The Iceman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I would bet someone in the shore sees a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How much do you think I'm gonna get here in Ocean county? Is a foot possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yummmm, tasty Whopper. Models didnt disappoint today. Major trends in our favor. I95 East definitely in more of a bullseye but precip should get back west of I95 as well. I did see the GFS is stubborn but has made some improvements at 500mb. As I have been saying, lets get this to near Hatteras no more than 50 miles East. That is my benchmark spot. If it comes inside of 50 miles East this is going to bring the heavier precip farther West. We have seen big jumps west with lp at the surface. I know people are saying "but but but the precip shield is tightening". That is all well and good but if the trends continue the storm will keep ticking far enough West to impact I95 significantly. I am in awe at the strength and evolution of this beast on guidance. 0z will be telling. If things tick East it is probably game over for West of I95 with very minor accums if any. If the models generally remain status quo we are probably looking at a 1-3"/2-4" event in extreme SE PA. If ticks West continue I truly believe a MECS is staring us in the face. In any event, East of I95 looks like prime area. Of course too far West and they could be looking at mixing issues at the shore. I want to see guidance take this about 30-50 miles East of Hatteras tonight as a trend and I will feel good. Very impressive storm. Our fate is probably close to being determined. GL all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How much do you think I'm gonna get here in Ocean county? Is a foot possible?:snowman:Yes. It wont take major shifts at this point to vary amounts. 40 miles West and a foot or more looks solid. 40 miles East and just a few inches. Fingers crossed for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I would bet someone in the shore sees a foot. That's why I think accu-weather's map above is kinda ridiculous...looks like a 3rd grader was doing the graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bosswx said: How much do you think I'm gonna get here in Ocean county? Is a foot possible? Guess: 6"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is quite a bit west at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 And yet it kicks nearly due east and at 39 we are worse off. I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's just amazing how every run for every model, the slp is getting closer and closer to Hatteras to only get kicked harder and harder NE each time. Must be something of that northern energy finally coming down around the end of the trough and kicking the storm east. We always go with a Lucy analogy for missing a storm. To actually get this one we need Charlie Brown to miss that kick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is screaming MECS. Ignore the surface verbatim. Critical panel is at 33 hours. We are seeing a trend towards energy in the Ohio Valley amplifying more and extremely extremely close to pinching off a closed low in that area. That amplification and potential closed low there is the mechanism that will either draw this N or allow it to escape. This is so so close to being a MECS it isnt funny. It took another step in the right direction. Everything up to 33 hours even 36 was almost perfection. Got to my benchmark just East of Hatteras and BARELY escaped east. For anyone who wants to hug only the surface you can take solace in that it looks like Boston has major mixing issues if not rain. 1 down and another step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It's just amazing how every run for every model, the slp is getting closer and closer to Hatteras to only get kicked harder and harder NE each time. Must be something of that northern energy finally coming down around the end of the trough and kicking the storm east. We always go with a Lucy analogy for missing a storm. To actually get this one we need Charlie Brown to miss that kick.CRAS has been consistently showing a capture and has had us getting hit hard and in deform banding for about 5 runs now going back 60 hours so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Or we could just hug the 0z 3k NAM. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k NAM 6-7" SEPA take it and go to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3K gives all of SEPA 5-8”. Shore points 12+. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: 3k NAM 6-7" SEPA take it and go to bed And most likely wake up tomorrow morning to the 6z NAM giving 1-2". lol It all comes down to that northern energy kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 These big deep storms usually dont just jump or get bumped like a pinball. I know there is more to it but I find it very suspect with little upper level support for a kick like some are suggesting. I looked at the NAM and RGEM again and 2 things stand out: 1) the jump or kick happens right when a convective flareup is happening off to the East. However, there is a heck of alot more convection firing nearer the Gulf Stream now that these hi res models are seeing and I think this is a function of the thermal gradient between BN temps over land and AN sst's near the Gulf Stream. 2) this jump is happening farther N or delayed longer with each run. Again I think this is a function of such a strong thermal gradient near the coast as you approach the mid atl the 2m temp anomalies have been greater than say down in SC. Ground farther N in latitude is frozen solid. Many areas havent been above freezing for several days. Ssts in the Gulf Stream are even more anomalous to the AN side off the mid atl. However, keep in mind the gulf stream is also farther off the coast the farther N of Hatteras you go. I say get this monster near 50 miles East or less from Hatteras and even with the baro zone being a little east, a storm sub 960 is going to need to take a hell of a bump to get kicked ENE. The OV energy is amplifying S or just E of South and doesnt look like a kicker in the sense of the term. I think the NAM has gotten us one step closer. We need rest of 0z to cooperate. There is still time for relatively decent shifts at the surface. It wont take much change aloft. Im not full-in yet but the trends are undeniable. Its not like we keep taking baby steps back.....quite the contrary in all actuality. This *could* be one of those system the models never truly handle accurately even when upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If we were going to have a 950smb low blizzard in 48 hours, the models would be doing different things, like trending S-N vs more SW-NE, it's too far out to sea for its moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just taking a look at the 3k vs 12k NAM, you can see how the norther energy matters. In the 12k NAM the H5 is closed off at 534 basically straight off the coast of NC. The 3k NAM has the H5 closed off at 528 and is off the VA/NC border. Northern energy coming around the trough is exactly the same spot on both models. 12k gets punted east and 3k tucked in North. That right now is the difference in where this storm goes. Southern energy slower and it gets punted, Northern energy faster and punted. Right timing... Wrong timing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is a crusher! Trends continue...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM is a crusher! Trends continue...... Actually I think it won't be that much. slp is well east of 3k NAM location, and precip rates don't look to be as high on the surface maps. 0z better for Mid Atlantic, but still not much better for our entire area yet. Still is better than 12k NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Surface low didn't come west but the precip. field did. compared to the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks like one convective band gives most of the SEPA/SNJ area it's snow. It even leaves LBI less than 5". Definitely don't like the idea of having to toss my eggs in one deform band basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z Gfs rolling.... lets see if the surface maps can catch up with the upper levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks a bit quicker and closer to the coast with the southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 0z Gfs rolling.... lets see if the surface maps can catch up with the upper levels...3-6" SE PA on the rgem. That is more than deformation banding snow based off of 700mb rh. Fronto lifting pushing west does the deed. Coastal front big player. As for gfs I dont expect any major changes. It seems like it has been very slowly and stubbornly ticking at h5 towards mesos. Surface has been a few steps behind. I fully expect the global stubbornness to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has double barrell slp and H5 never closes off, leading the storm to still sit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Seems the gfs can't decide which convective area offshore to focus on. Mesos may be better at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS has double barrell slp and H5 never closes off, leading the storm to still sit more east. Pretty much what I expected the GFS to do. It made minor improvements at 500mb but nothing earth shattering. Actually ticks qpf up slightly in SE PA and NJ while the lp is a hair E of last run. We are nearing the range where more weight needs to be given to the higher resolution guidance and less on the globals imo. Not saying the gfs cant be correct. I would just think the mesos are available to us for a reason to see some of the finer details and nuances of storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GFS 3-4" SEPA and it's STILL playing catch up putting too much convection east I have a good feeling about this now guys, think we are headed for 4-8" in SEPA and eventually a blizzard far S&E areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Am I missing something. I thought things were trending better tonight. Just watched kathy orr an she has 1-3 for philly less nw an more se an says based off latest guidance she may have to lower totals??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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