shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS 3-4" SEPA and it's STILL playing catch up putting too much convection east Maybe it's nit picky, but I don't see anywhere higher than 2" west of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Stormman96 said: Am I missing something. I thought things were trending better tonight. Just watched kathy orr an she has 1-3 for philly less nw an more se an says based off latest guidance she may have to lower totals??? My Guess she is relying on the 12K Nam unless she has early access to the UK or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Am I missing something. I thought things were trending better tonight. Just watched kathy orr an she has 1-3 for philly less nw an more se an says based off latest guidance she may have to lower totals??? Because I'm guessing that's putting more weight on the GFS than the mesoscale models (NAM, RGEM, etc.) The 12k NAM seems to be the dry outlier from that group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GEM 6" mark to Philly This is a snowball rolling down the hill no stopping it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Am I missing something. I thought things were trending better tonight. Just watched kathy orr an she has 1-3 for philly less nw an more se an says based off latest guidance she may have to lower totals??? How about that weather girl on 10 what is she saying flurries N&W of Philly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: How about that weather girl on 10 what is she saying flurries N&W of Philly lol I was just referring to the 0z GFS which shows about 1-2" for SEPA. Now I have no idea what model guidance each network met relies on or if it's a mix. It's gonna be a tough sell to go from flurries to 4-6" if it happens. 2-4 would be a safe bet and can be upped to 4-6 or dropped to 1-2 without too much backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If im not mistaken the 12z ggem had more snow so a decrease in totals not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Funny thing is on the GGEM, we're at the stage where the slp is no longer dumbbell shaped, but nice and consolidated closer to the coast. The issue looks like if it comes any further west we'll start seeing mixing issues. Mix line is already at LBI this last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormman96 said: If im not mistaken the 12z ggem had more snow so a decrease in totals not good Yes, it had a coastal front that was west of the slp which gave us the convection and qpf. This run the slp is west, and the coastal front is gone dropping qpf and bringing warm air closer as well. Just doesn't look like this storm is going to "pop" above 4-6" for SEPA. Any more changes to bring up qpf look to bring in temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS 3-4" SEPA and it's STILL playing catch up putting too much convection east I have a good feeling about this now guys, think we are headed for 4-8" in SEPA and eventually a blizzard far S&E areas At least a 3-6" in se pa barring a complete reversal and yes on the b along coast. Nobody even mentioned temps 19-24f Thursday. Decent ratio stuff.....15:1ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I still don't see it coming together. Essentially, we need a faster (but not weaker) southern stream and a slower, weaker northern stream to keep the N/S from kicking the dynamics east before they gain latitude. GFS shows how tough that it. It looks to me like the GFS initializes the northern energy a little weaker, which is good, but also initializes the southern energy weaker as well. So you get a little slower SLP which gets kicked out a little later, but still gets kicked out before it gets to our lat, 'cause its too slow to get here. The basic problem is that there are lots of ways it misses east (N/S stronger, S/S stronger; stronger, weaker; weaker, weaker) but only one that keeps it close enough, long enough (weaker N/S, stronger S/S). You see that in the ensembles, where only a few members mix and match the right combo. That doesn't mean it can't come together, but I don't really see much evidence it's coming together in that combo... which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If im not mistaken the 12z ggem had more snow so a decrease in totals not goodStop looking at qpf maps. Focus on upper levels....the surface stuff is playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: At least a 3-6" in se pa barring a complete reversal and yes on the b along coast. Nobody even mentioned temps 19-24f Thursday. Decent ratio stuff.....15:1ish How much do you think that slp can tighten up and move west before shoving warmer air and precip type issues into the equation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I had to do it, i had to turn on the tv and watch 10 weather, she has Berks County smoking cirrus lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I had to do it, i had to turn on the tv and watch 10 weather, she has Berks County smoking cirrus lol I think everyone will be in virga heaven for quite a while either way with how dry the air is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How much do you think that slp can tighten up and move west before shoving warmer air and precip type issues into the equation?Unless you are directly on the coast I dont see an issue at all unless the storm somehow tracks west of you. 850 low in a good spot, winds have a N component entire time. Temps inland should not be an issue at all. Even shore points with coastal front hanging off the coast I dont see an issue tbh. Unless the slp and 850 go west of your area which 99.9% chance isnt going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I had to do it, i had to turn on the tv and watch 10 weather, she has Berks County smoking cirrus lol Please no!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res RGEM looks epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Newman said: Please no!!!! She had you smoking cirrus December 9th how did that turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Hi res RGEM looks epic! Whats epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hrdps increased snowfall in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: She had you smoking cirrus December 9th how did that turn out? 8 inches with not even a winter weather advisory lol. Hopefully this storm is similar in that a band can setup on the NW shield and dump snow for those of us further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Whats epic? It's still running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Newman said: 8 inches with not even a winter weather advisory lol. Hopefully this storm is similar in that a band can setup on the NW shield and dump snow for those of us further inland. I still can't get over it that was our regions biggest over performer the last 25 years Only event i remember that beat it was the thunderstorm snow in February 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hrdps increased snowfall in SE PA. It ended up slipping east like the 12k NAM but with more snow and resembles the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Whats epic? I think epic might be a bit over exaggeration for this. West of the river along 95 maybe 4-6" (maybe 6-8" with higher ratios). SNJ maybe 6-8" or 8-10". Western Montco only 1-2" so you can see the gradient is sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ukie says no go..... dry west of i95. Globals vs the mesos in one of the best fights of all time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ukie says no go..... dry west of i95. Globals vs the mesos in one of the best fights of all time! Just as we were hitting our zenith and all was right with the world we get the crazy uncle crashing the party...again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 DT says similar to the last minute shifts for Jan 25, 2000 Oh no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6z 12k NAM 10-12" Philly! 10:1 ratio You got NAM'd muahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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