigid temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Glad it was only the NAM showing the big hit overnight. If the gfs or euro had done that then pulled the rug it would be ugly. I think most here realize the NAM isnt going to verify and is all alone in how it gets to that solution. Most folks in this subforum have been very realistic and smartly set their expectations low for this one. what? I'm preparing for a meltdown if I see any less than 8 inches after the 6z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 btw very interesting write up out of Greenville Spartanburg NWS "Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Fox future cast radar has cirrus nw of i95, nary a flake lol. She is being extremely cautious and conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 mt hollys 6 am map looks pretty good though I think SNJ is too low. I understand the caution though. I expect a Wwa for se pa (bucks/mont/del/phila counties) and totals to inch up later this afternoon across the board. i think the mt holly guys have done great handling the storm. not overly conservative and not bullish either. have communicated the potential for more and less based on track very effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 While we're all watching down south, let's keep our eyes on the northern kicker. Regardless of how west the storm tracks, our fate rests with that northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, The Iceman said: btw very interesting write up out of Greenville Spartanburg NWS "Currently, water vapor imagery shows the amplified system already attempting to acquire a neutral tilt as it moves into western Mississippi. Additional height falls are indicated upstream over the plains and the fear is that an injection of cold and dry air into the back of the trough axis will deepen the feature more sharply and farther west than indicated by the models" they might be onto something. first glance at radar down in Florida and I thought the same. even the snow line seems a bit further south than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fox future cast radar has cirrus nw of i95, nary a flake lol. She is being extremely cautious and conservative. After last march's debacle of the news stations hyping widespread 18-24"+ and blizzard conditions that turned to be 3-6" of mostly sleet for most of the area, it's hard to blame her. And that storm had a much better consensus than this one. I really think most stations would rather forecast a period of snow with fairly low totals right now so people will expect accumulating snow and honestly for most places with the start time of the storm will be enough alone for closures. The stations don't mind busting low on this as there is a high risk factor on forecasting significant snowfall outside of the shore. kind of a win-win for them. If it verifies higher they can say well at least we informed our viewers days in advance of accumulating/snow covered roads on Thursday morning but it ended up just being a bit more than forecast, and if it is lower they can say they didn't expect it to be a big deal anyway. Even if guidance fully shifts towards the NAM, I don't think they will drastically increase totals until the event is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 they might be onto something. first glance at radar down in Florida and I thought the same. even the snow line seems a bit further south than expected. We want to see the snow line farther n and w actually to let us know the lp is also accordingly n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 10 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: they might be onto something. first glance at radar down in Florida and I thought the same. even the snow line seems a bit further south than expected. We want to see the snow line farther n and w actually to let us know the lp is also accordingly n and w. But wouldn't a further south rain-snow line indicate the faster intrusion of cold air, leading to the trough going neutral-negative earlier as the discussion above mentioned? which I think would bring the associated low further west correct? I think the precip distribution being further n and w is what is important on the low's locations, not the r/s line? Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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