hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 12Z RGEM continues the tick W and better Westward expansion of precip: I said I was waiting till 12Z today, then I was out. Well........guess I am still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: I said I was waiting till 12Z today, then I was out. Well........guess I am still in. I am having a Whopper with cheese in your honor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 NYC board is seeing it too. Enjoy the Whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I don't care about the low pressure system tracking more west (it would be nice), I'm looking for the precip shield to expand further to the west. I would be much more comfortable with a further west precip shield with lighter QPF than being fringed by a more eastern one albeit with heavier QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 well, GFS is further west, but still not quite where we need it at this point. On to the Ukie and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The clippers have been over performing due to the higher ratio's, it will be interesting to see how the coastal does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ralph has a huge advantage over most of us with home bases in Doylestown and Cape May, he can't lose in the big gradient east west wars lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Newman said: I don't care about the low pressure system tracking more west (it would be nice), I'm looking for the precip shield to expand further to the west. I would be much more comfortable with a further west precip shield with lighter QPF than being fringed by a more eastern one albeit with heavier QPF. Same here...it's been has very stubborn to advance west. Well, today the models are starting off good after crappy runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Following this for days knowing out here in the wilderness my chances are slim and none but still pulling for the chance to squeeze a couple inches somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Following this for days knowing out here in the wilderness my chances are slim and none but still pulling for the chance to squeeze a couple inches somehow This is logic I just can't understand. Somehow for me, there is nothing more infuriating than getting the same paltry 2 inches out of a potential coastal monster that I would out of a run of the mill clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Voyager said: This is logic I just can't understand. Somehow for me, there is nothing more infuriating than getting the same paltry 2 inches out of a potential coastal monster that I would out of a run of the mill clipper. I have adapted to not be infuriated anymore. Yet I know if I moved to Monmouth County where I have some family this reality would flip to the old normal with more snow N&W of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 CMC is much further west with precip. Even further west than the RGEM. Gives everyone in SE PA 3-6" with 6-12" through jersey increasing towards the coast. The GFS has been lowest in model verification in the last month FWIW. Big Ukie and Euro runs coming up. If guidance continues ticking the precip west, we may be in good shape. We've had several storms this year materialize 24-36 hours out and this one is certainly trending towards at least an advisory level event for se pa and a low level warning event for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Still thinking 1" to 3" West of 476 - 3" to 5" I95 and 6" to 10" toward Jersey Shore....although 12z NAM not looking good... Huh? NAM is a shift West and taking the low near Hatteras. H5 improved dramatically. All bets are off if the hi res continue this look. The NAM has not caved to the globals. Yep but not to the point it needs to be to verify the above....that said I am still thinking from I95 east is in good shape for a plowable event...now in my neck of the woods in NW Chesco...not so much. I am actually travelling back today from down here on the Jersey Shore in Sea Isle City....If I was a true weenie I would stay here or come back tomorrow night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 If any interest thoughts from JB at WB "Remember the ratios will be higher, but when we are talking about feedback development, the models like the NAM and RGEM should be best, That the Canadian global model and ensembles have seen what they have seen may be because they are not as complex so they dont see the kind of feedback that fast that the GFS does. which spins things up fast, So what happens is the that until these features get close to the verification time, the complex global models may start estimating quicker where something may form spin it up and then take off, The Canadian global is likely not as sophisticated as the Euro so it does not start the feedback, However as we get closer, the regional models should have the better handle and NAM makes sense to me, Think about it, how does a storm blowing up move away from the trough trying to capture it with height rises to its northeast and over a warm ocean. So a correction west makes sense, In any case using higher ratios we see that this could be a shut down storm in the coastal mid Atlantic to New England and perhaps as far west as DC to NYC in the I-95 corridor ( if you get 6 inches of powder and bitter cold with high winds to follow, its not a picnic, But my point is the NAM and RGEM looks close to what I have been envisioning the past 3 days. It cant be longer than that cause I bit on the out to sea idea 4 days ago with that one Euro run So with the storm doing what the NAM says ( though I think amounts will be 2-3 x NE NC to NJ (have fun measuring) and the arctic air following we could have some lows that are about as cold as they can get in the areas getting this snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ukie doesn't look any better the globals are stubborn with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Ukie doesn't look any better the globals are stubborn with this Globals will continue to be IMO. This is a highly convective storm that the meso's will have a better handle on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 51 minutes ago, Voyager said: This is logic I just can't understand. Somehow for me, there is nothing more infuriating than getting the same paltry 2 inches out of a potential coastal monster that I would out of a run of the mill clipper. I look at it as we didn't get completely shafted and the weather Gods threw us a bone. Sure I would like more as would everyone but a 2-3+" deal wouldn't be bad. Then we'll have winds coming in right behind along w/some frigid temps. Also we would have "snow on snow" which is always nice. Normal people just wouldn't understand....but weenies do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 euro looked much better at H5, moved fairly significantly west from 00z, but precip is still largely a miss. Really thought looking at H5, this was going to be the run that caves to the NAM/RGEM. Hopefully at 00z we begin to see a consensus one way or the other from the global and mesos. Based on the meso models, it looks like extreme se pa sees 3-6" with 6-12 from 295 and east. Based on the globals, SE PA sees a coating to 2" with jersey seeing 3-6". Very difficult forecast for the pros. I think MT holly's current most likely snowfall map is spot on for now. Wouldn't be surprised to see totals go either way but based on the trends at 12z, I will be surprised if this is a total miss for SE PA and eastward. Getting a WSW event outside of the shore is running out of time but with a few meso models showing that very thing, it can't be completely ruled out now(as shown on mt hollys 1 in 10 chance map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm not throwing in the towel yet (Might have to tomorrow evening), but I feel I'm definitely on the outside looking in on this one. The SREF's just cut back a lot for western NJ and PA. The only models that show any snow for out here are the Canadian Models. I know I said I feel this will keep trending west, but I'm getting uneasy with how much little time there's left for a shift west of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I am out at 18Z if models hold serve or shift east. This thing is for the fishes.....can't believe I even allowed myself a glimmer of hope. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 I'm not throwing in the towel yet (Might have to tomorrow evening), but I feel I'm definitely on the outside looking in on this one. The SREF's just cut back a lot for western NJ and PA. The only models that show any snow for out here are the Canadian Models. I know I said I feel this will keep trending west, but I'm getting uneasy with how much little time there's left for a shift west of the precip shield.But the thing is everything is Shifting west and it still is. The precip Shield is just not matching up to with whats going on up stairsSent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 EPS is further west with both precip and low placement though we are getting down to the end of usefulness of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: But the thing is everything is Shifting west and it still is. The precip Shield is just not matching up to with whats going on up stairs Sent from my LG-H871 using Tapatalk Yes, but after reading this I got a much more uneasy feeling. This guy knows what he's talking about. Check out the whole conversation by clicking the post. He's not necessarily discounting the western precip shield, but he's saying just because the low tracks further west doesn't mean the precip shield will be. There is a lot of CAA that will need to be overcome and our only hope is that the 250/300mb Jet can continue to trend better to allow for more upper level divergence and have the CAA overcome, resulting in the precip shield to expand. With such a tight, wound up system, there will be a lot of vertical lift near the center of the system and subsidence will need to occur somewhere. I hope the west trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I am out at 18Z if models hold serve or shift east. This thing is for the fishes.....can't believe I even allowed myself a glimmer of hope. STUPID, STUPID, STUPID! 18z we want the meso's to hold serve or even continue to tick west and the globals of course to continue ticking west. A trend east from the meso's or a hold serve by the globals at any point onward is game over. One side is going to cave at 00z tonight imo and I think we will see a hint toward which side that is at 18z. Now watch I say this and the 18z NAM and GFS both show hits for us only for them to shift back east at 00z...with this storm I really would not be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Here is Glenn's map....I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Somebody is pissed at the GFS! After a week with 4 runs a day only now does it see snow I'm by lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Here is Glenn's map....I'll take it. Of course you'll take it, you're in the 2"-4" zone while I'm screwed in the 1"-2" zone...lol! Seriously, give me 1"-2" to freshen up the current snow cover and I'm good. And yes, HM's tweets are awesome, wish he would still post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Of course you'll take it, you're in the 2"-4" zone while I'm screwed in the 1"-2" zone...lol! Seriously, give me 1"-2" to freshen up the current snow cover and I'm good. And yes, HM's tweets are awesome, wish he would still post here. I was waiting for someone to say that:) All in all though we're in the same boat. Not many times did I score and you didn't and vice-versa. We're relatively close and our amounts are usually pretty similar. Let's hope this is another over-achiever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Newman said: Yes, but after reading this I got a much more uneasy feeling. This guy knows what he's talking about. Check out the whole conversation by clicking the post. He's not necessarily discounting the western precip shield, but he's saying just because the low tracks further west doesn't mean the precip shield will be. There is a lot of CAA that will need to be overcome and our only hope is that the 250/300mb Jet can continue to trend better to allow for more upper level divergence and have the CAA overcome, resulting in the precip shield to expand. With such a tight, wound up system, there will be a lot of vertical lift near the center of the system and subsidence will need to occur somewhere. I hope the west trend continues. HM has just posted some more tweets, that are very interesting. Meteorologically, this is fascinating. Regardless what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6abc going pretty conservative especially along the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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