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January 3-4 "Threat"


anthonyweather

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2 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

So both gfs an nam are too far east no signs of heading west. I say its game set match. Another 2 days of my life wasted on this 

This was never really an opportunity.  Thus why I haven’t even bothered wasting any of my time on it.

With that being said, I don’t count anything out until 48 hours out from the “event”

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:
This was never really an opportunity.  Thus why I haven’t even bothered wasting any of my time on it.
With that being said, I don’t count anything out until 48 hours out from the “event”

We are at near 48 hours now. You out or in bro?

At 48 the low is directly east of Savannah and we are still at least 12 hours from onset of any precipitation in our forecast area.  I give it to 12z tomorrow then I am out.

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At 48 the low is directly east of Savannah and we are still at least 12 hours from onset of any precipitation in our forecast area.  I give it to 12z tomorrow then I am out.
Likewise. Everything 0z seemed to tick east. Not good. We do still have some guidance showing that baroclinic blob on the West of the lp which drops several inches in SE PA. Trends were not good tho tonight.
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8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Well, pretty much all the models wet the bed...even the Euro. Uggh at all the time wasted tracking this thing.This has been/is in my top 5 most frustrating storms to track with its ups and downs and it may not be done yet...

Chuck said “hang in there”......heard Euro was west......

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Well, pretty much all the models wet the bed...even the Euro. Uggh at all the time wasted tracking this thing.This has been/is in my top 5 most frustrating storms to track with its ups and downs and it may not be done yet...

We still have the CRAS lol. Funny thing is it has been extremely consistent...reminds me of Boxing day Storm when it was the only model that nailed the 500mb trof until about 48 hrs out where other guidance joined it. I did note a tick East tho which puts us in the bullseye.

 

NAM 6z took a large jump West and gives Eastern PA accum snow fwiw. 6z GFS also adjusted the 500mb trof about 75 miles farther West. Some changes but likely too little too late?f2f7bad7528afcbcc18304b3f87090ae.gif&key=67e7d0b6b18923e7cd7a81f43b9cd12d6be4a6775716147240387fb0bf78c9970fa61c9131b6f479290195a151611d99.gif&key=1e17882a67479ad49994f8b6319817497d211b67ee4fb97e73a28be3851511aa

 

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I think its safer to say SE PA sees some flakes tomorrow night and Thursday. Question now is how much? Fringe job and flurries/coating type stuff or a few inches? East of I95 should be watching this very closely. Could be a nice hit especially right near coast. Potential "b" word type stuff immediate coast if winds, rates, and temps are to be believed.

 

 

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57 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is super powerful storm. NAM is 954mb that far south, really surprised the reaction is so light, are we old or something? 

You trolling? EURO/GFS/NAM show very little snow west of I-95.

The storm could be 850mb but if we see clouds, who really cares?

When you have to pull out models like the CRAS to find snow, things are bad. Unless this turns around today on the models, or pulls some fluke miracle like Jan 2000, I think its time to face reality. 2 weeks of wasted cold followed by what is likely a warm up and some nice cutters. Its what we do here.

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After the 0z runs last night I was pretty sure we were totally out of the game. Woke up this morning only to find the 6z models trended west again. I think I have spent more time following the models on this one potential threat than I did all lst winter. What a hobby.

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45 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

You trolling? EURO/GFS/NAM show very little snow west of I-95.

The storm could be 850mb but if we see clouds, who really cares?

When you have to pull out models like the CRAS to find snow, things are bad. Unless this turns around today on the models, or pulls some fluke miracle like Jan 2000, I think its time to face reality. 2 weeks of wasted cold followed by what is likely a warm up and some nice cutters. Its what we do here.

..Almost the entire area is exclusively above average snowfall  for this time of the year. What the **** are you bitching about?

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

..Almost the entire area is exclusively above average snowfall  for this time of the year. What the **** are you bitching about?

There hasn't been any significant snowfall here in 2 years. I think we had maybe an inch total last year. At least in my backyard. Tons of wasted cold, followed by what will likely be a warm up and some rain. Please don't tell me a couple of December dustings make up for that.

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You trolling? EURO/GFS/NAM show very little snow west of I-95.
The storm could be 850mb but if we see clouds, who really cares?
When you have to pull out models like the CRAS to find snow, things are bad. Unless this turns around today on the models, or pulls some fluke miracle like Jan 2000, I think its time to face reality. 2 weeks of wasted cold followed by what is likely a warm up and some nice cutters. Its what we do here.
CRAS isnt the only model with snow fwiw.....it is the most consistent next to the GFS which as we know is well East. Either the hi res models are starting to key on the thermal baroclinicity along the coast I mentioned 2 days ago and seeing that feature better or they are over analyzing things. It is essentially globals vs hi res right you now. You do realize that right? And *IF* the hi res are picking up on the thermal boundaries more than the globals and have any sort of validity to them, it is an entirely different ballgame. Until the hi res bite and lose the weakness closer to the coast and jump to the globals I am not throwing in the towel. When/if they all jump to the globals then Im out. Still potential with this one. I will be happy with another 1-3" quite honestly. Fits the seasonal pattern which would almost assuredly get us AN for the year IF it continues. Proof that we dont need a monster storm and also proof that it can be reached in a cold pattern.
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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:
You trolling? EURO/GFS/NAM show very little snow west of I-95.
The storm could be 850mb but if we see clouds, who really cares?
When you have to pull out models like the CRAS to find snow, things are bad. Unless this turns around today on the models, or pulls some fluke miracle like Jan 2000, I think its time to face reality. 2 weeks of wasted cold followed by what is likely a warm up and some nice cutters. Its what we do here.

CRAS isnt the only model with snow fwiw.....it is the most consistent next to the GFS which as we know is well East. Either the hi res models are starting to key on the thermal baroclinicity along the coast I mentioned 2 days ago and seeing that feature better or they are over analyzing things. It is essentially globals vs hi res right you now. You do realize that right? And *IF* the hi res are picking up on the thermal boundaries more than the globals and have any sort of validity to them, it is an entirely different ballgame. Until the hi res bite and lose the weakness closer to the coast and jump to the globals I am not throwing in the towel. When/if they all jump to the globals then Im out. Still potential with this one. I will be happy with another 1-3" quite honestly. Fits the seasonal pattern which would almost assuredly get us AN for the year IF it continues. Proof that we dont need a monster storm and also proof that it can be reached in a cold pattern.

Fair enough. Thanks for the explanation. I'd also be happy with an inch or two. Would be enough for a morning coffee and a walk in the woods with the snow. I'd be happy with that.

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Im off to work but I can tell you this.....*IF* or when the GFS takes any movement/shift towards the hi res guidance, this board is going to erupt. Get the lp to near Hatteras, no more than 50 miles East, and we take our chances. That is our landmark. Then we track ENE OTS or NNE and a hit. Get this close to Hatteras dont look past that range yet. Think short term steps.

 

Eta: Sooooo close. Do you remember 48 hours ago when this was East of Bermuda??8a13016a705e46807dd39f623152804e.jpg

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